Smart guys making fatal blunders(mannfm11)

Arepeople that have made money in a long bull market actually smart? Noneof these asses has seen a real credit crunch. Few of them have workedthrough a real recession and that probably includes crapper himself.The stuff these hedges are going and the Quants is primarily theory andit appears they have the boat rocking. By that, I mean one thing isn'tworking, so lets all run over to the other side. I kind of believe thepublic that is smart enough to make a decision never got back into thismarket as an investment and these guys have been getting fat off ofcompanies buying back stock. The big buyback companies were a few wellheeled corporations and big banks. Guess what, the big banks aren'tbuying now and wish they hadn't. The rest aren't buying either becausemoney is about to get really tight. It is going to be one of thoseincidents where if you don't need money, you can borrow all you want,but if you need the stuff, forget it unless you are willing to pay up.There is no telling how much stock buyback money was borrowed becausedebt equity ratios of 50% are allowed in some industries, so why notborrow an amount equal to what you made and buy stock with it. The damnstuff was almost free anyhow. Something big is going bust thistime. Can't you tell? Look at the home builders. Are any of themactually solvent? Why are they running up in what promises to be thehousing bust of all time? Is Wall Street really thinking the subprimeis going to rise again and that they can get a bubble going in theareas where there wasn't one the last time rates went to the moon?These companies gave up their land, their lots and their profits to getout from under loans. There are too many houses and even if things workout, the peaks in these companies are based on much higher productionand pricing levels than we are going to see for a long time. What isgoing on here? The hedgies are all running to the buy side of the homebuilders boat. Smart guys making fatal blunders.
RE: Smart people	mannfm11	NEW 2/7/2008 10:59:28 PM
Moreon this subject. Anyone that thinks the Fed creates the basis of wealthin the US is a damn idiot and it appears that this version ispredominant on Wall Street. The Nasdaq lost over 50% from its level atthe first rate cut in 2001 to its bottom. The Dow was in the 10,500range and lost 3300 points. The SPX was around 1300 and bottomed at 769interday. That market went down because of a group of stocks that hadnever made any money. This one is going down because some of the mostprofitable entities in the world, the big financials, have hit aniceberg and are listing. These idiots don't think what happened inJapan, probably the money earningest country in the world over the past30 years, can't happen in the "they're in debt to their necks, USA".