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there is about to be a run on the money market accounts(mannfm11

(2008-02-16 11:37:45) 下一個
I am getting a feeling there is about to be a run on the money marketaccounts as the writing is on the wall with the failure of these muniauctions and the investment banks behind them to bid to take theircustomers out of the trades. Are they going to step in and keep themoney markets at a dollar for dollar redemption? The minute one of themdoesn't, the game is over.

I am suspecting that the street andthe government are buying time for the rats to get off the sinkingship. The devaluing dollar keeps money flowing to the US to purchasethe stocks of the US multinationals or I believe this market would bedown another 20%. It is clear that the Fed Chairman and the Secretary(who might be such a bull that he couldn't figure we were in trouble ifthey spelled it out to him) are loathe to mention how bad it really iswhen interviewed. This is a lot worse than subprime mortgages. As Dougfinishes up writing, old time conventional financing means aren't goingto keep this game going. Fictional models and fictional risks builtthis mess and now that they have failed, there is really nothing thatis going to keep it going. Old time lending standards would be likeputting a 3 HP lawn mower engine in a Rolls Royce and expecting it toaccelerate to freeway speed.

I am almost about to lose my mindlooking at some of this stuff as some of it on a trailing basis wouldmake me bullish if it wasn't for what I see in the real game, thefinancing game. It is hard to recognize that literally 100% of what wesee has been created by excessive financing, including the highearnings and as far as that goes, the recent Asian miracle. I fullyexpect China to implode along with the US and most likely even the oilproducing states go down. The dollar will survive better than thoughtunless the government and Fed refuse to allow the needed adjustment. Anearlier post about Ron Paul showed him saying how bad we needed arecession and we are to the point that the US could fail soon if wedon't have one. As Doug writes here, what transpired in financing andwhat we see going on right now bodes poorly for the economy, asfinancing is the economy in a fractional reserve boom/bust system. Igive it to about June before the real dust gets blown off the nextmajor entity, FNMA. Federal Agencies are already being priced fortrouble and as financing liquidity dries up, the trouble will show up.
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