30 month bear puts us in March of 2010(mannfm11)

	mannfm11	NEW 1/30/2008 5:18:24 PM
Ittook 30 months to reach bottom in the 2000-2002 run, 36 if you countthe March 2003 bottom, which was a little above the October 2002 bottomWe had a 60 month bull if you count 10/02 to 10/07, which isn't exactlyout of the realm. The tops of 7/07 and 10/07 almost mirror the bottomsof the summer of 02 and 10/02. I forget if the first bottom happened inJuly or August, but it was marginally exceeded by the second bottom inOctober if my brain is computing correctly. In any case,starting in 10/07, we have the final top to the bull run and runningthat forward 30 months puts us in March of 2010. Run it foward 36months, as the 2003 bottom is really where the last bear ended with themassive 6.85 trin reading or whatever the amazing number was. Thatwould put the bull at a fibonacci 55 months. I think the bottom of thisrun hasn't hit yet and will be fulfilled in March, 5 months after itstarted. Normally, we would be looking at a 21 month bear, but I thinkwe get 34 months. I also believe that we come out of this bear withvaluations that will at least to some extent make holding stocksworthwhile and us valuation bears can get out of the bear camp for thenext 15 years. I believe this will put us in the region of a 500 SPXand probably a double bottom or a little lower on the Dow. We are along way from being out of the woods here. The reason we are along way from being out of the woods is the financials are what createthe booms in this kind of economy and they are going to have toretrench quite a bit. This is a lot worse hole in the wall than theS&L crisis which was really about a $50 billion loss at best. thisone will be 10 times that before it is done and if it needs agovernment bailout, we will be talking $2 to $3 trillion when they sumup all the costs. The best way to do this is to just tax the money outof existance and draw all the cash back from overseas and put theAmerican consumer on an austerity program. Of course, this would wipeout the last 30 years of stock market gains, but it would fix a lot ofmesses. Being that there isn't a politician in the Western world withthe guts to do this, we are going to have to settle instead for deathby 1000 cuts.