Bear market from hell(mannfm11)

Bear market from hell	mannfm11	NEW 1/17/2008 12:58:14 PM
Ihave seen 3 really strong market turning indicators over the pastcouple of weeks not work. I wouldn't be surprised if the TRIN readingtoday wasn't over 4 again, making 4 times this has happened. It took 3years of bear last time to get a TRIN reading over 4 and that put in abottom. I began speculating earlier this week that either this marketturns or it crashes. The TRIN on the first friday of the month shouldhave had a pretty quick effect, but all that happened was the declineslowed a few days. The TRIN on Tuesday clearly has had no effect atall. The Bull/Bear reading I got from an outfit last night wassomething like 20% bulls, 59% bears. Of course this is generallyoutrageously bullish. These are supposed to be shooting fish in thebarrel bull indicators and we are going down faster than ever for thismarket. I saw a 50 point up move and a 50 point down move happen in amatter of 90 seconds or less, both in a matter of 30 minutes. Thistells me the market makers aren't present either and no one wants to beshort or long, as these are sizable market buys and sells in majorstocks with little resistance in either direction. In fact, one mighthave been the liquidation of the other, a test buy to see if a rallytook hold followed by a stop loss sale. This thing is about toget really interesting. I would keep my eyes on the charts and keepmoving down my stop loss to points that I think a rally shouldn't passand wait for the next selling opportunity if you are taken out. Looksas if we have solid air between the price right now and 12,500 on theDow, that being the last bottom and probably a spot a continued bearmove doesn't pass on the way up. This is the point of no return. Bernankebasically told Congress that they are probably going to have to do theborrowing to keep this economy going. He spoke in terms of a 1% of GDPspending boost, just give the SOBs that can spend it the fastest themoney. That is downright crazy for an economy that is in the shape itis in because its consumers have been on a 15 year spending spree(Longer than that, but uninterrupted for 15 years). The goldbugs are going to be right on this one, so I wouldn't laugh if goldgoes down and they get stuck with it. They are betting on a slam dunk,that a bankrupt cannot spend itself to prosperity. The Central bank hasbasically told the Congress he needs them to do some helicopter dropsfor him and he will gladly cash their checks in return for their bonds. Robert Prechter has been telling us this time is coming soon.He said the buy indicators wouldn't work when it got there and thatthere would be day after day crashes. We have had a 100 point moveliterally every day this year, even though not every closing change hasbeen that high. The bulls may have won 2 or 3 days in all, it seems acouple in the middle of last week before they washed out at the end ofthe week. There are a lot of shoes dropping, but the truth isthat the investment market is now losing its liquidity to continueplaying all these markets at these high prices. I think they are beingforced to sell in a lot of cases to raise cash and the ready cash onthe sidelines is shrinking. There isn't any big time corporate raidertakeovers going on now. The banks aren't putting out a billion or so amonth to buy back their own stocks. In fact, I get the idea that stockbuybacks are going to be a thing of the past pretty damn fast. Thismassive supply of liquidity to the market and to cash on the sidelinesis going the way of the dinosaur. If this is true, then the market isgoing to be missing a free $40 billion to $50 billion a month. Tomorrowis Friday. If there is a PPT out there that buys panics, I venture theywill show up around 10:00 AM NY Time. That might have been them firingthe blanks that moved the market up about 50 points in a few secondsaround 3 PM Eastern, figuring they would get their ammo back fortomorrow on the following sale. If it was, the PPT stopped out. I can'tbelieve they would let the market take a 400 or so bath on Friday tofester over the weekend. If they do so, we just might see Maui's bigball roll over Tuesday, as Monday is MLK day.