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Someone posted an article about Peak Oil yesterday that I put up ashort comment on. What I commented was that it appeared slanted againstthe US, which is still one of the 2 or 3 major energy producers in theworld.
I thought about what that article said. I had beenreading a small book put out a few years ago on the subject, but itdidn't affect me like that article. One thing I do understand that shewrote (she was an actuary) was that the markets are geared to recognizeunlimited or unrestrained growth and that the model could fall apartthis year. 2 things are clear, that the stock market is probably 500%overvalued without growth and that debt doesn't have a chance at PVrepayment without an open door to more growth. Thus the financialassets of the world collapse. That article left an eerie group of ideasin my head and it wasn't just about what would happen without oil. Itwas more what would happen when just the idea sank in.
The other article was posted on the home page of Prudent Bear.
Distortions hide pending calamity by David Jensen
Thisarticle also rang true to me. I think David Jensen must be Rasputinbecause he is saying we are scroomed according to Austrian economics.He basically said that the price of gold skyrockets any time interestrates on fiat money are left too low, aka the 1970's and the 2000's.Second he says that once we reach this plateau of debt, either they tryto fight it with low rates, in which we get hyperinflation or the wholegame collapses. In other words, the whole game collapses with even richpeople having no medium of exchange in the inflation scenario and mostfinancial assets going bad in the other scenario. Over the short run,it appears to me the Fed and Wall Street are pursuing the wrong policy,as a bad exchange system beats none at all and the asset bubblecollapsing beats everything collapsing. Of course, the asset bubble isWall Streets only chance, so if they go down, they are taking us withthem.
In any case, I found both of these articles made animpact on my intellect. I know there to be a significant amount oftruth in both articles and that time is short on what I think will bereferred to in the future as the modern prosperity, of course in pasttense. It appears that man is going to have to innovate and adjust tosurvive as he is today and all the modern stuff we have could very wellbe a thing of the past. One thing in the Peak Oil article was theimplication that the housing bubble would become permanent and as myfamily's wealth is largely in housing, it would be a blow to the familyfortune.
I thought about what that article said. I had beenreading a small book put out a few years ago on the subject, but itdidn't affect me like that article. One thing I do understand that shewrote (she was an actuary) was that the markets are geared to recognizeunlimited or unrestrained growth and that the model could fall apartthis year. 2 things are clear, that the stock market is probably 500%overvalued without growth and that debt doesn't have a chance at PVrepayment without an open door to more growth. Thus the financialassets of the world collapse. That article left an eerie group of ideasin my head and it wasn't just about what would happen without oil. Itwas more what would happen when just the idea sank in.
The other article was posted on the home page of Prudent Bear.
Distortions hide pending calamity by David Jensen
Thisarticle also rang true to me. I think David Jensen must be Rasputinbecause he is saying we are scroomed according to Austrian economics.He basically said that the price of gold skyrockets any time interestrates on fiat money are left too low, aka the 1970's and the 2000's.Second he says that once we reach this plateau of debt, either they tryto fight it with low rates, in which we get hyperinflation or the wholegame collapses. In other words, the whole game collapses with even richpeople having no medium of exchange in the inflation scenario and mostfinancial assets going bad in the other scenario. Over the short run,it appears to me the Fed and Wall Street are pursuing the wrong policy,as a bad exchange system beats none at all and the asset bubblecollapsing beats everything collapsing. Of course, the asset bubble isWall Streets only chance, so if they go down, they are taking us withthem.
In any case, I found both of these articles made animpact on my intellect. I know there to be a significant amount oftruth in both articles and that time is short on what I think will bereferred to in the future as the modern prosperity, of course in pasttense. It appears that man is going to have to innovate and adjust tosurvive as he is today and all the modern stuff we have could very wellbe a thing of the past. One thing in the Peak Oil article was theimplication that the housing bubble would become permanent and as myfamily's wealth is largely in housing, it would be a blow to the familyfortune.
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