remaining bullish after a rate cut?(mannfm11)

10 year treasuries are already 4% going into a recession. Stocks won'tget the boost this time. The economy already took the shot.

Now,what is so great about remaining bullish after a rate cut? 2001, theSPX was in the 1440 range after the cut. Where is it today? about 50points higher, almost 7 years later. The dividend yield on the SPX was1.25% then. So what has remaining bullish after the boost of the firstrate cut gotten the bulls the last time around the block? Maybe a 1.6%return over 7 years. I recall treasuries were in the 5.4% range backthen. Treasuries beat stocks by almost 4% over that period, notincluding the appreciation on treasuries since then. This doesn'tinclude the hedonistic adjustments done the indexes to give theappearance of gains.

What if treasuries beat stocks by 4%again over the next 7 years, not including appreciation? That means theSPX will have run in place for 15 years. It needed a 300% appreciationfrom the 2000 point before it was worth what it was trading for in2000. We have had 100% inflation since then, maybe not in the CPI, butin asset values in general and of course in debt. We are actuallypropping an SPX at 50% of 2000 values, not 100%. The idea that in lightof inflation over the last 5 years, the 10 year treasury trading in the4% range or even at the high of 5.20% or whatever the top tick was isabsurd. Only in relation to the 10 year rate has the SPX done anything.By that I mean that the 10 year rate being so low has propped themarket. It was never this low over the years that the dollar had beensevered from gold and silver on a domestic and international basisbefore. The Fed does not have power over this rate on a long termbasis, which means other forces are at work, either the expectation ofbig money that one wants to own sovereign collateral before this gameis done or that the credit game cannot be sustained.