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these prices leads to losses that last for 2 generations(mannfm1

(2007-12-21 20:42:31) 下一個
The bull return in the market sinceJune has been zero. The return on the SPX since 2000, almost 8 yearshas been the same as jy 10 year bonds, less than 2%. The rate ofinflation since 2000 has been under the best of terms, 3%. We are goinglower. It might not be on your limited time frame, but history hasshown that buying stocks at these prices leads to losses that last for2 generations. It was 1966 at a minimum that they reaped a better thant-bond return out of holding stocks from 1929. Take the CPI andmultiply it by 400 and see what you get? I get 760 for the first of1967. I really highly doubt that inflation was that low, but that iswhat government says.

The Dow in 1967? 1000. Dow in 1990? Ithink it was in the 2500 range. CPI in 1967? 32.9. CPI in 1990, 127.4.Breakeven Dow before tax? 3872. Breakeven after tax, withoutcomputation, 4500 minimum. We got there 5 years later. 30 years is along time to wait to get your money back. The Dow was cheaper in 1966than in it is now and far cheaper than 2000. Real potential we see asteadily higher stock market over the next 30 years? 1 out 1000.
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