RE hasn\'t gone bust yet(mannfm11)

1978 and 1977 were watershed years in the housing industry. The frontend of the boomer generation was between 22 and 32. Sales fell short of4 million and that was a speculative bubble to boot. Now we are talkingabout 5 million being a bust? I had this debate in PM the other day,but I will hold to my guns that there isn't anything going on right nowthat compares to the coming of age of the boomers and to call salesabove this level a bust is absurd. We haven't gone bust yet, though Iwill agree that 300 million people will move more than 220 millionpeople will. The problem is that over 220 million people only generated2 million sales in 1982, so it isn't unreasonable for 300 million toonly do 3 million or so. There was still tax shelter for passivelosses, 50% tax rates and population growth in 1982 to generate sales.This time there is a falling price and we are still in an expansion.Despite this, we will hit 5 million in 2007, still 2 million over buststage. Inventory will pass the one year supply mark soon. Plus, I wouldforget the subprime talk, as this is a mortgage problem in general. FREisn't subprime, regardless of the discussion and if they did holdsubprime, it would be the butt, not the end that burns first. Don'tforget the house is worth something and it is highly unlikely FREforget to get the paperwork. Only a group of keystone idiots on wallStreet looking for a quick buck would do that. I watched this in DFWand there wasn't any subprime money out there, yet a huge amount of thetown foreclosed.