Serious statistical scroomage(by rasputin)

Serious statistical scroomage	rasputin	NEW 11/3/2007 6:31:59 AM
SinceDa Boyz at Citi are having an “Emergency Meeting” this weekend, Ithought I would convene my own such meeting at the cyber cafe' thismorning. My reasoning is that if THEY are sufficiently terrified thatthey need to blow-off a weekend at the Hamptons to frantically try tofigure out how not to reveal that they are bankrupt, then perhaps Ishould devote some of my time (that I otherwise would have spendwandering the malls mumbling “We're scroomed” under my breath andrummaging through dumpsters for leftover bagels) to the study of whatthe situation is all about. So, to that end, I have amassed the mostmassive missive of scary statistics ever stacked up in such a “Pyramidof Economic Death” manor in my entire time posting on P-bear. Below,please find the stats, culled from various sources and—to my bestknowledge—reasonably accurate. I have focused only on those categoriesand amounts which I believe to be the most relevant to our currenteconomic environment and have omitted emphasizing total current U.S.debt or contingent liabilities going forward. The reason for theseomissions is that since I believe we probably won't survive the nextfive years, why bother with the next thirty? Therefore, without further ado, here are the stats, followed by my analysis: Statistics: Total Estimated Subprime loans: 7 million Average loan amount: $225k Total Subprime Dollar Amount Outstanding: $1.5 trillion Total Estimated Alt-A, Jumbo and other suspect loans: 6 million Average Loan Amount: $350k Total Dollar Amount Alt-A, Jumbo and Other Suspect Loans: $2.1 trillion Total Estimated Number of Sub, Alt-A, Jumbo, Other Suspect Loans: 13 million Total Dollar Amount ALL Subprime, Alt-A, Jumbo and Other…:$3.6 trillion Total Dollar Amount of Mortgages Held by Banking System: $3.5 trillion Total CDOs frozen in off-balance sheet SIVs: $400 billion Total CDOs in Pension/Mutual/Money Market Funds, etc: $2.5 trillion Total $ “Value” Wiped out From Recent CDO ABX Indices: $600 billion Total “Leveraged” CDO-squared, cubed, Diced, Sliced: $10-30 trillion? Total LBO Loans Frozen in Banking Pipeline: $400 billion Total MBS/Loans Held/Guaranteed by Fannie/Freddie/FHLB: $6.2 trillion Total MBS “Private Label”: $3 trillion Total MBS/Credit Insured by MBIA, Ambac, Radian, PMI, etc.: $2 trillion Total Credit Default Swaps Outstanding: $45-50 Trillion Total Worldwide Derivatives Positions Outstanding: $500 trillion Total Dollar Amount in Money Market Funds: $3 trillion Total Outstanding Asset-Backed Commercial Paper: $800 billion Total Drop in Asset-Backed Commercial Paper: $400 billion Total (Admitted) “Level 3” Assets at: Goldman Sachs: $75 billion Percent of Capital: 200% Lehman: $25 billion Percent of Capital: 100% JPM/Chase: $75 billion Percent of Capital: 50% Citi: $100 billion Percent of Capital: 300%? BofA: $75 billion Percent of Capital: ? Total “Level Three” Assets, All Above: $350 billion (and probably much more) Total “Fictitious Capital” (Russ Winterism) of above Banks: $4 trillion Total Amount U.S. Must Borrow From Foreigners To Meet Fund Trade Deficit: $800 billion Total Outstanding U.S. Consumer Credit (charge cards): $1 trillion Total “Petro-Dollars” (OPEC, other oil exporters): $3.5 trillion Total China Holdings of Dollar-Denominated Assets: $500 billion? Total Japan Holdings of Dollar Denominated Assets: $700 billion Total Foreign Central Bank Holdings of Agency Debt: $900 billion Total Amount of Discussion I've Heard About the Above Subjects in the Cyber Café' This Morning ZERO (Ras Analysis):If those statistics don't scream scroomage, I don't know what would.Please pay careful attention to the housing/MBS/CDO numbers as well asthe Wall Street Bank “Level Three” (totally fictitious capital)numbers. These are the most frightening numbers that I see in the listabove, because it shows how completely insolvent the banking systemreally is. Also, please note the extreme vulnerability of theU.S. to foreign-devil debt enablers. At what point (if ever) do theybecome so concerned over the dollar fall that they demand higherinterest rates to fund our profligacy, stop buying treasuries/agenciesaltogether, or sell outright their holdings? Going forward,it's anybody's guess which way we go but given the Fed/feds/othergovernments/CBs recent actions, I'm betting on the “Greatest Monetization of Assets the World Has Ever Seen”scenario. I mean, really, what else are the governments and centralbanks gonna do? Stand idly by as the whole credit system collapses? Ijust don't think they will do that. It appears that the Buggy WhipHoarders and Peak Oilers currently agree with my conclusion as theydrive up the fiatsco price of these precious commodities. In any event,it appears that the credit collapse is gaining speed and we will soonsee what the reaction of TPTB will be. For my part, I amcontinuing to make sure that my assets are covered, my shotguns arelocked-and-loaded, and my food and water stash are sufficient tosustain me for at least a couple of months. You may wish to takesimilar actions to protect yourself in what could be a rapidlydeteriorating economic environment going forward.