正文
hate to say it, but housing has been one of the funniest sad stories inhistory. The bulls heard a sneeze in mid 2006 and said the problemwould be solved by fall. People that have been through a housing bustcould only hold their breath and laugh or cry as socalled experts wereparaded on CNBC to make this call. A housing bust and waiting for it tofinish took my youth from me. It wasn't a 3 month ordeal, but an entiredecade from cracks to finish. The market for homes in the DFW areadidn't exactly dry up either as population grew in DFW from 3 millionin 1970 to over 5 million in 2000. Think about the bust coming in areasof the country that aren't exactly going to be busting at the seemswith population, namely New England and New York, the eastern seaboard.The jokes might be about California, but all projections are thatCalifornia will grow another 10 million people in the next 18 or soyears. Florida, Texas and Georgia are also projected to grow, whichwill eventually put a bottom in a housing bust. What about the midwestor mideast or whatever it is called today, with its population loss?
INany case, the next 5 to 10 years is going to be a horrible time forcurrent real estate and mortgage people. It will be depression. In afew years, the bad market for these guys will be nirvana for some newentrant that doesn't know the market is bad, but it will chew theseexisting people up for the most part. So will it do the same for thoseon Wall Street who have been used to pushing percentages of this crapinto their pockets over these bubble years. Thus, the North East realestate market is going to suffer worse than most, with most fat catsdoomed for trips to the psychiatrist for more Prozac instead of theexhilarating ride of fame and fortune.
The main reason we arefar from the bottom is the industry is still operating in a boom. Thehousing starts aren't bust levels, but instead prior to bubble recordlevels. Sales volumes are being compared to as being down to boomlevels of the recent past, not bust levels of the 1990 era.Foreclosures are high because of poor credit results, not because thebust has come home to roost yet. Prime stuff will go bad by themillions of loans before the bust is done, as builders will be able tobuild in a more moderate market at prices lower than many home ownersare required to sell at. In this sense, though the number of homes onthe market at a given time might cease to rise, the number of potentialhomes on the market through construction is technically infinite. Whybuy a used home when you can build what you want at the same price new.
INany case, the next 5 to 10 years is going to be a horrible time forcurrent real estate and mortgage people. It will be depression. In afew years, the bad market for these guys will be nirvana for some newentrant that doesn't know the market is bad, but it will chew theseexisting people up for the most part. So will it do the same for thoseon Wall Street who have been used to pushing percentages of this crapinto their pockets over these bubble years. Thus, the North East realestate market is going to suffer worse than most, with most fat catsdoomed for trips to the psychiatrist for more Prozac instead of theexhilarating ride of fame and fortune.
The main reason we arefar from the bottom is the industry is still operating in a boom. Thehousing starts aren't bust levels, but instead prior to bubble recordlevels. Sales volumes are being compared to as being down to boomlevels of the recent past, not bust levels of the 1990 era.Foreclosures are high because of poor credit results, not because thebust has come home to roost yet. Prime stuff will go bad by themillions of loans before the bust is done, as builders will be able tobuild in a more moderate market at prices lower than many home ownersare required to sell at. In this sense, though the number of homes onthe market at a given time might cease to rise, the number of potentialhomes on the market through construction is technically infinite. Whybuy a used home when you can build what you want at the same price new.
評論
目前還沒有任何評論
登錄後才可評論.
