all serious equity market disruptions start in the credit market

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

Special Edition - BEAR STEARNS GETS ROACHED

Ok guys, its starting.

First, let's lead with what we know

"Bear Stearns Cos. Inc.'s two troubled hedge funds that bet heavily on risky subprime loans now have "very little value," the company said in a letter sent to investors on Tuesday.

Bear Stearnsin June had said it would provide up to $3.2 billion in financing forits High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund. The investment bankhad also said its Enhanced Leverage Fund had taken greater risk ininvestments backed by subprime mortgages.

"Thepreliminary estimates show there is effectively no value left for theinvestors in the Enhanced Leverage Fund and very little value left forthe investors in the High-Grade Fund as of June 30, 2007," according tothe letter. A copy of the letter was obtained by Reuters."

Ok,so that's what we do know. (BTW, if you're wondering what "very little"is, the answer is 9 cents on the dollar. And yes, lawyers are alreadyinvolved. There will be plenty of work for them in the coming monthsand years.)

By the way Bear Stearns (BSC) is getting roachedin the aftermarket, trading down over $5 from the 4:00 PM close. And itdoesn't stop there - Moody's is apparently now talking about moredowngrading and the roaching of equities is not contained to Bear -Goldman, Merrill, Lehman, CountryWide financial and others are all getting whacked to one degree or another on potential contagion.

Andlet's be clear here - this is not likely to just be "potential" thistime around. We are very, very likely to see some marks to market starthere as these positions "unwind", and each that does can create more ofthe same.

In addition to this we are now starting to seeevidence of stress in the broader credit markets. I know I keeppounding the table on this, but it needs to be pounded. Cerberus ishaving trouble syndicating the debt to buy Chrysler. If that syndication fails it will touch off a shitstorm cascade as this is roughly $60 billion worth of junk debt that has to go out to make the deal happen, and there is another $200ishbillion sitting behind that! ANY of the big deals that goes "boom"could set of a cascade of detonations in the credit markets if theexplosives are too close to one another.

Now the "street sense" seems to be that this won't happen. Don't bet on it. Right now the bond market has just had woke up to the fact that the roof is on fire fools!

Why? Because you thought these deals were reasonably risk-free and guess what - the entire investment went up in smoke! That's not a small loss, its a total loss!

And just for clarification - we don't know at this point how much of Bear's $1.6 billion is gone either! It may be that all of their "rescue" money is ALSO gone!

So no, you cannot take this lightly. In fact, you better take this situation very seriously.

Guys, back to my thesis of a couple of months ago - all serious equity market disruptions start in the credit markets. ALL OF THEM. Not some - ALL.

So - if you care about the possibility of a no-bullshit market crash, then you need to be paying attention to the credit markets and what they're doing.

It is essentially a given that we will open down tomorrow. How bad? No idea. Howmuch more roaching will be taken overnight, how much pressure does thedollar come under from Asia and Europe, and how many people wake up ina cold sweat at 4:00 AM wondering if this ENTIRE market is built on a foundation of fraud and lies?

If none of that happens, then we start with a down day and finish wherever.

If any of that does happen, or if the margin calls are going out right now on the other hedgies holding similar debt?

Your guess is as good as mine.

BTW,as I write this the dollar is getting roached as well with the Eurobreaking the 138 line convincingly. and the Yen and Pound alsostrengthening. BEWARE if we break 80 on the Dollar Index to thedownside, as the shitstorm this is likely to cause, especially with this as backdrop, will hit the markets like an EF-5 Tornado!