正文
The Coming Crash: Winners and Losers
July 10, 2007
by John Galt
Thisis going to be one of the most bizarre opinion pieces I've ever writtenbecause over the last three months, I've received a lot of love forcalling the market and economic events which are and have beenhappening correctly to a great extent. Whether it was the threat fromexotic financial investing instruments to the real estate market, a lotof kind words as well as curse words have been directed my way. Now,let's turn off the gloatometer and get into why I'm writing this piece,and the supporting facts behind it. I've received hundreds of emails inthe last month or two asking the question "What's Next?" but inreality, it should be "Which column will I fall into?" The answer issimple, just like 1930:
Winners and Losers
WINNER: Allhomeowners who are in secure industries who did not take out an exoticre-finance agreement, have no credit card or other unsecured debt, andare actually able to save money. This means having a financial planincluding a retirement program which includes safe investments(precious metals, non-US government bonds, etc.) and having at leastthree to six months salary socked away safely in case of suddenunemployment.
LOSER: Anyone with an ARM that did not read thefine print. The Federal Reserve may just well make "THE BLUNDER" whichI wrote about last month. Either way, you will lose. If you did notconvert to a fixed mortgage or can not afford a $300-$700 per monthincrease in your monthly housing expenses, well, a lawyer might just bea good idea about now.
WINNER: Bullriders. No, not the PBR guyswearing kevlar, but in this market kevlar might be a good idea, thepeople who listened 5 years ago and purchase precious metals at theirlows. Just think about it; if you were able to set aside $50 per weekback then, you could have purchased boatloads of silver and yourinvestment now is poised to skyrocket. Now you have insurance and afuture reserve no matter the actions of the banksters nor buffoons inD.C.
LOSER: People who actually believe that Bear Stearns,Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase,etc. actually give a crap about your retirement account, you personallyor your money. If you actually go out and read the news, you will seethe numerous stories where companies like these have been "fined" formisusing and abusing your accounts and your money. Churn and burn baby,because if you still think they care, you need a lobotomy. The disasterunderway is of their doing and they will have all the help they needfrom you, the taxpayer to straighten it out.
WINNER: Anyone with lots of cash waiting to buy real estate at 75% under current prices.
LOSER:Anyone who purchased any of the number of DVD's and/or went to seminarsfrom "millionaires" who showed you how to buy 20 homes with "no moneydown". P.S.-That letter in the mail you'll be getting after theforeclosures on those 20 homes is the 1099 for the money you'll owe theIRS. I'll bet the DVD didn't tell you about that part.......
WINNER:The family farm. Despite the hyperinflationary starship poised forlaunch when Helicopter Ben presses the "START" button, the family farmis about to enjoy a resurgence unseen in a century. With the ChineseCommunists perfecting the methodology of poisoning their enemies viathe food supply and those cute little neighbors to the southcontaminating their own fields with our toxic waste and their ownsewage, the family farmer with the safety and guarantee of a pure foodsupply will enjoy a celebrated status. Already in our community, manypeople are seeking locally grown produce to insure it is notcontaminated with strange chemicals or diseases. As the JIT systemfinally implodes due to the petroleum crisis, terrorism and theupcoming war, the people who live closest to communities with familyfarms will live the high life. Those in major cities, well, perhaps youcan ask your local politicians why they insisted on using eminentdomain to build all those golf courses and ru
n off the farmers.
LOSER:Big city residents. You will get to live the high life like mygrandparents (God rest their souls) did during World War II. Just lookat it as you did when you were a little kid camping in your back yard.Yes, the insects will still bite, but you get to check out suchexciting concepts as food rationing, fuel rationing, and of course, myfavorite, money rationing. Fresh fruit and vegetables? You can getthem, but with bananas at $7.99 per pound and tomatoes at $12.99 perpound, you had best have your own printing press to be able to affordto buy them. And the sad part is you will look at us "hicks andgoobers" out in the sticks jealously as you hear stories about "VictoryGardens" as you munch down on your flat Soylent Green wafer.
WINNER:Anyone who has listened to Warren Buffett's warnings. He was correctabout derivatives and that warning has not filtered through the thickheads of CNBC's bubbleheads who promote "record this" and "record that"without any reasonable analysis as to why the market is where it is at.The Dow might reflect a numerical record or close to one any day now.Or in reality, just maybe, the dollar is worth less and it's just morehedonic creativity by the banksters to make you feel all warm and fuzzyinside.
LOSER: Those who constantly beat the drum of thebubblevidiots and think they will be able to actually see one singledime of the money in the investments they have guided so many into. Theunwinding of the real estate market might seem like a "non-event" tomany on Wall Street but in the smoke filled back rooms, there is aterror unseen in 70 years. The realization they might lose control andthe entire system unwind will punish the "traditional" buy and holdinvestors because they trusted their government and the banksters to dobusiness honestly.
WINNERS: New Zealand and Chile. By avoidingthe traditional alliances with the USSR, oops, Russia and the bizarreentanglements of the United States and it's failing currency, thesenations are in a position to survive the upcoming economic depressionon their own and with limited reliance on neighbors for legitimatetrade.
LOSERS: Pretty much everyone in the Northern Hemisphere.Everyone it would appear will either be suffering from an economicdepression, internal civil war, or involved in the great World Warabout to go super hot in the Middle East. There is not a lot ofexplanation needed as to why this war will go hot, you had just beaware that every nation has been mobilizing except for our own. And asusual, the cost of this lack of preparation will be American lives athome and abroad. Despite the ability of our military to "project"worldwide, it is not prepared to slug it out with the Arabs, Russia,North Korea, Iran and China at the same time. Nor are the peopleready....
WINNER: The survivalist. Oh my, I used that horribleword. Look it up. See if you fall into that category. This does notjust mean the guy in cammo gear who can kill a bear with a Swiss Armypocket knife and survive in the Arctic with just one match and asleeping bag. This category includes the financial survivors, thehome-farmer survivors, the independent thinker who does not have torely on others when it all crashes. Barter becomes a luxury andeconomics back to the basics of salt for meat, silver for smokes andliquor for gasoline for this winner.
LOSER: The most commonspecies on earth-the liberal sheep waiting to be sheared. This does notjust mean the political "liberals" so everyone can unwad their pantiesnow. This means everyone who holds the belief that "government can bailme out" and will do so. Those who think that the banksters would neverlie to them. That believe that stock brokers would never actdishonestly with their retirements. The shearing will be most painfulfor you. And I hope you don't touch the wire at your new camp as itwill probably be electrified.
There you have it. My summary ofwinners and losers. The ultimate winners, of course, are those incharge. They have no obligations, no true belief or faith that theyhave to answer to (at least on earth), and no desire to do anything butenjoy their imperial life of luxury. I hope everyone here is in the"other" ultimate winners category; those that have a faith filled lifeof self-reliance and the ability to help their friends and neighborsget on their feet to a better life as we face a period unseen in thehistory of the United States and Western civilization.
July 10, 2007
by John Galt
Thisis going to be one of the most bizarre opinion pieces I've ever writtenbecause over the last three months, I've received a lot of love forcalling the market and economic events which are and have beenhappening correctly to a great extent. Whether it was the threat fromexotic financial investing instruments to the real estate market, a lotof kind words as well as curse words have been directed my way. Now,let's turn off the gloatometer and get into why I'm writing this piece,and the supporting facts behind it. I've received hundreds of emails inthe last month or two asking the question "What's Next?" but inreality, it should be "Which column will I fall into?" The answer issimple, just like 1930:
Winners and Losers
WINNER: Allhomeowners who are in secure industries who did not take out an exoticre-finance agreement, have no credit card or other unsecured debt, andare actually able to save money. This means having a financial planincluding a retirement program which includes safe investments(precious metals, non-US government bonds, etc.) and having at leastthree to six months salary socked away safely in case of suddenunemployment.
LOSER: Anyone with an ARM that did not read thefine print. The Federal Reserve may just well make "THE BLUNDER" whichI wrote about last month. Either way, you will lose. If you did notconvert to a fixed mortgage or can not afford a $300-$700 per monthincrease in your monthly housing expenses, well, a lawyer might just bea good idea about now.
WINNER: Bullriders. No, not the PBR guyswearing kevlar, but in this market kevlar might be a good idea, thepeople who listened 5 years ago and purchase precious metals at theirlows. Just think about it; if you were able to set aside $50 per weekback then, you could have purchased boatloads of silver and yourinvestment now is poised to skyrocket. Now you have insurance and afuture reserve no matter the actions of the banksters nor buffoons inD.C.
LOSER: People who actually believe that Bear Stearns,Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wachovia, JP Morgan Chase,etc. actually give a crap about your retirement account, you personallyor your money. If you actually go out and read the news, you will seethe numerous stories where companies like these have been "fined" formisusing and abusing your accounts and your money. Churn and burn baby,because if you still think they care, you need a lobotomy. The disasterunderway is of their doing and they will have all the help they needfrom you, the taxpayer to straighten it out.
WINNER: Anyone with lots of cash waiting to buy real estate at 75% under current prices.
LOSER:Anyone who purchased any of the number of DVD's and/or went to seminarsfrom "millionaires" who showed you how to buy 20 homes with "no moneydown". P.S.-That letter in the mail you'll be getting after theforeclosures on those 20 homes is the 1099 for the money you'll owe theIRS. I'll bet the DVD didn't tell you about that part.......
WINNER:The family farm. Despite the hyperinflationary starship poised forlaunch when Helicopter Ben presses the "START" button, the family farmis about to enjoy a resurgence unseen in a century. With the ChineseCommunists perfecting the methodology of poisoning their enemies viathe food supply and those cute little neighbors to the southcontaminating their own fields with our toxic waste and their ownsewage, the family farmer with the safety and guarantee of a pure foodsupply will enjoy a celebrated status. Already in our community, manypeople are seeking locally grown produce to insure it is notcontaminated with strange chemicals or diseases. As the JIT systemfinally implodes due to the petroleum crisis, terrorism and theupcoming war, the people who live closest to communities with familyfarms will live the high life. Those in major cities, well, perhaps youcan ask your local politicians why they insisted on using eminentdomain to build all those golf courses and ru
n off the farmers.
LOSER:Big city residents. You will get to live the high life like mygrandparents (God rest their souls) did during World War II. Just lookat it as you did when you were a little kid camping in your back yard.Yes, the insects will still bite, but you get to check out suchexciting concepts as food rationing, fuel rationing, and of course, myfavorite, money rationing. Fresh fruit and vegetables? You can getthem, but with bananas at $7.99 per pound and tomatoes at $12.99 perpound, you had best have your own printing press to be able to affordto buy them. And the sad part is you will look at us "hicks andgoobers" out in the sticks jealously as you hear stories about "VictoryGardens" as you munch down on your flat Soylent Green wafer.
WINNER:Anyone who has listened to Warren Buffett's warnings. He was correctabout derivatives and that warning has not filtered through the thickheads of CNBC's bubbleheads who promote "record this" and "record that"without any reasonable analysis as to why the market is where it is at.The Dow might reflect a numerical record or close to one any day now.Or in reality, just maybe, the dollar is worth less and it's just morehedonic creativity by the banksters to make you feel all warm and fuzzyinside.
LOSER: Those who constantly beat the drum of thebubblevidiots and think they will be able to actually see one singledime of the money in the investments they have guided so many into. Theunwinding of the real estate market might seem like a "non-event" tomany on Wall Street but in the smoke filled back rooms, there is aterror unseen in 70 years. The realization they might lose control andthe entire system unwind will punish the "traditional" buy and holdinvestors because they trusted their government and the banksters to dobusiness honestly.
WINNERS: New Zealand and Chile. By avoidingthe traditional alliances with the USSR, oops, Russia and the bizarreentanglements of the United States and it's failing currency, thesenations are in a position to survive the upcoming economic depressionon their own and with limited reliance on neighbors for legitimatetrade.
LOSERS: Pretty much everyone in the Northern Hemisphere.Everyone it would appear will either be suffering from an economicdepression, internal civil war, or involved in the great World Warabout to go super hot in the Middle East. There is not a lot ofexplanation needed as to why this war will go hot, you had just beaware that every nation has been mobilizing except for our own. And asusual, the cost of this lack of preparation will be American lives athome and abroad. Despite the ability of our military to "project"worldwide, it is not prepared to slug it out with the Arabs, Russia,North Korea, Iran and China at the same time. Nor are the peopleready....
WINNER: The survivalist. Oh my, I used that horribleword. Look it up. See if you fall into that category. This does notjust mean the guy in cammo gear who can kill a bear with a Swiss Armypocket knife and survive in the Arctic with just one match and asleeping bag. This category includes the financial survivors, thehome-farmer survivors, the independent thinker who does not have torely on others when it all crashes. Barter becomes a luxury andeconomics back to the basics of salt for meat, silver for smokes andliquor for gasoline for this winner.
LOSER: The most commonspecies on earth-the liberal sheep waiting to be sheared. This does notjust mean the political "liberals" so everyone can unwad their pantiesnow. This means everyone who holds the belief that "government can bailme out" and will do so. Those who think that the banksters would neverlie to them. That believe that stock brokers would never actdishonestly with their retirements. The shearing will be most painfulfor you. And I hope you don't touch the wire at your new camp as itwill probably be electrified.
There you have it. My summary ofwinners and losers. The ultimate winners, of course, are those incharge. They have no obligations, no true belief or faith that theyhave to answer to (at least on earth), and no desire to do anything butenjoy their imperial life of luxury. I hope everyone here is in the"other" ultimate winners category; those that have a faith filled lifeof self-reliance and the ability to help their friends and neighborsget on their feet to a better life as we face a period unseen in thehistory of the United States and Western civilization.
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