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I hope Transocean will bring me luck and prove my theory

(2008-05-05 23:16:57) 下一個
A few months back, I read frontline's article about stock FRO. This is quality stock and I missed the opprotunity when it touched $35. Now it is over $58. What a pity. Now the RSI has been over 70 for three weeks, I am expecting a downturn correction between 10-15%, in other words, $5-7. Until then, it will be a good chance for either a credit spread (a safe way) or a debit spread (aggressive way).

Let me check its earning history, the next earning will be very interesting. The expected earning is over 70% 1st quarter 2007. If FRO can beat Well Street analysts's estimate, I won't be suprised to see the stock surge further $15.

SYMBOL

PERIOD

EPS ESTIMATE

EPS ACTUAL

PREV. YEAR ACTUAL

DATE/TIME (ET)

FRO  

Q2 2008

$ 1.09 

n/a 

$ 1.07 

18-Aug-08 - 28-Aug-08

FRO  

Q1 2008

$ 2.33 

n/a 

$ 1.30 

25-May-08 - 4-Jun-08

FRO  

Q4 2007

$ 0.36 

$ 0.78 

$ 0.81 

14-Feb-08


I have talked too much about FRO, now it is time to check my baby RIG (transocean). This is stable growing stock, however, can be sometime be very volatile. Within a week or two, the price can go up/down for $15. It is scary stuff. I need a strong nerve to handle it.
Look at its earings, you will be impressed. 18/04/2008, its RSI touched 70 and the stock started falling, within two weeks, $15 has gone. Since 01/05/2008, it starts jump again, ( $9 up in two days). I am expecting over $12 jump for the next two days ( Currently, RIG's PE is 10 which means a $3.34 earning should move the stock up for $33). After 7-May-2008, I hope the stock will move further up for $20 within the month. Still, a credit spread will do the trick and a 100% ROI will make me happy.

SYMBOL

PERIOD

EPS ESTIMATE

EPS ACTUAL

PREV. YEAR ACTUAL

DATE/TIME (ET)

RIG  

Q3 2008

$ 3.55 

n/a 

$ 2.12 

5-Nov-08

RIG  

Q2 2008

$ 3.38 

n/a 

$ 1.84 

6-Aug-08

RIG  

Q1 2008

$ 3.34 

n/a 

$ 1.77 

7-May-08 BMO

RIG  

Q4 2007

$ 2.54 

$ 3.40 

$ 1.25 

20-Feb-08 BMO

RIG  

Q3 2007

$ 2.09 

$ 2.12 

$ 0.83 

31-Oct-07 BMO

RIG  

Q2 2007

$ 1.72 

$ 1.84 

$ 0.42 

1-Aug-07

RIG  

Q1 2007

$ 1.45 

$ 1.77 

$ 0.49 

2-May-07 BMO

RIG  

Q4 2006

$ 1.19 

$ 1.25 

$ 0.45 

14-Feb-07 BMO

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SSH 回複 悄悄話 RIG followed my instruction and went up $4 in 06/05/08. But it droped 45cents last night due to pessimism of the whole market. The dow dropped 200 points last night, so It is not bad for rig. And I am expecting the stock to go up tonight since its earning beat Well Street estimate by over 15%. Good luck to myself.
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