買入ebay的理由 (圖)

Ebay曾經是人見人愛的美少女，曾幾何時多少仁人誌士都想抱她入懷。 現在是美少婦，少了幾分衝動卻多了幾分恬靜。

Ebay是互聯網中少有的幹什莫都成功的公司。他在圍繞他的主業auction上成功拓展到網上支付paypal和網絡社區通信skype. 這三項業務都很有粘性，靠口嘴相傳而紅遍世界，運銷成本低，而且增加的客戶馬上就可以轉化為錢袋。

 首先看auction業務，已經成為世界霸主，旁人難以撼動。有不少公司如amazon,yahoo都曾嚐試過，但都不幸無功而返。Ebay 成功的把auction業務打造成最大的自由市場商鋪。要在網上開店賣東西，全世界的人想到的第一優先選擇是ebay, 買家多，賣價好。如黃金地段商鋪一樣，越來越值錢。所以ebay 有提價的power. 而成本卻在不斷降低，ebay維持經營的網絡硬件設備及軟件和所需帶寬價格都在下降。這種成本下降而又有提價能力的經營模式是投資大腕buffet最崇尚的。

 再看paypal業務，也已成為世界第一，用戶最多，作transaction最多。Google 推出checkout業務，讓華爾街擔心paypal，但是欣喜的看到，事情並不像想象的那麽壞。首先google能不能成功還是未知數。第一，用ebay的業務隻能用paypal，幾年的競爭下來，網上支付paypal和信用卡公司的競爭，paypal可以說是成功的。可見paypal的力量。第二，由於業界對google壟斷互聯網的恐懼，已經開始有相互取暖對抗google的態勢，他們不希望看到google作什麽都所向披靡，這從yahoo采用paypal作為支付手段可見端倪。如果amazon,Microsoft,以及myspace等公司也效仿yahoo抵製google checkout. Ebay的paypal會坐收漁人之利。第三，就算google checkout 成功，網絡支付也可以容納兩到三個品牌。 隨著網絡內容和網絡消費的增加，paypal的錢景是光明的。同樣paypal 維持經營的網絡硬件設備及軟件和所需帶寬價格都在下降,成本也在下降。 

最後看skype,這是一個很有粘性的業務，從中國最大的網絡公司是做qq聊天的騰訊可見skype 這個平台的錢景也是很有想象空間的。

Ebay還在尋找新的機會，如最近收購的StubHub，ebay 試圖有更多的突破。

 

從技術上看，ebay 有突破2004年12月以來的快兩年半下降趨勢線的強烈欲望。加上好的業績報告，沒有理由不看多。

關於有的人對ebay業績的質疑，我不認為站得住腳。關於匯率，大家不是都估計美元會下跌嗎？那末匯率因數還會利好。關於稅，這個遊戲每個公司都在玩。關於回購股票，公司回購股票說明對未來有信心，老buffet也是推崇的。

另外，ebay的pe也是大型網絡股中低的。

 

碼這多字，謝謝你的耐心看完，希提出不同看法。大家一同發財！

 

Ps:少婦級美女我喜歡李嘉欣。
Ebay’s current price has sparked me to consider a few things. First, am I “correct” on eBay? My general thesis on the company is that it is an undervalued market leader. The other question that comes to mind stems from the first one. If I am correct, why am I correct and the market wrong? It certainly isn’t that I possess some supernatural intellect or clairvoyance. (Trust me.) All I know is that I have looked at eBay’s operating performance numbers and to me the numbers just don’t spell 30 bucks per share.

What numbers am I referring to? Well primarily I’m referring to eBay’s free-cash-flow (FCF) figures. Recognizing that there is a plethora of ways to arrive at FCF and keeping in mind that exact numbers give a false sense of preciseness, I estimate that eBay produces about $1.4 billion in FCF. And over the last few years the company has been able to grow those figures at extraordinary rates – by at least 40% and by as much as 90%.

Using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, I arrived at an estimated intrinsic value for eBay of about $60 per share. Of course, this method of valuation is very sensitive to the assumptions made. To come up with my estimate, I assumed a discount rate of 9% which is my optimistic view of what the market itself will return over the next decade or so. I also assumed that eBay’s FCF growth rate would substantially decrease over the next 10 years - falling from 25% in the early years to 12.5% in the later years. And then I assumed a terminal growth rate of 3%, about the historic rate of inflation. With those factors, all of which I think are reasonable, I came up with an estimated value of $60. So the market must be missing something…possibly. Click chart for larger view.



But what if I’m wrong and the market is correct? Perhaps I’m missing something. One way or another the market is saying that eBay will not be able to perform in the future as it has in the past. The market seems to be saying that some external (or internal) force will do one or a combination of several things. The forces will depress eBay’s margins or retard its sales growth or cause it to have to substantially increase its capital expenditures.

I think one thing the market is saying is that it doesn’t like eBay’s purchase of Skype for $2.6 billion. I agree with the market here. I like the company, I just don’t like the price eBay paid for it. That said I doubt that any failure in Skype will be enough to sink eBay. The market may also be saying that the Google-monster will surely do eBay in. I doubt that pressure from competitors like Google or Yahoo will be significant enough to substantially hurt the company. Not in the long run anyway. And certainly not enough to justify the $30 price tag eBay now sports.

In my own analysis, I assume that eBay’s FCF growth falls off a proverbial cliff and I still came up with a value that is at least twice the current market price. In other words, I think eBay represents the dollar being sold by Mr. Market for 50¢. Yet exploring the reasons Mr. Market is selling eBay so cheaply are worth some thought.