天下縱橫

隨筆而已。不必當真。
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The last bubble to be poked.

(2008-10-16 19:05:35) 下一個

Last bubble? We see no bubble any more.

Can't see? Can't feel?

Well, it is the last bubble we are facing for a very long time.

The bubble, US bond bubble, will be bursting in not too long time frame.

The bond bubble is built on dollar bubble, which has no fundmental to support its debt weight and no physical treasure to sustain its size. The dollar bubble will burst, which also means the bond bubble will burst with US government declair bankruptcy.

Sure, US may forfiet its debts, but let along with its savings, with capabilities to recover in a generatiion. When creditors dump the dollar, the bond bubble will burst in the process.

The end of this last crisis will be a new currency. All of the people who no matter have how much wealth in stock and real estate, will see their possesions repriced. It will keep many to continue working to their death, let along the golden returement years. Imagine this, what if your 401k which has $200,000 in it be repriced with a new dollar bill that equals $100 old dollar? The 401k will shrink instantly to $2,000. Even we go back to 1920's, 2000 merely bought 3 cars.

The relative wealth of US will evaporate in the process of this repricing. And assets will be cheap for foreign investors to pick them up. You think your million dollar house is a lot of wealth, no more, not by then when dollar is becoming worthless.

Global diversification is a prudent measure now.



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