天下縱橫

隨筆而已。不必當真。
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Mid year review, 2008 and beyong

(2008-07-10 21:04:40) 下一個
I just read my writing in Oct 2007. It is as accurate as I can be.

Now many events are unfolding in front of us, from Bear Stern bail out to possible Fanne Mae and Freddie Mac bail out, the events are happening like chain reaction, one explosion as another. The real estate market is in chaos, stock market fares no better.Investors are scared and lost. What do we do now, they asking themselves.

If they followed my assets diverstication back in 2007, they should do well. But it is not too late, there still time on their side. Will they do it is another question.

Inflation is in full force to blow savings out like hurricane. People are still debating if it is a storm or hurricane and when it will pass. I can say for certain, it isnt a storm, it is a huge hurricane that will last 5 years with debris scattered all around after the hurrican pass.

So what it will look like for rest of this year 2008 and next 2009?
2008, stock will bounce between now and Oct. It will crash from there on from DJIA 11000 to 8000 in 2009, pretty bold prediction. To react to Fanne Mae bailed out program, the amount of liquidity injection will be unprecedent, to drive up oil beyong $180 and gold beyond $1300.

2009 will be a start of doom year. Nothing will be good, unemployment, stocks, bonds, and commodities will all fare bad, with the only exception of Gold. For gold is beyong monetary policy, for it is out control of FED reserve. The government will not ban it, for its value in the huge sea of paper money is small.

So be prepared, exit market when you can. And put assets in different class of investments, and pay off the mortgage if one can.

The world will still exist, the sun will still be shine. But people's saving may not be. So act today and sit back tomorrow.

Good luck.
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