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2007年宏觀展望- 筆記 (Notes on the outlook of 2007)

(2006-12-28 11:57:43) 下一個

 

  • Inflation: low, due to globalization, new tech and market reforms
  • Liquidity: ample. Excess global savings will hold down bond yields and Fed will cut interest rate
  • Debt: Debt Supercycle in not near end.
  • Equity: beneficiary. Room for multiples to rise. Valuations are reasonable. Best opportunities might be in emerging markets and US.
    • US equity: Prefer beneficiary of the capital spending cycle (instead of consumer spending). Overweight energy.
  • Bond: not much opportunity
  • Resources: bullish case for energy prices. Base metal prices are vulnerable. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate.
  • Currency: US dollars has downside risks. Competitive devaluation- a key theme.
  • US economy: mid-cycle slowdown. Housing downturn has further to run. Employment will grow. Corporate finance- strong.
  • Risks: geopolitics & an end to yen carry trade. Deflationary risks would result liquidity being dumped into the system, fueling higher asset prices.


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