2007年宏觀展望- 筆記 (Notes on the outlook of 2007)

 

• Inflation: low, due to globalization, new tech and market reforms
• Liquidity: ample. Excess global savings will hold down bond yields and Fed will cut interest rate
• Debt: Debt Supercycle in not near end.
• Equity: beneficiary. Room for multiples to rise. Valuations are reasonable. Best opportunities might be in emerging markets and US.
  • US equity: Prefer beneficiary of the capital spending cycle (instead of consumer spending). Overweight energy.
• Bond: not much opportunity
• Resources: bullish case for energy prices. Base metal prices are vulnerable. Gold prices are likely to fluctuate.
• Currency: US dollars has downside risks. Competitive devaluation- a key theme.
• US economy: mid-cycle slowdown. Housing downturn has further to run. Employment will grow. Corporate finance- strong.
• Risks: geopolitics & an end to yen carry trade. Deflationary risks would result liquidity being dumped into the system, fueling higher asset prices.