我為何覺得股市反彈在即

股市反彈在即的原因

FA:

(1)SP500 is trading for 15.30x 2007 and 13.50x 2008 earnings, very

attractive.

Anyone know what is the PE for SP500 in 2000?


(2)The P/E for the overall market translates to an earnings yield of

7.2%, which is far more attractive than the 4.02% level available on

a 10 year T-Note today

Anyone know what is 10 year T-Note yield in 2000

(3) The trouble sector is financial in 2007, Can Fed help? Yes.

The trouble sector was Tech in 2000, Could Fed help? not

much.



TA:

(1)6周的調整接近尾聲, 曆次大調整都是6-7周. 多數6周結束（牛市是真結束

，熊市是暫停，反彈後，接著跌）.

(2)大盤處於嚴重超賣狀態, 這周每天都是以近千個股票創52周新低.

(3)NAZ強勁, 6周隻跌10%, 2000年大熊開始時, NAZ 6周從高位跌了28%才有反

彈(SP500 也是跌15%以上).

(4)盡管各指數都跌破200MA, 但破而不慌, 目前可看成牛市深度調整. 且已調

整到位.

(5)SP500 1410是個很好的支撐．今天收在1416.


綜合我的TA和FA, 反彈在即! 以後的牛熊,視反彈的力度而定.


一般中長期我是看200MA,但也要具體分析.


GOOD LUCK!