My weekend Sunday, 07/23/2006

What a relaxing weekend. I had a lot of sleep. Talked to my parents and had a very interesting conversation with a friend who is working in the Wall Street. We went to furniture shopping. Have known each other for more than half a year, but we never have a real talk due to the hectic work schedule. Always with a group of friends and made fun of each other.

How good to have an interesting and encouraging talk! When asked what he wants to doa fter retiring from the Wall Street, he said he wants to be a chef, making alot of good recipes and preparing delicious foods for people in the places like Florida . I challenged him by saying that he may not able to adapt to the low pace job like that. He responded me that he may want to have his own company by working with lots of people he like now in the industry and already connected to. This is an interesting person with lots of passion and dreams for his lifetime.  I am sincerely glad we made that talk last night. I learned a lot from what he said as well as himself. Now I feel more close to this open-minded, sweet, and dream-driven American guy. Interesting thing is that the cultural distance which I thought will never be overcome appears not there. The whole conversation is more contents driven. Is that because I become more and more belonging to the part of this American society or just because all the understanding about the life for all the human being is evolving toward the same Big Truth.

I think the Wall Street job basically is a game. You played with a group people to against the rest groups of people in the particular arena. If you like it, great, if you like it just for money, well, try to balance yourself in a certain way and got to know where to stop before your mental stability or physical health is gone.

After a solid nap in the Sunday afternoon, I decided to do some readings. I stepped back to my familiar Columbia U Learner Hall, a beautiful melody mixed with the fresh air after rain stopped me. My favorite Revolutions-Etude, Op. 10-12 was there with me. The boy was doing a great job. I like the strength created in his performance which drives people up. Wondering if so-called grand piano is because its sounds are so solid and strong that make me often feel I was standing in front of the Niagara Fall and was shocked by its power. I suddenly found I was never lost and will never be lost. The western world is never far away from me since my childhood.

Read an article I like talking about the opportunity and the risk of the China’s Financial Market. Great points, I really like it.

中國將迎來真正的金融爆發

經過“五一”長假後的短短 6 個交易日，截至 15 號收盤，上證綜指已較節前收盤價上升 223.87 點，升幅為 15.54% ；如果與去年股改啟動前的收盤價相比，上證綜指已經勁漲 504.94 點，升幅達 43.56% ；如果與去年 6 月 6 日創下的最低點位 998.23 點相比，在不到一年的時間裏，上證綜指已經暴漲 665.86 點，升幅高達 66.70% 。
當然，從來沒有隻漲不跌的市場。但無論如何，股市在曆經 5 年熊市之後的重新活躍，可以看作一個前所未有的、全新的金融投資時代正在拉開大幕。
盡管從當前的股市表現來看，短線調整隨時可能出現。但這並不妨礙我們從更加宏觀的層麵和金融體係整體轉型的角度，來看待這個全新金融投資時代的即將來臨。
首先，股市的製度重塑接近完成，全新的市場格局正在奠定。
隨著上市公司股權分置改革的順利推進，股市的最大製度毒瘤正在被徹底清除；過去數年醜聞迭出的證券公司，其市場化重組也已基本完成，綜合治理初見成效；引入 QFII 後的“鯰魚效應”也開始彰顯，機構投資者規模激增，市場活力持續增強；過去 5 年宏觀經濟的持續向好，催生了新一代個人投資者的快速成長，他們有比較健全的投資思維，接受過比較良好的市場化導向的教育。
這些因素都表明，市場已經運行在一個全新的基礎之上，被壓抑數年的金融投資需求在此基礎上正在全麵激發。
其次，國有銀行改革基本完成，金融資產的配置將更趨有效。過去 3 年來，國有銀行係統的改革急流勇進，大刀闊斧。在“外匯注資—股份改造—引入境外投資—公開上市”四步走的指導思路下，截至今時，建設銀行已經成功登陸香港市場，中國銀行也將很快迎來公開上市。按照預期中的時間表，工商銀行也將在下半年登陸資本市場。這將有助於脫胎於“官僚體係”的中國國有商業銀行在強大的資本市場外部監督下實現真正的市場化運作，更加有效地配置金融資源。
此外，農業銀行也在探索可能的改革模式，雖然目前尚無定論，但其與農信社係統一起融入社會主義新農村建設的基調中，側重於為新農村建設服務的未來改革定位相信也將日漸清晰。
如此，則在銀行業金融機構全部近 40 萬億元資產總額中占去逾半壁江山的四大國有銀行，其資產配置的日益市場化，將從根本上改變中國金融資產的配置格局，並以此推進金融市場向更具效率的方向演變。
第 三，利率市場化加速推進，金融產品創新日益蜂起。在銀行體係改革、上市公司股權分置改革、利率加速市場化、人民幣匯率形成機製改革等因素的相互激發之下，金融產品創新的動能在加速累積。在今後數年中，新上市的金融產品的品種將急劇增多，推出頻率將急劇加快，尤其是利率衍生產品及匯率衍生產品。當然，基於股 票及股票指數的金融衍生品也將迎來它的黃金時代。
通過這些創新金融產品之間的相互 勾連，在未來不長的時間內，股市、債市、期市、匯市甚至房市之間的割裂情形將日漸彌合，金融市場的整體性、有效性、聯動性將大大增強，投資產品的不斷豐富也將有利於提高市場的活躍燃敖灰妝怵?取６源耍?銼鋼械慕鶉諮萇?方灰姿?梢鑰醋饕桓鑾坑辛Φ南質當碚鼇?
最後，大國貨幣崛起初露端倪，人民幣逐步走向完全可兌換利在長遠。自從去年 7 月 21 日人民幣兌美元一次性小幅調升，並擺脫單一釘住美元狀態轉為釘住一籃子貨幣後，至昨日美元對人民幣匯率中間價首度“破 8 ”，人民幣作為新興的大國貨幣，其崛起態勢已經端倪初露。
眾所周知，作為一個無需闡述的事實，一個強大的國家必須擁有強大的貨幣，一個正在走向強大的國家也必須擁有正在走向強大的貨幣。中國要在本世紀中葉實現中華民族的偉大複興，人民幣的和平崛起也必將伴隨這一過程。
也就是說，隨著人民幣匯率形成機製的日益完善、市場作用的日益增強，一個更富彈性的人民幣匯率形成機製將有助於中國在本世紀中葉實現中華民族的偉大複興。
當然，上述過程也並非全無問題。比如，我們注意到，在最近一輪波瀾壯闊的金融體係改革中，民間資本的介入並不充分，這在某種程度上甚至有可能影響金融體係市場化改革的最終效果。
但無論如何，趨勢已經很明顯。即在 21 世紀的第一個 10 年中，中國傳統的以國有銀行為主體的金融體係將逐步完成其自身的改造升級，一個以資本市場尤其是股票市場為主體的現代金融體係將迅速誕生。這同時也意味著，伴隨著實體經濟的持續穩定增長，中國將迎來一個真正的金融爆發時代。
來源：第一財經日報