大山隨筆
隨想隨記
博文
(2020-07-27 15:42:27)
去年六月曾預測“走上中國民粹的另一個極端，正好會迎合美鷹派的“脫鉤”（decoupling）算計，最終結果難料。”有利的策略是“（1）內善其事，（2）廣結友邦，（3）化敵為友。”三者中至少要做好倆個才會有勝算。（參見2019-6-4的評論：https://blog.wenxuecity.com/myblog/67092/201905/28638.html）這一年下來，決策者近期似采納極左路線，與這三策背道而馳，讓大好形[閱讀全文]
(2020-07-17 13:39:32)
<Bloomberg>NextChina:TitfortatJuly16,2020ItwasadizzyingweekfortheU.S.-Chinarelationship.OnMonday,BeijingimposedsanctionsonfourAmericanlawmakers,includingSenatorsMarcoRubioandTedCruz.ThatwasinretaliationforsanctionsWashingtonleviedtheweekbeforeagainstChineseofficialslinkedtothedetentionofethnicminoritiesinXinjiang.Thetit-for-tatacceleratedfromthere.TheU.S.denouncedChina’sclaimsintheSout...[閱讀全文]
(2020-05-28 14:19:20)
5stepstocreateanestateplan
Seewaystohelpyousaveontaxesandprotectyourassetsandprivacy.
FidelityViewpoints–05/18/202010MinRead Keytakeaways
Considersettingupanestateplan,especiallyifyouwanttominimizeprobatecosts,protectyourprivacy,andfindwaystosaveontaxes.
Anestateplanhelpsyoucontrolthedispositionofyourassetsuponyourpassing,ensuringthatassetsflowtoyourheirsaccordingtoyourwis...[閱讀全文]
Seewaystohelpyousaveontaxesandprotectyourassetsandprivacy.
FidelityViewpoints–05/18/202010MinRead Keytakeaways
Considersettingupanestateplan,especiallyifyouwanttominimizeprobatecosts,protectyourprivacy,andfindwaystosaveontaxes.
Anestateplanhelpsyoucontrolthedispositionofyourassetsuponyourpassing,ensuringthatassetsflowtoyourheirsaccordingtoyourwis...[閱讀全文]
(2020-02-28 10:14:40)
文摘：2020-02-28
COVID2019
Globalspreadisrealandhappending-triggeringglobalstockmarketsell-off,10yTNdroptobelow1.16ahistoriclowest,yieldcurvenegativeagainwithinrecentyear
WallStreets-expectnoearninggrowthin2020;disrruptioninglobalsupplychainwillcauserevenueandprofitdownglobally;noonesurehowlongitwilllastasfornow
Oneofthebigbulls,JeremySiegelfromWharton,hascautionembeddedinhisopti...[閱讀全文]
(2020-02-27 10:40:17)
2020-02-27文摘：“去年已有百人感染新冠15死專家:新發傳染病不能直報”
https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/02/27/9176412.html
12019年12月29日，武漢當地醫院通過PUE監測係統，發現了最早報告的4個新冠肺炎病例。但實際上，根據中國CDC的回溯性分析，以發病日統計，2019年12月31日前已經有104人感染，15人死亡。
2很多人都在質疑“非典”之後建立的覆蓋全國的傳染病直報[閱讀全文]
(2020-02-19 23:19:36)
02/20/2020analysisafter9thDemocraticdebatandbeforeNevadavoting:
>>TheNH&Iowaresultsgivetheclearsignals:1)socialistswillnotwingeneralpopularityevenwintheDemo'snomination,thatisshownby(a)Senders+Warrendon'tgainanynewgroundandfarbelow50%evenwithintheparty(b)AmyK'spopupjustduetoherclearrejectiontosocialism;2)moneyisnotthe#1facttowinthiselectionasshownbyTomS'nullresults;3)lar...[閱讀全文]
(2020-01-30 09:28:10)
熱文：記錄一下首次發現新型冠狀病毒的經曆https://www.wenxuecity.com/news/2020/01/29/9068685.html[閱讀全文]
(2020-01-29 09:02:23)
DataScienceinFinance:https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=8-k&owner=include&count=40&action=getcurrentFromTheorytoPracticehttp://cfany.gallery.video/fullconference/detail/videos/most-recent/video/6125332407001/predicting-returns-with-text-data:-data-science-in-finance:-from-theory-to-practice?autoStart=truehttp://cfany.gallery.video/fullconference/detail/...[閱讀全文]
(2019-12-02 08:20:54)
文摘-2020預測{asof12/1/2019,Dow:28,051.41;S&P500:3,140.98;Nasdaq:8,665.47;GlobalDow:3,152.93;Gold:1,463.40,Oil:56.37}Today'sarticlesabout2020'sstockmarketoutlook:>>TheNewYorkTimes(November30)–"TheStockMarket'sDangersAreEasiertoSeeNow”
>>TheWallStreetJournal(November29)–"WallStreet's2020Prediction:TheStockMarketWillHaveaSo-SoYear-Manyf...[閱讀全文]
>>TheWallStreetJournal(November29)–"WallStreet's2020Prediction:TheStockMarketWillHaveaSo-SoYear-Manyf...[閱讀全文]
(2019-10-29 16:24:40)
居京港作家陳冠中解讀中國人看香港的幾大誤區"1984年，一國兩製方案一出台，我就完全支持，自己都想不到可以用一國兩製來做這個事。尤其是鄧小平說，五十年後也可以不變，我們都願意相信這個是很有創意的想法。所以我自己是接受的，接受起草《基本法》，有了香港的小憲法之後可以按憲法做事。所以很多民主派人士，包括李柱銘、去世的司徒華，都是《基本法》[閱讀全文]
