LMTreceivedtwobigfundingsfromUSgovernmentrecently.Itisthisadministration'smaingoaltomaintainUSmilitarypower.Duringthetimethattwobigpowersintheworldwerefightingeachother,thisworldbecomesmoredangerous.IexpectLMT,GD,RTNetc.weaponmakerstoprosperinnext4-6years.[
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由於蘋果季報不錯,使科技股這幾天大幅上漲.從圖形和近兩年的股價表現看,GOOG看起來是最有潛力的一支.其多年積累可能終於到了有所回報的時候.現在股價仍在可買範圍內.離不久前的突破點不遠.FB,NFLX下跌20%後達到反彈點.NVDA,PYPL達到支撐點.從公司規模和現金流看,未來可能也達到$1T規模的是AMZN,GOOGL,MSFT($800B+).但是由於科技股仍然處於超常擁有狀態,所以對它們在盤子中的權重需[
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AfterFB’sbadquarter,majorfundswouldneedtotrimtheirtechholdsbecausethosearetheirbiggestholdingsandhavequitebigriskatthemoment.Soldecidedtotakesomeprofitsanddecreaseexposuretotechsector.PositionreducedincludeAmzn,aapl,sq,Pypl,nvda,Msft.etc.Thissectorrotationislikelytobebiggerthanbeforeandmaylastlonger.[
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Iexitedsomepositionsthatturnedouttobestupid(Forexample,FBandTWTR).Oncepositionislost,itishardtoaccumulateagain.
Somosttimes,beabletoenduresomepainisthekeytosuccess.[
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PEPiscurrentlytradingat18timesearning.3.8%yield.Itisgettingveryattractive.Itisalsotoofardownfrom50MA.Usuallywhenpricegetstoofarawayfrom50MA,itwillgetclosetoit.Ithinkitisaniceentrypoint.[
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MMMdropped20%+fromitshighandjustreportedaworstreportinlastdecade.Butitstillhasverystrongbalancesheetanddiversifiedproducts.ItisoneofthebestmanufactureinUS.
Ithinkitisagoodtimetopickupsomeshareshere.
Iwillinitialsomepositontodayandcontinuetoaccumulateonceitdropsmoreincomingmonths(possibly).
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ExitFBentirely.Raisecashlevelinuncertaintymarket.[
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Hereisthecurrentportfolio2015holdingsafterrecentadjustment.AfterbigsellofatthebeginingofFeb2018,marketishavingaV-shapedrecovery.Noideahowmuchsteamleftinit.Butwedolearnedgoodlessonfromrecentselloff.Hereisthelist:1.Nevereversellintopanic.Therewillbemuchbettertimetosell(liketoday).Sellintopanicwillhurtyourportfoliobigtimebecauseyouwillhavetochaseitatmuchhigherlevel.2.Thebesttimetobuyisbloodonthestree...[
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金融市場上的叢林法則與動物界的一樣，就是弱肉強食。不過市場上的強弱基本上是由兩個因素決定的，一個是資金(Capital)，另一個是洞察力(Vision)。
關於資金(Capital)的因素，最明顯的就是在市場上誰能動用的錢多誰就越有優勢，但又不隻是單純地由資金的規模來區分強弱。例如當一場金融危機來臨時，如果一家大型對衝基金或是華爾街的投行所擁有的億萬資產中融資的部[
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