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every ingredient in history is lining up for a big one(by mannfm
(2007-11-21 15:52:53)
Thisabouthastobeabearmarketthoughaseveryingredientinhistoryisliningupforabigone.YoucanseethecreditsqueezedrivingtheyenupaseventheEuroisweakagainstit.Theworldneedscreditandthereisn'tany.
ThereisonethingaboutElliottwave.Themovesinthemarketsdon'thavetomakesensewiththenews.WhyonGodsgreenearthwouldthestockmarketsaroundtheworldmakenewhighswhenitwasprettycleartothoseinsidethefinancialstherewasacredit...[閱讀全文]
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a peak in commodities short term(by mannfm11)
(2007-11-21 11:25:23)
whywouldyouwanttoinvestinanythingaboutcommoditiesotherthanmaybegold.Thecommercialsareinthisbusiness.Whatwouldyoudowith50,000bushelsofwheatotherthanpaystorageonit?Thesameevenforcopperandasfarasthatgoes,yougettoofarintosilver,italsopilesuptoquiteaweight.Theworldgetstheideathatinvestmentandspeculationarethesame.
Idobelievetherearewealthypeoplethatdoinvestincommodities.But,theyhavehistoryontheirsi...[閱讀全文]
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Recession without Romance(ZT)
(2007-11-20 23:02:01)

RecessionwithoutRomance RecessionwithoutRomance
Eventhesmartcontrariansareconfusedbyourpredicament
PaulB.Farrell,oneofmyfavoriteeconomicswritersatMarketWatch,published17reasonsAmericaneedsarecessiontodaytomakethecase,"Yes,Americaneedsarecession.BernankeandPaulsonwon'tadmitit.Andinvestorshatethem.We'realltrappedinoutdated1990swishfulthinkingabouta"neweconomy"and"perpetualgro...[閱讀全文]
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The great depression of 2008(ZT)
(2007-11-20 21:02:32)
Thegreatdepressionof2008–themotherofalldepressions ArticlebyPascalMolliere Saturday17thNovember2007,01:46 2008issettobethedarkesteveryearinfinancialhistoryaccordingtoGoldmanSachs–anewreportclaims.
TheTimesreportsthatthecreditcrunchissoseriousthatitmayforcetheUSbankingsystemtocutlendingbyasmuchas$4,000billion,promptinga“substantialrecession”intheUS....[閱讀全文]
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中國曆史留給中國十四大\'中國特色\' 哲龍博客
(2007-11-19 23:01:51)
中國曆史留給中國十四大"中國特色"哲龍博客
 第一個中國特色，（排斥外地人）：
中國的地方語言和外國話差不多，外地人根本聽不懂，再加上巨大的民族差別，習俗差別，信仰差別，本地人產生強烈的地方意識情緒和排斥外地人是必然的事情。
第二個中國特色，（內部爭鬥拚殺不懂友好關愛）：
中國曆史就是窩裏鬥的曆史,春秋無義戰,戰國七國並列,秦漢大[閱讀全文]
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專訪章詒和zt
(2007-11-19 23:00:25)
專訪章詒和：被強製遺忘的四大禁區，我就是“怨婦”
發布者thchen在07-11-1909:17
　請您惠顧讚助商
鼓勵其長期支持CND
QualityBrand!
CNDAmazon
Cameras,Books...
亞洲周刊江迅／反右運動、三年大饑荒、十年文化革命、八九六四槍聲，合在一起，是被強製性遺忘的四大禁區。僅僅建立文革博物館是不夠的，應建四大博物館，這才是正視當代曆史的科學態度。了解和反思[閱讀全文]
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The bigger risk is interest rate risk(by mannfm11)
(2007-11-19 22:06:20)
theonethingthatgetstheseguysisinterestraterisk.Notmanypeoplethatput20%downonahomeeverlosethepropertyanduntiltheentireportfoliogoesunderwater,thesurfacelooksprettygood.Theymightbethefronton$4trillion,buttheyholdthepaperonsomethinglike20millionhomes.Theycouldendupowning20millionhomes.
Theinsurersareinamoreperilousposition.IthinkthebailoutwouldbetherealongtimebeforeithittheGSE's.Houstonwehaveapro...[閱讀全文]
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a train wreck or just a hiccup? (by mannfm11)
(2007-11-19 21:57:37)
Areweinthemidstofatrainwreckorjustahiccup?Thelikelylossesoutofsubprimewillandhastakendownsomeinstitutions,buttheyaren'tenoughtofliptheworldupsidedown.Thereisthephysicalcollateral,notpapercollateralbehindtheseloans.Therealestatecrunch,mostlikelyincommercialaswellasresidentialisanothermatter.Itmightbeonlyamodestpercentageoftheeconomy,butitisapercentagethatineconomicsisamultipliedpercentage,meaningit...[閱讀全文]
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an eight year cycle down(by surfing bear)
(2007-11-18 22:12:46)
thereismorethanapossibilityofamajorbearmarketinmostassets.Oilmaynotfallbelow$70,buttherestoftheeconomyshouldbeinaneightyearcycledownbecauseof:
1.Creditbubblepopped;
2.RealEstatebubblepopped;
3.Consumerspendinghaslostitsfueldueto1&2;
4.Oilwillremainexpensiveandtaxconsumersmore;
4.Businesswillhavetocutback;
5.TheUSDwillnotbouncebacktoover100;
6.Asiancountrieswillnotke...[閱讀全文]
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Whom to blame for the RE bust(by raven et al)
(2007-11-17 18:15:59)

InmyopiniontheREbrokeristhelowestformoflifeonthisplanet.Iftheytoldahomebuyerto"buythehouseregradlessofwhatloanyouhavetogetbecauseitcanonlygoupinprice",whatdidtheyhavetolose?Theywouldgettheircommissionregardlessofwhathappenedtothebuyer.
Thesecondchiefculpritisthebuyerthemselves.They"knew"thatpropertyvaluescouldnotgodown,sowhynotbuyallthattheycould?Afterall,ifyourincomeis$20,000/yearandyouwereab...[閱讀全文]
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