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“writeoff recession,”(hussman)
(2008-02-03 21:18:37)
thecurrenteconomicdownturnislikelytofocusitsdamageonassetprices–theU.S.dollar,homevalues,lowandmid-qualitydebt,andequityprices(largelythroughthecombinationofnarrowingprofitmarginsandlowervaluations).Inshort,Iexpectthatweareintheprocessofwhatmightbecalleda“writeoffrecession,”wheresignificantamountsofassetvalueandperceivedwealthwillultimatelybewrittenoff.Therewillundoubtedlybesome“wealtheffects”...[閱讀全文]
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SPhousing(ZT)
(2008-02-03 20:42:23)

SPhousingPrevious|Nextstars signintovote votes0 comments0 views1473 Comments Noonehaspostedanycommentsyet… [閱讀全文]
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中國人道德淪喪的原因zt
(2008-02-03 20:13:10)
中國人道德淪喪的原因
發布者thchen在08-02-0309:08
　請您惠顧讚助商
鼓勵其長期支持CND
QualityBrand!
CNDAmazon
Cameras,Books...
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　劉自立
中國人有沒有道德觀？這是一個問題。
道德建設是不是可以自外於政治體製和極權主義意識形態，就像我們看到的——隻要搞出一種類似空姐的微笑服務，道德建[閱讀全文]
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The deleveraging of PMI(mannfm11)
(2008-02-03 17:33:46)
Thetruthofthematteristhetrendinrealestatethatcaughtpeople'sattentionwasputinactionbytheadventofPMIintheearly1970'sandsincethentheinnovationshaveperpetuatedthetrendofmoreandmorequalifiedbuyers.Ifyoucheckhomepricespriorto1970,youwillfindthatmostequitywasacquiredbypaymentofprincipal,notappreciation.Iwouldventureaftertheremovalofthegoldbackingforthedollar,mostinflationhasbeenderivedfromacontinuallybub...[閱讀全文]
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triple top of 30-year US Treasury bond(contrarian)
(2008-02-02 08:37:37)

MaybethemostimportantchartwecanthinkofrightnowrelatingtoourconcernsoverTreasuriesliesbelow.Andyes,it’sasmuchasymbolasitisaboutsubstance.Hopefullyithelpsputabitofanexclamationpointbehindthisdiscussion.We’relookingatthe30-yearUSTreasurybondfrom1980topresent.Asyoucansee,we’vetriedourbesttodrawinwhatweconsidertobeacriticalmulti-decadetrendline.Whatisabsolutelyclearisthatthemulti-decadeseriesofrisin...[閱讀全文]
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The boomers created this monster, and now they will kill it(ZT)
(2008-02-01 20:26:42)

interestingpostfromanotherboardbearking
NEW2/1/20087:57:22PM
Unfortunately,theglutofbabyboomersisnowmovingintotheyearsapproachingretirement.TheleadingedgeoftheboomersalreadyHAVEretired.Whilethebabyboomgenerationspansmanyyears,itisafactthatpeoplewhoapproachretirementbecomemoreconservative.Theyshunrisk.Theytakemeasurestopreservec...[閱讀全文]
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30 month bear puts us in March of 2010(mannfm11)
(2008-01-30 22:26:06)


mannfm11
NEW1/30/20085:18:24PM Ittook30monthstoreachbottominthe2000-2002run,36ifyoucounttheMarch2003bottom,whichwasalittleabovetheOctober2002bottomWehada60monthbullifyoucount10/02to10/07,whichisn'texactlyoutoftherealm.Thetopsof7/07and10/07almostmirrorthebottomsofthesummerof02and10/02.IforgetifthefirstbottomhappenedinJulyorAugus...[閱讀全文]
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GM and USA(Hutchinson )
(2008-01-29 06:24:32)

TheUSiscurrentlyinthepositionofGeneralMotorsinabout1970,splendidinitspossessionofamajorityshareoftheUSautomobilemarketandapparentlyinvulnerabletocompetitivethreat,yetinrealityburdenedwithimpossiblewelfareprogramsthatafoolishmanagementhadnegotiatedduringthegoodyears.ForGeneralMotors,thefutureafter1970wasoneofsteadilyslippingmarketshare,from60%oftheUSmarkettoabout25%,ofasteadilyagingworkforce,a...[閱讀全文]
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the most likely outcome is hyperstagflation(smokey)
(2008-01-26 22:33:03)
TheFedcannotcreatehyperinflationinalowwageservice/retaileconomy.Easycreditandmonetizationatthispointwillatbestproduceahyperstagflationaryscenariowhereexponentiallyrisingpricesfornecessitieslikefoodandfueloverwhelmtheeconomy'sabilitytoexpand.
Inorderforhyperinflationtooccur,thegovernmentwouldhavetocontinuallyincreasedollardonationstothepublicaspricesriseduetomonetaryinflation.
Sincethisproc...[閱讀全文]
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MM and T-bond while
(2008-01-26 11:54:36)

thedebtmarketsareimploding...ray_heritage
NEW1/26/200811:31:56AM ThisweeksconferencecallbyDonCoxeshedmorelightabouthowgravethesituationisbecoming.
Despitetreasyieldsbeingnegative,allacrosstheboard,thereisburgeoningdemandforhighqualitydebt.Parthastodowiththefactthat,intheUSA,71%ofallcorpdebtisnowofjunkquality.Treasuryshavebecomes...[閱讀全文]
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