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斯塔默為何可能需要讓布萊爾回歸
Why Starmer might need to bring back Blair
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-starmer-might-need-to-bring-back-blair/
BY TIM ROSS FEBRUARY 1, 2025
英國首相似乎總是在海外，一些盟友希望他能像他的前任一樣，將更多外交事務委托給他人。
英國-巴西-二十國集團峰會。英國首相基爾·斯塔默的出訪時間比他的任何一位前任都要長。
蒂姆·羅斯是POLITICO駐歐洲和英國的首席政治記者。他的最新著作《壓倒性勝利：2024年大選內幕》於11月出版。
1997年，英國前首相托尼·布萊爾在曆史性大選中獲勝一年後，曾表示政府官員在他上任後做的第一件事就是沒收了他的護照。
“說真的！然後他們就把剩下的時間都用來帶你環遊世界了，”他說。
自去年7月就任英國首相以來，基爾·斯塔默也發現自己處境非常相似。他身陷國際外交的漩渦，忙於處理英國對烏克蘭的承諾，尋求重塑與歐盟的關係，並為美國總統唐納德·特朗普的回歸做準備。
事實上，斯塔默上任六個月以來的出國旅行時間比他任何一位前任都要長，累計海外旅行天數達到31天。新年伊始，這一數字還在增長，斯塔默目前已準備好於周一在布魯塞爾與歐盟領導人共進晚餐。唐寧街官員希望，很快他也能乘飛機前往華盛頓與特朗普會麵。
斯塔默顯然致力於外交事務，鑒於眾多國際威脅正拖累英國經濟，很難說他的做法是錯的。但飛行裏程本身也是有代價的。
從政治角度來看，首相麵臨著被視為缺席者的風險，而且已經有警告稱，麵對糟糕的民調結果，他可能會被指控“逃離”英國。對於那些想把他描繪成脫離現實的反對者來說，這無疑是一個輕而易舉的打擊，即使是奄奄一息的保守黨也不會放過這個機會。
此外，還有機會成本。出差會占用領導人大量有限的時間，而且也很累。
此外，還要花費大量時間在英國國內接待世界各國領導人，他們會來唐寧街10號與斯塔默共進午餐，或者——就像本月早些時候法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍那樣——在首相位於契克斯的官方鄉間別墅共進晚餐。
但他並非沒有其他工作要做。
斯塔默在7月以壓倒性優勢當選，承諾在保守黨執政14年後重建英國。這14年裏，英國經曆了脫歐的動蕩、兩次公投、五任首相、一場疫情、一場烏克蘭戰爭、移民激增、國家醫療服務體係（NHS）陷入困境、市場崩潰以及通貨膨脹猖獗。
前首相托尼·布萊爾會被召回嗎？
然而，入主唐寧街後，工黨團隊驚訝地發現，首相的時間竟然被外交事務占用了如此之多。當然，這部分是因為斯塔默的前幕僚長蘇·格雷未能讓新政府做好應對權力現實的準備。“根本沒有計劃，”一位政府助手說道。
但自從工黨選舉勝利的幕後策劃者摩根·麥克斯威尼（Morgan McSweeney）於10月接替格雷以來，他為唐寧街10號注入了缺失的紀律感，並塑造了清晰的戰略方向。由於斯塔默專注於日益增多的外交危機，麥克斯威尼決定大部分時間留在倫敦。他很少陪同首相出行——盡管這也是因為政府在他出國時習慣於偏離方向。
唐寧街應對這些相互競爭的壓力的策略還包括為首相團隊注入經驗豐富的老將，尤其是在外交事務方麵。例如，麥克斯威尼在上任後向前任首相征求意見時，對布萊爾的得力助手喬納森·鮑威爾印象深刻，於是任命他為國家安全顧問。
斯塔默還提名了布萊爾時代工黨大選成功的教父彼得·曼德爾森擔任下一任英國駐美國大使。
然而，鑒於布萊爾時代唐寧街就已任命了如此多的人選，一個問題便凸顯出來：這位前首相本人會被召回嗎？令人驚訝的是，答案可能並非“永遠不會”。
雖然斯塔默感受到國際責任的壓力，但在下次選舉前的某個時候，麥克斯威尼會希望他的老板重返競選之路，而不是在外國機場鋪滿紅地毯的停機坪上漫步。
一個解決方案是將更多外交事務移交給外交大臣，甚至在內閣中增設一個“第一國務卿”的職位來減輕負擔。最近已有先例：在2024年大選前，
時任首相裏希·蘇納克（Rishi Sunak）召回前首相戴維·卡梅倫（David Cameron）承擔外交重任，以便他能夠專注於競選。
斯塔默政府中的一些人認為蘇納克的這一決定是明智之舉，尤其是在選舉年。（有些人甚至遊說卡梅倫出任新任駐美國大使。）那麽，到時候他們有可能對布萊爾采取同樣的措施嗎？
原因有幾個：首先，這位精力充沛、71歲的前領導人可能會蓋過現任首相的風頭。其次，兩人並不一定在所有政策要點上都意見一致。
盡管斯塔默的團隊擁有豐富的布萊爾時代智慧，但麥克斯威尼並不認為這項任務是布萊爾式的。 （可以肯定地說，斯塔默在去年的選舉中未能擊敗布萊爾1997年創紀錄的多數票，因此人們心中揮之不去的嫉妒之情依然存在。）
此外，布萊爾仍然是一個極具爭議的人物，尤其是在2003年促成美國前總統喬治·W·布什入侵伊拉克的過程中。讓他負責外交政策簡報，對工黨左翼及其他地區的許多人來說，無疑是一種侮辱。
然而，卡梅倫在外交事務上的遺產——最明顯的是促成了英國脫歐——也帶來了痛苦的分裂。最終，對蘇納克來說，關鍵在於保守黨在選舉臨近之際的糟糕處境。他需要能夠專注於國內問題，以避免保守黨徹底覆滅，否則，這種情況可能會發生。
斯塔默的民調數據和個人支持率已經很差，極右翼改革英國在投票意向調查中已經與工黨遙遙領先。當然，民調可能不可靠，而且距離下次選舉還有很長的路要走。斯塔默本人最近向《政治報》表示，他不會在2029年迫不得已的情況下宣布投票結果。
工黨的前景需要達到真正的危機點，布萊爾才會被邀請回來。但隨著選舉臨近，認為斯塔默的團隊永遠不會絕望到要求工黨最成功的領導人最後一次交出護照的想法是愚蠢的。
Why Starmer might need to bring back Blair
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-starmer-might-need-to-bring-back-blair/
BY TIM ROSS FEBRUARY 1, 2025
Britain’s prime minister is seemingly always overseas, and some allies wish he’d delegate more of the diplomatic grind — just as his predecessor did.
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has spent more time on foreign trips than any of his immediate predecessors.
A year after his historic election win in 1997, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair remarked that the first thing government officials did when he got the job was take away his passport.
“Seriously! Then they spend the rest of the time trying to take you traveling around the world,” he said.
And since becoming British prime minister last July, Keir Starmer has found himself in a very similar situation. Whisked up in the whirl of international diplomacy, he’s been juggling the U.K.’s commitments to Ukraine, seeking to reset relations with the EU and preparing for the return of U.S. President Donald Trump.
In fact, Starmer has spent more time on foreign trips than any of his immediate predecessors in their first six months in office, notching up 31 days in overseas travel. That tally has increased since the start of the new year, and Starmer is now set to join EU leaders for dinner in Brussels on Monday. Soon enough, Downing Street officials hope, he’ll also be on a plane to meet Trump in Washington.
Starmer’s clearly committed to the diplomatic part of the role, and with so many international threats weighing on Britain’s economy, it’s hard to argue he’s wrong. But the air miles come with a price tag of their own.
Politically, the prime minister risks being seen as an absentee, and has already been warned he’ll be accused of “fleeing” the country in the face of poor polling results. It’s an easy hit for opponents who want to portray him as out of touch, and it’s one that even the moribund Conservatives won’t miss.
Then there’s the opportunity cost. Travel takes up vast amounts of a leader’s limited time, and it’s tiring too.
There’s also the time consumed hosting world leaders at home in the U.K., who come to see Starmer for lunch in No.10 or — in the case of France’s Emmanuel Macron earlier this month — dinner at the prime minister’s official country retreat of Chequers.
But it’s not as if he doesn’t have other work to do.
Starmer was elected with a landslide in July on a promise to rebuild Britain after 14 years under the Conservatives. Years that saw the upheaval of Brexit, two referendums, five prime ministers, a pandemic, a war in Ukraine, rocketing immigration, a National Health Service on its knees, a self-inflicted market meltdown and rampant inflation.
Could former prime minister Tony Blair get a recall?
Upon entering Downing Street, however, the Labour team were surprised at just how much of the prime minister’s time was eaten up by diplomatic duties. Of course, this is partly because Starmer’s former chief of staff Sue Gray failed to prepare the new government for the realities of power. “There was no plan,” one government aide said.
But since Morgan McSweeney, the mastermind behind the party’s election victory, replaced Gray in October, he has instilled a missing sense of discipline at No. 10, shaping a clear strategic direction. With Starmer so focused on the multiplying foreign crises, McSweeney has decided to mostly stay in London. He rarely travels with the prime minister — though that’s also because the government has a habit of veering off-course when he’s out of the country.
Downing Street’s strategy for managing these competing pressures has also involved bolstering the prime minister’s team with old hands who know what they’re doing — especially on foreign affairs. For example, when McSweeney asked previous post-holders for their advice upon taking the job, he was so impressed with Blair’s right-hand man Jonathan Powell, he appointed him national security adviser.
Starmer also picked Peter Mandelson, the godfather of the Blair-era Labour Party’s electoral success, to be the next British ambassador to the U.S.
However, with such names from the Blair years back in Downing Street, one question stands out: Will the former prime minister himself get a recall? Surprisingly, the answer might not be “never.”
While Starmer feels the pull of his international responsibilities, at some point ahead of the next election, McSweeney will want his boss back on the campaign trail rather than strolling the red-carpeted tarmac of foreign airports.
One solution would be to hand over more of the diplomacy to the foreign secretary, or even add a “first secretary of state” position to the cabinet to lighten the load. There’s recent precedent for this: Ahead of the 2024 election, then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak brought back former Prime Minister David Cameron to take up the diplomatic burden, so that he could focus on campaigning.
Some in Starmer’s government regard this decision as a smart move on Sunak’s part, especially in an election year. (Some were even lobbying for Cameron to be the new ambassador to the U.S.) So, could they conceivably do the same with Blair when the time comes?
There are several reasons why not: For one, there’s a risk the still vigorous 71-year-old ex-leader could outshine the incumbent. Second, the two men don’t necessarily agree on all policy points.
Despite the wealth of Blair-era wisdom in Starmer’s team, McSweeney doesn’t regard the mission as a Blairite project. (And it’s safe to say that a niggling envy also persists, after Starmer didn’t quite beat Blair’s record-breaking 1997 majority in last year’s election).
Moreover, Blair remains a highly divisive figure, especially for his role in enabling former U.S. President George W. Bush’s invasion of Iraq in 2003. Giving him a foreign policy brief would be a red rag to many on Labour’s left and beyond.
However, Cameron’s legacy on foreign affairs — ushering in Brexit, most glaringly — was also painfully divisive. In the end, what made the difference for Sunak was the Tories’ dire state with an election on the horizon. He needed to be able to focus on domestic issues to avoid the complete wipeout of his party, which might have otherwise followed.
Starmer’s polling numbers and personal favorability ratings are already bad, with the far-right Reform UK now within touching distance of Labour in voting intention surveys. Of course, polling can be unreliable, and there’s a long way to go before the next election. Starmer himself recently indicated to POLITICO that he won’t call the vote before he has to in 2029.
Labour’s prospects would need to reach a true crisis point before Blair is ever invited back. But as the election draws closer, it would be foolish to think Starmer’s team would never be desperate enough to ask Labour’s most successful leader to hand over his passport one last time.
