John Hussman 股市正在反映導致1929年的極端情況

著名的基金經理說，隨著看漲的投資者將股票推向1929年極端，股票被準備成一個熊市

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-utlook-1929-bear-market-market-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-5

詹妮弗·索（Jennifer Sor），2024年5月7日

傳奇的投資者約翰·侯斯曼（John Hussman）說，股票市場看起來有望從其極端高度下降。
霍斯曼說，股市正在反映導致1929年墜機事故的極端情況。

他以前說，市場崩潰的幅度高達65％，這並不會讓他感到驚訝。

傳奇投資者約翰·侯賽曼（John Hussman）表示，股票市場的極端牛將要結束，因為過於樂觀的投資者將股票推向了近一個世紀的最高估值。

侯賽曼投資信托基金會主席本周對股票發出了另一條看跌警告，在2024年到目前為止，反對股票的實力。標準普爾500指數今年打破了一係列的紀錄高點，並且在近年來經曆了乏味的幾天之後，它恢複了勢頭。在四月份。

侯斯曼在一份報告中說，但是集會在很大程度上是由於投資者中“某種不耐煩和害怕錯過”的驅動 - 市場內部人士看上去“不利”。

他的公司對股票最值得信賴的估值措施，即非金融市值與公司總值的比率，表明標準普爾500指數的價格自1929年以來的最高水平，就在市場倒閉之前的最高水平，達到了89％的峰值。 -槽。

霍斯曼公司預計，根據其公司的內部指標，未來12年的標準普爾500指數將在未來12年內每年下跌9.3％。這是指標有史以來預測的最糟糕的12年表現 - 甚至比1929年的市場內部人士暗示，在接下來的12年中，標準普爾500指數的表現每年每年的債券低6％。

霍斯曼說：“從統計上講，目前的一組市場狀況看起來更像是'一個主要的牛市峰值，比過去一個世紀的其他任何點都可能是'一個主要的牛市峰值，但可能是1929年的山峰。” “這絲毫沒有保證，市場將會下降，也不能進一步發展。但是，考慮到極端估值，不利的市場內部設備以及其他數十個聚集在曆史上最“頂級”的因素的結合，我們的情況可以避開風險，甚至看跌的前景。”

霍斯曼（Hussman）是2000年和2008年市場崩潰的投資者之一，他避免對股票進行正式預測。盡管如此，他還是對未來股票的前景進行了極端看跌的語氣。

以前，他說股票看起來像是“美國財務曆史上最極端的投機性泡沫”，並補充說，撞車的撞車事故高達65％，這並不會讓他感到驚訝。

個人投資者也開始對股票進行酸味，因為它們權衡了超過預期的通貨膨脹，並撥回了今年美聯儲降低稅率的期望。根據AAII的最新投資者情緒調查，隻有39％的投資者表示，他們在未來6個月中看漲了股票。

Stocks are primed to tumble into a bear market as bullish investors have driven equities to 1929 extremes, famed fund manager says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-outlook-1929-bear-market-overvalued-john-hussman-2024-5

BY  Jennifer Sor  May 7, 2024

• The stock market looks poised to fall from its extreme heights, legendary investor John Hussman said. 
• Hussman said the stock market is mirroring the extremes leading up the 1929 crash. 
• A market crash as steep as 65% wouldn't surprise him, he's said previously. 

The stock market's extreme bull run is about to come to an end, as overly optimistic investors have driven equities to the most extreme valuations in nearly a century, according to legendary investor John Hussman.

 

The Hussman Investment Trust president sounded another bearish warning on stocks this week, pushing back against the strength in equities so far in 2024. The S&P 500 has broken a series of record highs this year, and has regained momentum in recent days after a lackluster month in April. 

But the rally has largely been driven by a "certain impatience and fear of missing out" among investors — and market internals are looking "unfavorable,", Hussman said in a note.

His firm's most trusted valuation measure for stocks, which is the ratio of nonfinancial market capitalization to corporate gross value-added, is showing that the S&P 500 is priced at its most extreme levels since 1929, right before the market collapsed 89% peak-to-trough.

Hussman's firm is expecting the S&P 500 to underperform Treasury bonds by 9.3% a year for the next 12 years, based on his firm's internal metrics. That's the worst 12-year performance the metric ever predicted — even worse than in 1929 when market internals suggested that the S&P 500 would underperform Treasury bonds by 6% annually over the following 12 years.

"Statistically, the current set of market conditions looks more 'like' a major bull market peak than any other point in the past century, with the possible exception of the 1929 peak," Hussman said. "That's no assurance that the market will plunge, nor that it can't advance further. Still, given the combination of extreme valuations, unfavorable market internals, and dozens of other factors that cluster among the most 'top-like' in history, we're just fine with a risk-averse, even bearish outlook."

Hussman, who was among the investors who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, has refrained from making an official forecast on stocks. Still, he's cast an extremely bearish tone on the outlook for equities going forward.

Previously, he said that stocks looked like they were in the "most extreme speculative bubble in US financial history," adding that a crash as steep as 65% wouldn't surprise him. 

Individual investors are also starting to sour on stocks as they weigh hotter-than-expected inflation and dial back their expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. Just 39% of investors said they were bullish on stocks over the next 6 months, according to the AAII's latest Investor Sentiment Survey.