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Peter Schiff：2024 年對美元來說可能是可怕的一年
2024 年 1 月 3 日 作者：希夫戈爾德
https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/2024-could-be-horrible-for-the-dollar/
彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 在年底發出了嚴厲警告：“2024 年對美元來說可能是可怕的一年。”
以下是彼得認為今年通脹可能進一步上升的三大原因。
1.美聯儲欲助推拜登連任
美聯儲深受政治動態的影響，隨著 2024 年總統選舉的臨近，它已經在采取行動與現任政治人物保持一致。
“我認為美聯儲將盡其所能，試圖讓拜登連任，或者如果拜登不當選，任何可能參選的人連任……美聯儲主席總是希望與執政的政府合作。”
這與公然的政治偏見關係不大，更多的是與自我保護有關。
總統在任命美聯儲主席方麵發揮著決定性作用。 鑒於此，傑羅姆·鮑威爾有動力優先考慮可能促進拜登連任的貨幣政策。 這正是我們所看到的。
美聯儲已宣布 2024 年至 2025 年大幅降低利率，戰略時機是為了今年的美國大選。
彼得預測，美聯儲將在本次選舉年結束前繼續實行溫和的通脹政策。
2.美國經濟“實力”依賴於通脹
人們所認為的美國經濟實力在很大程度上是虛幻的，是通脹政策而非真正的經濟增長造成的假象。
Peter 解釋說，2023 年較高的股市指數和其他金融指標反映了投資者對美聯儲通脹刺激措施的預期，而不是真正的經濟進展：
“投資者預計債券將大幅上漲。 這就是他們的想法。 美聯儲將回歸零或接近零的量化寬鬆政策。 因此，他們正在考慮所有這些因素。他們現在正在將這一寬鬆周期納入市場定價。 他們正在押注。”
美聯儲寧願保持寬鬆的貨幣政策，也不願毀掉對更廣泛經濟的押注並遭受股市大規模崩盤。 國會也寧願維持高預算，也不願冒失去連任的風險。
這一切都會推高通貨膨脹，彼得將其稱為“他們唯一的魔術”。
3.美國貿易逆差的貢獻
彼得將美元走軟與美國近期巨額貿易赤字聯係起來。 美元貶值將意味著大宗商品價格上漲，甚至貿易赤字增加，這反過來又會進一步削弱美元。
彼得解釋說：
在美元如此疲軟的環境下，通脹不可能下降，因為這確實會推高大宗商品價格。 這將推高我們的貿易赤字……這些巨額貿易赤字將給美元帶來沉重壓力。”
我們正在進入一個典型的場景，即貨幣貶值導致國內通脹。 貿易逆差不僅是經濟問題的表象，也是美元貶值的一個因素。
隻要美國繼續維持這些赤字，美元的壓力就會持續存在。
與此同時，投資者紛紛湧向瑞士法郎等其他避險資產。
2023 年，法郎大幅上漲 10%：
這對 2024 年的美元來說是一個非常負麵的信號，但對黃金來說是一個積極的信號，因為人們正在購買瑞士法郎作為避風港。 黃金是比瑞士法郎更安全的避風港，但瑞士法郎對美元升值如此之大的事實表明人們對美元持懷疑態度。”
經濟學家彼得·希夫警告“悲劇性結局”和美元崩潰——稱“清算日即將到來”
https://news.bitcoin.com/economist-peter-schiff-warns-of-tragic-ending-and-us-dollar-collapse-says-day-of-reckoning-is-at-hand/
經濟學家彼得·希夫警告說，美國經濟正走向悲慘結局。 “我們將麵臨美元危機和主權債務危機，”他強調，並警告美聯儲“將印鈔直至美元崩潰”。 他補充道：“我認為清算的日子即將到來。”
彼得希夫預見“悲劇結局”
經濟學家兼黃金迷彼得·希夫上周在接受第一電視台采訪時對美國經濟和美元發出了更可怕的警告。
希夫解釋說，我們目前正在經曆的通貨膨脹源於2008年的金融危機。 “政府為應對這場危機所做的事情——第一輪量化寬鬆、第二輪量化寬鬆、第三輪量化寬鬆——所有這些，再加上我們在新冠疫情期間所做的一切，就是所有通脹的根源。 隻要我們繼續維持巨額赤字，情況就會繼續變得更糟，”這位經濟學家解釋道。
他指出，美國的年度預算赤字約為 2 萬億美元，且國家債務持續增加，他警告說：
這將導致未來的通貨膨脹率比我們過去經曆的要高得多……我認為 2024 年通貨膨脹將成為比 2023 年更大的問題。
“利率是一個價格。 對於很多公司來說，這是一個重要的價格，就像勞動力、租金和原材料一樣，公司借錢來開展業務、進行資本投資和擴張。 許多這些公司多年來都承擔了債務，現在償還債務的成本急劇上升，”黃金迷繼續說道。
希夫還對美元崩潰發出警告。 “你已經可以看到世界正在試圖放棄美元。 人們正在大力尋找美元的替代品。 它們就在那裏，而且這種情況正在發生，”他強調道，並預測道：“隨著我們的貿易夥伴放棄使用美元，美元將會快速貶值。 價格上漲的速度將比以往快得多，到了某個時候，就會失控。”
經濟學家得出結論：
不幸的是，這個故事將會有一個悲慘的結局。 我們將麵臨美元危機和主權債務危機。 美聯儲將印鈔直至美元崩潰。
“我認為清算的日子即將到來。 我不知道是明天，但很快就會到來，”他澄清道。
上周，希夫同樣警告稱，一場大規模危機和人們急於退出美元。 他多次警告稱，美元崩盤是不可避免的。 7月，他建議所有人立即退出美元，並強調美聯儲對其衰退前景的看法是錯誤的。 上個月，他表示，在美聯儲達到通脹目標之前，美國經濟將經曆一場“全麵的金融危機”。
您如何看待經濟學家彼得·希夫的警告？ 請在下麵的評論部分告訴我們。
這個故事中的標簽
經濟, 經濟, 金融危機, 彼得·希夫, 美元崩潰
Peter Schiff 人們需要醒來：經濟衰退、通貨膨脹和美元崩潰
https://www.google.com/search?q=Wall+Street+tycoon%2C+Schiff%3A+currency+crisis%2C+dollar+asset+collapse&oq=
迷失彼得·希夫秀播客 2022 年 8 月 17 日
夏末的陽光可能會帶來一點輕微的緩解，但壞消息似乎永遠不會太遙遠。 隨著一個看起來相當黯淡的冬天即將到來，人們對我們所看到的不斷加劇的通貨膨脹的後果感到擔憂，這是可以理解的，這就是為什麽我快速追蹤今天的客人回到倫敦皇家隊的熱門席位。
彼得·希夫 (Peter Schiff) 是一位經濟學家、作家、金融評論員以及彼得·希夫秀播客的主持人。 他準確的預測使他成為經濟問題上最受歡迎的評論員之一。
上次彼得和我一起參加節目時，我們討論了冠狀病毒大流行的潛在災難性後果，以及它將如何導致前所未有的經濟衰退，從而導致惡性通貨膨脹以及食品成本增長速度快於股票價格的世界！
唉，我們到了。
隨著政府支出繼續推動這一敘事，我們看到了前所未有的通貨膨脹和生活成本危機，這讓許多人陷入絕望。 彼得最近幾個月一直在告訴所有聽眾，事實上，我們已經陷入了經濟衰退，一場比他在 2008 年正確預測的更嚴重的金融危機很可能發生。
彼得認為美聯儲已經向經濟注入大量資金。 印鈔，或者巧妙地提到的量化寬鬆，增加了需求，同時減少了供應。 對於彼得來說，這就是為什麽你會看到我的巨大增長
目前的消費者價格。
“印鈔隻是另一種形式的稅收。 政府不是搶奪公民的錢，而是搶奪他們的錢的購買力。”
Peter 的職業生涯始於 90 年代初的 Shearson Lehman Brothers，之後他與他人共同創立了 Euro Pacific Capital，並繼續擔任首席執行官兼首席全球策略師。 歐洲太平洋資本的投資策略側重於在美元貶值的情況下進行長期財富儲蓄，重點關注新興市場和以大宗商品為重點的投資。
除此之外，Peter 於 2010 年創立了 SchiffGold 並擔任名譽董事長，他長期以來一直認為投資者應該將其投資組合的 10-20% 配置為貴金屬，作為在世界經濟崩潰的情況下最安全的對衝手段。 事實上，彼得已經成為購買黃金大軍中最響亮的聲音之一，結合這種投資理念，他成為加密貨幣最直言不諱的批評者之一，這可能並不奇怪。
然而，早在 2006 年，彼得就真正成為了頭條新聞，因為他是主流網絡上極少數正確預測 2008 年金融危機的經濟預測者之一。 他對貨幣、經濟理論和國際投資的專業知識和深入理解使他成為《華爾街日報》、《紐約時報》、CNBC、CNN 和福克斯新聞等世界各地媒體的首選分析師。
他曾涉足政治舞台，首先擔任羅恩·保羅 (Ron Paul) 2008 年總統競選活動的經濟顧問，後來於 2010 年作為共和黨人競選康涅狄格州的美國參議院議員，他的自由主義傾向為變革提供了理由。
作為一名作家，彼得寫了五本暢銷書，包括《警鍾警鍾：如何從即將到來的經濟崩潰中獲利》，而他的播客“彼得希夫秀”每天提供與金錢相關的一切最新信息，從投資到政府政策。
這次采訪可能是我一段時間以來錄製的最重要的采訪之一，因為其中包含的警告將幫助大家更好地理解為什麽一個如此嚴重依賴美元的世界正處於經濟混亂的邊緣 。
彼得是一個很棒的人，盡管經常存在一些分歧的觀點，但他的正確遠遠多於錯誤。 他著眼於更廣闊的前景，並對自己的工作充滿熱情。 對他來說，我們正在夢遊，走向另一場災難，一場可能無法很快逆轉的災難，但是，有一些方法可以避免這種結果，我們肯定會在今天的節目中探討這些方法。
在過去的 11 年裏，我孜孜不倦地工作，以確保倫敦皇家銀行能夠維護其創建時所秉持的價值觀。 我們熱切地關心言論自由、獨立廣播的力量和需求，最重要的是為您服務，這個社區始終與我們同甘共苦。
隨著我們的不斷發展，我們希望確保您有機會分得一杯羹，從而確保我們保持您喜歡的客人的水準，從世界上最偉大的思想家到金融奇才、哲學家和影響者。 現在還有時間成為我們未來的一部分，所以現在就在invest.londonreal.tv 上注冊並永遠擁有倫敦皇家銀行的一部分。
Peter Schiff: 2024 Could Be Horrible For the Dollar
Here are 3 big reasons why Peter thinks inflation might rise even higher this year.
1. The Fed wants to boost Biden’s reelection
The Fed is deeply influenced by political dynamics and, with the 2024 presidential election around the corner, it’s already maneuvering to align with the political incumbent.
“I think that the Fed is going to be doing everything it can to try to reelect Biden or whoever may run if Biden does not… The Fed chairman always wants to play ball with whichever Administration is in power.”
This has less to do with blatant political bias and more to do with self-preservation.
The President plays a decisive role in appointing the Fed chair. Given this, Jerome Powell is incentivized to prioritize monetary policies that could boost a Biden reelection. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing.
The Fed already announced considerably lower interest rates in 2024 through 2025, strategically timed for this year’s US election.
Peter predicts that the Fed will continue its dovish, inflationary policies through the end of this election year.
2. US Economic “Strength” Rides on Inflation
The perceived strength of the US economy is largely illusory, a facade created by inflationary policies rather than genuine economic growth.
Peter explains that higher stock market indexes and other financial indicators in 2023 reflect investor expectations of inflationary Fed stimulus rather than genuine economic progress:
“Investors are anticipating a big bond rally. That’s what they think. The Fed is going to going to go back to zero or close to it back to quantitative easing. And so they’re factoring all this in. They’re pricing this easing cycle into the markets now. They’re betting on it.”
Rather than ruin the bets of the broader economy and suffer a massive stock market collapse, the Fed would rather keep monetary policy loose. Congress, too, would prefer to maintain high budgets than risk losing reelection.
This all drives up inflation, which Peter dubs as “the only magic trick they have.”
3. U.S. Trade Deficits Contribute
Peter links the dollar’s weakening to recent large U.S. trade deficits. A cheap dollar will mean higher commodity prices and even higher trade deficits, which in turn will undermine the dollar further.
Peter explains:
There’s no way that inflation is going to come down in an environment where the dollar is that weak, because that’s going to really push up commodity prices. That’s going to push up our trade deficit… These big trade deficits are going to weigh heavily on the dollar.”
We’re entering a classic scenario where a depreciating currency contributes to domestic inflation. Trade deficits are not just a symptom of economic issues but also a causative factor in the declining value of the dollar.
As long as the U.S. continues to run these deficits, the pressure on the dollar will persist.
Meanwhile, investors are flocking to other safe haven assets, like the Swiss Franc.
In 2023, the Franc was up a whopping 10%:
That is a very negative sign for the dollar for 2024 and a positive sign for gold because people are buying the Swiss frank as a safe haven. Gold is an even safer haven than the Swiss franc, but the fact that the Swiss franc is gaining so much on the dollar is an indication that people are leery of the dollar.”
Economist Peter Schiff Warns of 'Tragic Ending' and US Dollar Collapse — Says 'Day of Reckoning Is at Hand'
Economist Peter Schiff has warned that the U.S. economy is headed for a tragic ending. “We're going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis,” he stressed, cautioning that the Federal Reserve is “going to print money until the dollar collapses.” He added: “I think that day of reckoning is at hand.”
Peter Schiff Foresees 'Tragic Ending'
Economist and gold bug Peter Schiff issued more dire warnings about the U.S. economy and the U.S. dollar in an interview on First TV last week.
Schiff explained that the current inflation we are experiencing has its origin in the 2008 financial crisis. “What the government did in response to that crisis — QE1, QE2, QE3 — all of that, plus what we did during Covid, that is the source of all this inflation. And it’s going to continue to get worse as long as we continue to run these massive deficits,” the economist explained.
Noting that the U.S. is running annual budget deficits of around $2 trillion and its national debt continues to increase, he cautioned:
This is going to lead to much higher inflation in the future than what we’ve experienced in the past … I think inflation is going to be a much bigger problem in 2024 than it was in 2023.
“Interest rates are a price. And it’s an important price for a lot of companies, just like labor, and rent, and raw materials, companies borrow money to conduct their business, to make capital investments, to expand. A lot of these companies have taken up debt over the years and now the cost of servicing that debt has risen sharply,” the gold bug continued.
Schiff also warned about the collapse of the USD. “You can already see the world is trying to divest itself of the dollar. There’s a big movement to look for alternatives to the U.S. dollar. They’re there and that’s happening,” he emphasized, predicting: “As our trading partners move away from the dollar, the dollar is going to fall very fast. Prices are going to rise much faster than they have been and at some point, it’s going to spiral out of control.”
The economist concluded:
The story is going to have a tragic ending, unfortunately. We’re going to have a dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis. The Fed is going to print money until the dollar collapses.
“I think that day of reckoning is at hand. I don’t know that it’s tomorrow, but it’s coming sometime soon,” he clarified.
Last week, Schiff similarly warned about a massive crisis and a rush to get out of the U.S. dollar. He has repeatedly cautioned that a U.S. dollar collapse is inevitable. In July, he advised everyone to get out of the dollar now, emphasizing that the Federal Reserve is wrong about its recession outlook. Last month, he said the U.S. economy will experience a “full-blown financial crisis” before the Fed reaches its inflation target.
What do you think about the warning by economist Peter Schiff? Let us know in the comments section below.
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Lost of the Peter Schiff Show Podcast
The sun might be shining as late summer provides a small dose of light relief, but the bad news never seems too far away these days. With a rather bleak looking winter on the horizon, people are understandably concerned about the ramifications of the ever increasing inflation we’re seeing, which is why I’ve fast tracked today’s guest back into the London Real hotseat.
Peter Schiff is an economist, author, financial commentator, and host of The Peter Schiff Show podcast. His accurate forecasts have made him one of the most sought-after commentators when it comes to matters of the economy.
The last time Peter joined me on the show we discussed the potentially catastrophic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic and how it would cause an unparalleled economic downturn that will result in hyperinflation and a world where the cost of food increases faster than the price of stocks!
Alas, here we are.
As government spending continues to drive the narrative we are seeing unprecedented inflation and a cost of living crisis that is driving many to despair. Peter has spent recent months telling all who listen, that in actual fact, we are already deep into a recession and a financial crisis far worse than the one he correctly predicted in 2008, is very much on the cards.
Peter argues the Federal Reserve has flooded the economy with money. Money printing, or quantitative easing as it’s subtly referred to, has increased demand while decreasing supply. For Peter, that is why you’re seeing this huge increase in consumer prices right now.
“Printing money is merely taxation in another form. Rather than robbing citizens of their money, a government robs their money of its purchasing power.”
Peter’s career began at Shearson Lehman Brothers in the early 90s, before he co-founded Euro Pacific Capital where he continues to serve as CEO and Chief Global Strategist. Euro Pacific Capital’s investment strategy focuses on long-term wealth savings in the face of a declining US dollar with an emphasis on emerging market and commodity-focused investments.
Alongside this, Peter started SchiffGold in 2010 and serves as Honorary Chairman, having long reasoned that investors should allocate 10-20% of their portfolios to precious physical metals, as the safest hedge amid a collapsing world economy. In fact, Peter has become one of the loudest voices in the buy gold brigade, and it’ll perhaps be little surprise to many that in conjunction with this investment philosophy he is one of cryptocurrency’s most outspoken critics.
It was back in 2006 however, that Peter really made the headlines after being one of the very few economic forecasters on the mainstream networks to correctly predict the 2008 financial crisis. His expertise and sound understanding of money, economic theory, and international investing make him the go-to analyst on media outlets around the world from The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, to CNBC, CNN, and Fox News.
He has spent time in the political arena, first serving as an economic advisor for Ron Paul’s 2008 presidential campaign and later running for the United States Senate in Connecticut in 2010, as a Republican, where his libertarian leanings made a case for change.
As an author, Peter has penned five bestselling books including the searing wake-up call Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse, while his podcast The Peter Schiff Show gives daily updates on everything money related, from investments to government policy.
This interview might be one of the most important I’ve recorded for a while, as the warnings it contains will help all of you to better understand exactly why a world that relies so heavily on the US dollar, is on the brink of economic chaos.
Peter is a fantastic guy, who despite some often divisive opinions is right far more than he’s wrong. He looks at the wider picture and is passionate about his work. For him, we are sleepwalking our way to another disaster, one that probably can’t be reversed anytime soon, however, there are ways to hedge against such outcomes and we’ll certainly explore those in today’s episode.
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