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傑弗裏·薩克斯：美國的體係出了問題。 而在人性中
這位著名經濟學家與《國家報》談論氣候變化的風險、可持續發展的重要性以及為什麽歐洲應該關注非洲的教育而不是烏克蘭的戰爭
傑弗裏·薩克斯 (Jeffrey Sachs) 於 2022 年 6 月 13 日在馬德裏。
伯納岡薩雷斯港 2022 年 6 月 22 日
傑弗裏·薩克斯 (Jeffrey Sachs) 因其關於貧困和全球化的書籍而成為世界上最受歡迎的經濟學家之一，這些書籍基於他在哥倫比亞大學的研究以及他為聯合國提供的有關如何應對氣候變化和實現可持續發展的谘詢工作。 這位 67 歲的老人最近在氣溫飆升至 41°C（105°F）的馬德裏，正是為了談論這個問題：我們在應對全球變暖方麵是如何落後的。 他說，我們不應該關注烏克蘭戰爭，而應該解決真正的優先事項。 在西班牙首都，他參加了西班牙可持續發展網絡組織的活動。
問題。 您在熱浪中來到馬德裏，直接感受到酷熱。 你感覺如何？
回答。 是的，天氣很熱，但在某些地方，它是致命的。 今年春天，印度部分地區有 50 攝氏度的天氣。 這也是人類活動已經使地球變暖程度的一個跡象。 我們知道，現在地球的平均溫度比過去一萬年中的任何時候都要溫暖。 我們知道，我們即將超過我們在巴黎同意的 1.5 度限製。 我們正走在一條極其危險的道路上。 現在的優勢是對於該做什麽有科學的明確性。 我們必須在本世紀中葉之前快速實現能源係統脫碳。 第二個好消息是，實現這一點的技術成本已經下降了 100 倍。 因此，做我們需要做的事情實際上是完全合理的。 所以人類的問題是，我們是否完全理性？
問：我們會嗎？
答：這就是鬥爭：我們的理性。 氣候變暖有可能摧毀熱帶雨林，雨林已接近臨界點。 許多物種正走向邊緣或滅絕。 許多生態係統正在崩潰。 所以這並不是我們在外麵行走時感覺有多熱。 這正在改變地球的整體運作方式。 所謂的海洋環流正在減慢。 存在如此多的風險和臨界點。 北極海冰的融化意味著地球不再從冰反射陽光，而是將陽光吸收到海洋中。 永久凍土的融化是另一個臨界點，因為它可能釋放出儲存在冰下的大量甲烷和二氧化碳。 在很短的時間內，我們正在以一種我們自己都沒有意識到的方式改變著這個星球。 當哥倫比亞大學的科學家每天告訴你：‘這比我們想象的更糟糕，薩克斯先生。 速度越來越快，很危險！” 這足以讓你精神崩潰。
我們已做好戰鬥準備，但發現合作極其困難
問：幾年前，您曾說過實現可持續發展目標（SDG）相當於肯尼迪時代征服月球。 但我們還沒有到達那個月球。
答：最大的挑戰是讓我們的頭腦足夠清晰，能夠做正確的事情。 我們並不缺乏解決方案。 我們並不缺乏這個需要。 我們甚至不缺乏基本的價值觀。 但我們總是分心並陷入最糟糕的衝動。 現在是歐洲戰爭。 這是多麽悲劇和浪費時間啊！ 我們本可以與俄羅斯談判並避免這場戰爭。 但我們彼此之間的溝通太糟糕了，現在這是毀滅性的。 如此多的人死亡、如此多的破壞、如此多的移民、如此多的金錢浪費。 我的政府剛剛投票決定向烏克蘭提供 400 億美元的緊急援助。 如果我曾經說過為可持續發展投入 400 億美元，我就會被華盛頓嘲笑。 “薩克斯先生，我們怎麽能浪費這筆錢呢？”但是為了戰爭，他們就這麽做了。 這就是混亂。 這是一種原始思維。
問：您真的認為戰爭本可以避免嗎？
答：絕對可以。 北約不斷向東擴張，特別是進入高度敏感的黑海地區。 [時任聯合國秘書長]科菲·安南在 2000 年請我就可持續發展目標向聯合國提供建議。 但隨後 9/11 事件發生，美國表示現在我們將發動一場全球反恐戰爭。 那一刻我想：“這太愚蠢了。”我們真的必須入侵阿富汗嗎？ 伊拉克？ 推翻敘利亞政權？ 利比亞？ 這真的是個好主意嗎？ 嗯，他們做到了這一切。 在經曆了所有這些戰鬥之後，美國在這些戰爭中浪費了數萬億美元，千年發展目標（聯合國在 2015 年製定的國際發展目標）在哪裏？ 好吧，千年發展目標被拋在了後麵。
問：所以總是有借口避免采取行動。
A. 智力有問題
美國的政治製度。 在我們的人性中。 我們已做好戰鬥準備，但發現合作極其困難。 我們準備好在戰鬥中投入武器和生命。 但對和平與發展的投資卻備受爭議。 這沒有道理。 但事實就是這樣。
問：資本主義失敗了嗎？
答：資本主義有很多不同的含義。 這是一個包含社會民主主義和純粹市場資本主義的大術語。 這尤其失敗了很多次，因為它導致了許多社會不平等和環境危機。 市場不僅沒有解決這些問題，反而加劇了這些問題。 但像蘇聯那樣取消市場是一場災難。 所以我們正在尋找的是混合的東西。 這是一個擁有市場、政府、公民社會和一套明確道德規範的經濟體。 而且它應該是環境可持續的。 社會民主主義比盎格魯-撒克遜市場模式運作得更好。
問：無論如何，我們已經看到全球市場比政府更強大。
答：嗯，這裏麵還有很多複雜的事情。 很長一段時間，我們在所謂的西方世界爭論這個問題，現在我們麵臨著更多的模式。 中國思考這些問題的方式確實很不一樣。 撒哈拉以南非洲麵臨著一係列完全不同的挑戰，也是殖民時代的長期遺產，導致非洲大陸的大部分地區甚至沒有基本的基礎設施和教育。 在一個相互聯係的世界中，我們需要大量的全球合作，以確保地球上的每個地區都找到自己的位置、角色和通往體麵生活的道路。 這是我幾十年來一直致力於的事情。 世界上沒有任何一個地方不擔心這一係列問題。 但不幸的是，“我們與他們”的心態深深植根於我們的政治和心靈中，以至於人們對全球合作的想法抱有很大的懷疑。
問：如果我們無法實現可持續發展目標，25 年後世界會是什麽樣子？
答：風險有很多種，你無法預測危險會如何顯現。 在撒哈拉以南非洲，貧困極其嚴重，氣候變化極其危險，同時人口增長速度非常快。 當非洲有 30 億人生活在極其不穩定的環境中，而歐盟的人口還不到 5 億時，這對歐洲意味著什麽？ 我們需要提前思考，這樣我們就不必最終回答這個問題。 我們應該在今天、現在就進行投資。 歐盟的首要任務不應該是烏克蘭戰爭，這應該在談判桌上解決，不是通過增加軍事預算，而是通過確保非洲每個孩子現在都能上學。 它的成本並不高，但卻會改變世界的未來。 如果孩子們都能上學，非洲就會有經濟，就會有就業機會。 這是現在最重要的事情。
Jeffrey Sachs: Something is wrong with the American system. And in human nature
The renowned economist talks to EL PAÍS about the risks of climate change, the importance of sustainable development and why Europe should focus on education in Africa, not the war in Ukraine
Jeffrey Sachs in Madrid, on June 13， .
Jeffrey Sachs is one of the most popular economists in the world for his books on poverty and globalization, which are based on his research at Columbia University and his advisory work for the United Nations on how to combat climate change and achieve sustainable development. The 67-year-old was recently in Madrid, where the temperature had soared to 41ºC (105ºF), precisely to talk about this issue: how we are lagging in the fight against global warming. Instead of focusing on the war in Ukraine, he says, we should address the real priorities. In the Spanish capital, he took part in an event organized by the Spanish Network for Sustainable Development.
Question. You have come to Madrid in the middle of a heatwave and are experiencing extreme heat directly. How do you feel?
Answer. It’s hot, yes, but in some places, it’s deadly. There were 50ºC days in parts of India this spring. It’s also a sign of how much human activity has already warmed the planet. We know that on average Earth is warmer now than at any time in the past 10,000 years. We know that we are about to exceed the 1.5-degree limit that we agreed to in Paris. We’re on an extremely dangerous path. The advantage now is there is scientific clarity about what to do. We have to decarbonize the energy system fast by mid-century. And the second piece of good news is that the technology to do that has come down in cost 100-fold. So it’s actually perfectly reasonable to do what we need to do. So the question for humanity is, are we perfectly reasonable or not?
Q. And will we be?
A. That is the struggle: our rationality. Warming threatens to destroy the rainforest, which is close to a tipping point. Many species are going to the edge or to extinction. Many ecosystems are collapsing. So this isn’t how hot we feel walking outside. This is changing the way the Earth in its entirety is working. The so-called ocean circulation is slowing down. There are so many risks and tipping points. The melting of the sea ice in the Arctic means that the planet rather than reflecting sunshine from the ice, absorbs the sunshine into the ocean. The melting of the permafrost is another tipping point because it could release huge amounts of methane and carbon dioxide that were stored under the ice. In a short period of time, we’re changing the planet in ways that we don’t even recognize. When scientists are telling you every day at Columbia University: ‘This is worse than we thought, Mr. Sachs. It’s accelerating, it’s dangerous!” It’s enough to make you a nervous wreck.
We’re ready to fight, but find it extremely hard to cooperate
Q. A few years ago you said that meeting the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was the equivalent of conquering the Moon in the Kennedy era. But we are not reaching that moon.
A. The greatest challenge is having our minds clear enough to do the right thing. We don’t lack the solutions. We don’t lack the need. We don’t even lack the basic values. But we are so constantly distracted and falling into our worst impulses. Now it’s war in Europe. What a tragedy and a waste of time! We could have negotiated with Russia and avoided this war. But we’re so bad at speaking with each other and now it’s devastating. So many people dying, so much destruction, so much migration, so much waste of money. My government just voted for $40 billion of emergency aid for Ukraine. If I had ever said $40 billion for sustainable development, I would have been laughed out of Washington. ‘How could we waste that money, Mr. Sachs?’ But for war, they do it. This is the confusion. It’s a kind of primitive thinking.
Q. Do you really think the war could have been avoided?
A. Absolutely. NATO kept enlarging to the east and especially into the highly sensitive Black Sea region. [Then UN Secretary General] Kofi Annan asked me in 2000 to advise the UN on the SDGs. But then 9/11 came and the US said now we’re going to have a global war on terror. I thought at that moment: ‘This is stupid.’ Do we really have to invade Afghanistan? Iraq? Topple the Syrian regime? Libya? Is this really a good idea? Well, they did all that. And where were the Millennium Development Goals [international development goals established by the UN for the year 2015] after all that fighting, all of those trillions of dollars that the United States wasted on these wars? Well, the Millennium Development Goals were left behind.
Q. So there’s always an excuse to avoid taking action.
A. There is something wrong with the American political system. And in our human nature. We’re ready to fight, but find it extremely hard to cooperate. We’re ready to throw weapons and lives in a fight. But investment in peace and development is highly controversial. It doesn’t make sense. But that’s the way it is.
Q. Has capitalism failed?
A. Capitalism means a lot of different things. It’s a big term that includes social democracy and pure market capitalism. This in particular has failed many times, because it leads to so many social inequalities and environmental crises. Not only does the market not address these problems, it exacerbates them. But removing the market as the Soviet Union did is a disaster. So what we’re looking for is something that is mixed. That is an economy that has markets, government, civil society and a set of clear ethics. And it should be environmentally sustainable. Social democracy works much better than the Anglo-Saxon market model.
Q. In any case, we have seen that global markets are more powerful than governments.
A. Well, there are many more complications in that. For a long time, we debated this within the so-called Western world and now we are confronting a lot more models. The way China thinks about these issues is really quite different. Sub-Saharan Africa is a whole different set of challenges, and a long legacy of the colonial era which left so much of the continent without even the basics of infrastructure and education. In an interconnected world, we need a tremendous amount of global cooperation in order to be able to ensure that every region of this planet finds its place, its role and its path to a decent life. It’s what I’ve worked on for decades. There’s not any part of the world that isn’t worrying about this set of issues. But unfortunately, the “us versus them” mentality is so deeply built into our politics and our psyches, that the idea of global cooperation is viewed with a lot of suspicion.
Q. If we fail to meet the SDGs, what will the world look like in 25 years?
A. There are many kinds of risks and you can’t predict how the danger will manifest. In sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is extreme, climate change is extraordinarily dangerous and at the same time, the population is rising very fast. What is it going to mean for Europe when there are three billion people in Africa living in hugely unstable conditions and in the European Union, fewer than 500 million people? We need to be thinking ahead so that we don’t have to answer that question in the end. We should be investing today, right now. The EU’s highest priority should not be the war in Ukraine, which should be settled at the negotiating table, not by increasing the military budget, but by ensuring that every child in Africa is in school right now. It doesn’t cost very much, but it would change the future of the world. If the children are in school, there’s going to be an economy in Africa, there’s going to be jobs. That’s the most important thing right now.
