美國正在推動德國的去工業化

美國正在推動德國的去工業化

https://unherd.com/newsroom/america-is-fuelling-germanys-deindusTrialization/

作者：菲利普·皮爾金頓 2024 年 2 月 12 日

歐洲即將脫離美國嗎？ 圖片來源：蓋蒂

秘密已經泄露了。 經過幾個月的否認，現在人們普遍認為，由於俄羅斯廉價管道天然氣的終結，德國乃至整個歐洲都麵臨著去工業化。 彭博社的頭條新聞寫道：“德國作為工業超級大國的時代即將結束。”

在德國，每個人都在互相指責。 德國主要行業協會主席齊格弗裏德·魯斯沃姆 (Siegfried Russwurm) 向英國《金融時報》表示，德國的氣候議程“比我所知道的任何其他國家都更加教條”。 這個話題開始在美國廣泛流傳，並通過社交媒體上的右翼評論員傳播到歐洲。 但這是一種幹擾——美國人越來越精明地利用文化戰爭問題來掩蓋對其歐洲盟友的疏忽。

事實上，美國告訴德國和歐洲其他國家，他們將能夠用廉價的俄羅斯天然氣替代美國液化天然氣（LNG）。 雖然液化天然氣的銷售價格將比俄羅斯管道天然氣高出 40%，但歐洲人確信，隨著該行業投資的增加，成本將會下降。

這始終是一個幻想。 但雪上加霜的是，一月下旬，總統喬·拜登暫停了新的液化天然氣出口項目，以安撫民主黨內的環保活動人士。 如果德國人認為外交政策和對核心盟友的支持對美國政客來說比無聊的政黨政治更重要，那麽他們現在正在從華盛頓的運作方式中吸取慘痛的教訓。

如果唐納德·特朗普當選，他無疑將推翻這一命令。 但當他這樣做時，這些項目已經落後了一年。 無論如何，即使是巨額投資也不可能使液化天然氣比管道天然氣更具競爭力。 液化天然氣必須經過一個昂貴的過程，被壓縮成液化狀態，然後在船上運輸，並且總是比簡單地通過管道泵送天然氣貴得多。

從倫敦到柏林，西方政府都沒有認真的經濟增長計劃。 媒體已經開始承認這個嚴峻的現實，因為否認它已經沒有任何意義了。

私下裏，美國人聳聳肩，暗示這意味著他們將不再麵臨來自歐洲的競爭。 但眼睜睜地看著你最可靠的盟友——更不用說一個關鍵貿易夥伴——的經濟崩潰並不是憤世嫉俗的馬基雅維利治國之道：這是愚蠢的。 美國領導人談論建立一個隻包括“民主”國家的新經濟集團，卻忽視了歐洲經濟的破壞。 除了最忠實的信徒之外，每個人都顯而易見：美國也沒有戰略。

德國的危機正在導致選舉政治的徹底變革。 右翼德國另類選擇黨對停止購買廉價俄羅斯天然氣的決定極為批評，目前在民意調查中以 20% 左右的得票率排名第二。 新成立的 Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht 從左翼角度對這一決定持批評態度，其民調已經達到 8% 左右。

美國對其核心盟友的忽視可能會在未來幾年導致整個非洲大陸的選舉震動。 歐洲很有可能擺脫美國的影響，開始與其他國家建立務實關係。 最大的問題是英國與美國的關係比歐洲大陸其他國家更密切。 這是英國領導人在前進過程中必須認真問自己的一個問題。

菲利普·皮爾金頓（Philip Pilkington）是一位宏觀經濟學家和投資專業人士，也是《經濟學改革》一書的作者

America is driving Germany's deindustrialisation

https://unherd.com/newsroom/america-is-fuelling-germanys-deindustrialisation/

By Philip Pilkington  February 12, 2024 

Is Europe set to break from America? Credit: Getty

The cat is out of the bag. After months of denial, it is now conventional wisdom that Germany — and Europe more generally — faces deindustrialisation due to the end of cheap Russian piped gas. “Germany’s Days as an Industrial Superpower Are Coming to an End,” reads a headline on Bloomberg.

In Germany everyone is pointing fingers. The nation’s climate agenda is “more dogmatic than any other country I know,” Siegfried Russwurm, head of Germany’s main industry association, told the Financial Times. This talking point has started circulating widely in America and has spread to Europe via Right-wing commentators on social media. But it is a distraction — the Americans are becoming increasingly savvy at using culture-war issues to cover up negligence towards their European allies.

Really, the US told Germany and the rest of Europe that they would be able to substitute cheap Russian gas for American liquefied natural gas (LNG). While LNG would start out selling at a 40% premium to Russian piped gas, the Europeans were assured that costs would come down as investment in the sector increased.

 

This was always a fantasy. But to add insult to injury, in late January President Joe Biden paused new LNG export projects to appease green activists within the Democratic Party. If the Germans thought that foreign policy and support for core allies is more important to American politicians than frivolous party politics, they are now learning a hard lesson about how Washington operates.

If he is elected, Donald Trump will doubtless reverse this order. But by the time he does, the projects will already have fallen a year behind. Regardless, there is no chance that even enormous amounts of investment can render LNG more competitive than piped gas. LNG must undergo an expensive process of being compressed into a liquefied state and then transported on ships, and will always be substantially more expensive than simply pumping gas through a pipeline.

From London to Berlin, Western governments do not have a serious economic growth plan. Media outlets have started to admit this grim reality because there is no longer any point in denying it. 

Privately, Americans shrug their shoulders and hint that this means they will no longer face competition from Europe. But watching the economy of your most dependable ally — not to mention a key trade partner — implode is not cynical Machiavellian statecraft: it is folly. American leaders talk about creating a new economic bloc which only includes “democratic” nations, only to dismiss the destruction of the European economy. It is obvious to everyone except the truest of the true believers: America has no strategy either.

The crisis in Germany is leading to a radical shakeup in electoral politics. The Right-wing Alternative für Deutschland has been extremely critical of the decision to stop buying cheap Russian gas and is currently second in the polls with around 20% of the vote. The newly launched Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, which is critical of the decision from a Left-wing perspective, is already polling at around 8%.

America’s negligence of its core ally will likely lead to electoral tremors across the continent in the coming years. There is every chance that Europe will drift away from American influence and start to build pragmatic relationships with other countries. The big question is where this leaves Britain, which has much closer ties with the United States than the rest of the continent. It is a question that British leaders will have to ask themselves seriously moving forward.

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Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics