風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
德國從令世界羨慕的國家變成了表現最差的主要發達經濟體。 發生了什麽？
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/once-global-ideal-germanys-economy-062845919.html
大衛·麥克休 2023 年 9 月 19 日
德國埃森（美聯社）——在本世紀的大部分時間裏，德國取得了一個又一個的經濟成功，主導了豪華汽車和工業機械等高端產品的全球市場，向世界其他地區銷售了大量產品，占經濟總量的一半 依靠出口。
就業機會充足，隨著其他歐洲國家陷入債務困境，政府的財政收入也隨之增長，有關其他國家可以向德國學習的書籍也層出不窮。
不再。 現在，德國是全球表現最差的主要發達經濟體，國際貨幣基金組織和歐盟都預計德國今年將萎縮。
此前，俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭並失去莫斯科廉價天然氣，這對長期以來歐洲製造業強國德國的能源密集型產業造成了前所未有的衝擊。
歐洲最大經濟體的突然表現不佳引發了一波批評、絕望和關於未來發展方向的爭論。
德國大型化學公司贏創工業公司首席執行官克裏斯蒂安·庫爾曼表示，德國麵臨著“去工業化”的風險，因為高能源成本和政府對其他長期問題的不作為可能會將新工廠和高薪工作崗位轉移到其他地方。
庫爾曼在位於德國西部小鎮埃森 21 層的辦公室裏指出了曆史悠久的魯爾河穀工業區早期成功的象征：金屬工廠的煙囪、現已關閉的煤礦產生的巨大廢物堆、大量的 BP 石油。 煉油廠和贏創龐大的化學生產設施。
如今，這個曾經的礦區已成為能源轉型的象征，這裏的煤塵曾經使懸掛的衣物變黑，點綴著風力渦輪機和綠地。
庫爾曼告訴美聯社，工廠供電所需的廉價俄羅斯天然氣的損失“痛苦地損害了德國經濟的商業模式”。 “我們正處於受到外部因素強烈影響和損害的境地。”
俄羅斯切斷了對歐盟的大部分天然氣供應，引發了這個 27 個國家集團的能源危機，而該集團的 40% 燃料都來自莫斯科。德國政府要求贏創繼續其 1960 年代的燃煤電廠繼續運行。 又長了幾個月。
該公司正在從該工廠（其 40 層煙囪為塑料和其他產品的生產提供燃料）轉向兩台燃氣發電機，這些發電機隨後可以使用氫氣運行，計劃到 2030 年實現碳中和。
一個備受爭議的解決方案是：由政府資助設定工業電價上限，以推動經濟實現可再生能源轉型。
綠黨副總理羅伯特·哈貝克的提議遭到了社會民主黨總理奧拉夫·肖爾茨和親商聯盟夥伴自由民主黨的抵製。 環保人士表示，這隻會延長對化石燃料的依賴。
庫爾曼對此表示讚同：“主要是錯誤的政治決策導致並影響了這些高能源成本。 現在不能讓德國工業、德國工人來承擔這筆費用。”
天然氣價格大約是 2021 年的兩倍，這對需要天然氣每天 24 小時保持玻璃或金屬熾熱和熔化以製造用於建築物和汽車的玻璃、紙張和金屬塗層的公司造成了損害。
第二次打擊是，主要貿易夥伴中國在經曆了幾十年的強勁經濟增長後經曆了經濟放緩。
這些外部衝擊暴露了德國基礎上的裂縫，這些裂縫在多年的成功中被忽視，包括政府和企業數字技術的滯後使用，以及急需的可再生能源項目批準的漫長過程。
其他初步認識：政府手頭上手頭有錢的部分原因是對農村地區公路、鐵路網和高速互聯網投資的延遲。 由於擔心電價和電力短缺，2011年關閉德國剩餘核電站的決定受到質疑。 企業麵臨熟練勞動力的嚴重短缺，職位空缺數量創曆史新高，接近 200 萬個。
依靠俄羅斯通過波羅的海下的北溪管道可靠地供應天然氣——該管道由前總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Merkel)建造，但在戰爭期間被關閉和損壞——政府後來承認這是一個錯誤。
現在，清潔能源項目因廣泛的官僚主義和非我後院的阻力而放緩。 在巴伐利亞南部地區，距住宅的間距限製使得每年風力渦輪機的建設量保持在個位數。
一條耗資 100 億歐元（106.8 億美元）的電力線路將風能從微風徐徐的北方輸送到南方的工業界，但因政治阻力和難看的地上塔而麵臨代價高昂的延誤。
埋藏該線路意味著2028年而不是2022年竣工。
拜登政府向在美國投資的企業提供巨額清潔能源補貼，引發了人們對德國落後的嫉妒和警惕。
庫爾曼說：“我們看到各國政府在全球範圍內爭奪最具吸引力的未來技術——有吸引力意味著最有利可圖、能夠促進增長的技術。”
他引用了贏創決定在印第安納州拉斐特建造一座耗資 2.2 億美元的脂質生產設施的決定，脂質是 COVID-19 疫苗的關鍵成分。 他說，在德國官員表現出興趣不大之後，美國的快速批準和高達 1.5 億美元的補貼發揮了作用。
“我希望在布魯塞爾和柏林看到更多一點實用主義，”庫爾曼說。
與此同時，能源密集型企業正在尋求應對價格衝擊。
Drewsen Spezialpapiere 生產護照紙、郵票紙以及不會給軟飲料消泡的紙吸管，該公司在其位於德國北部的工廠附近購買了三台風力渦輪機，以滿足其外部電力需求的約四分之一，因為該公司逐漸遠離自然電力 氣體。
特種玻璃公司 Schott AG 生產的產品範圍從爐灶到疫苗瓶，再到智利極大望遠鏡天文台的 39 米（128 英尺）鏡子，該公司已在工廠嚐試用無排放的氫氣替代天然氣。 它在溫度高達 1,700 攝氏度的罐中生產玻璃。
它起作用了——但隻是小規模，由卡車提供氫氣。 需要用可再生電力生產並通過管道輸送大量氫氣，但目前還不存在。
肖爾茨呼籲能源轉型采取“德國節奏”，與在幾個月內建立四個浮動天然氣終端以取代俄羅斯天然氣流失的緊迫性相同。 從美國、卡塔爾和其他地方通過船運到碼頭的液化天然氣比俄羅斯管道供應的液化天然氣貴得多，但這一努力表明德國在必要時可以采取行動。
然而，聯合政府之間圍繞能源價格上限和禁止新建煤氣爐的法律的爭論激怒了商界領袖。
贏創的庫爾曼駁回了最近的一攬子政府提案，其中包括投資稅收減免和旨在減少官僚主義的法律，稱其為“創可貼”。
貝倫貝格銀行首席經濟學家霍爾格·施米丁表示，德國在 2010 年至 2020 年經濟增長的“黃金十年”中變得自滿，其基礎是德國總理格哈德·施羅德在 2003 年至 2005 年實施的改革，降低了勞動力成本並提高了競爭力。
“對德國潛在實力的認知也可能導致了退出核能、禁止天然氣水力壓裂以及押注俄羅斯充足天然氣供應等錯誤決定，”他說。 “德國正在為其能源政策付出代價。”
施米丁曾在 1998 年的一份頗具影響力的分析中將德國稱為“歐洲病夫”，他認為，考慮到德國的低失業率和強勁的政府財政，這個標簽在今天看來有些過頭了。 這給了德國采取行動的空間，但也減輕了做出改變的壓力。
施米丁表示，最重要的直接步驟是通過價格上限來結束能源價格的不確定性，不僅幫助大公司，也幫助小公司。
無論選擇什麽政策，“如果政府能夠迅速就這些政策達成一致，這樣企業就知道自己在做什麽，並能夠做出相應的計劃，而不是推遲投資決策，這將是一個很大的幫助，”他說。
Germany went from envy of the world to the worst-performing major developed economy. What happened?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/once-global-ideal-germanys-economy-062845919.html
DAVID McHUGH
Jobs were plentiful, the government's financial coffers grew as other European countries drowned in debt, and books were written about what other countries could learn from Germany.
No longer. Now, Germany is the world’s worst-performing major developed economy, with both the International Monetary Fund and European Union expecting it to shrink this year.
It follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the loss of Moscow's cheap natural gas — an unprecedented shock to Germany’s energy-intensive industries, long the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe.
The sudden underperformance by Europe's largest economy has set off a wave of criticism, handwringing and debate about the way forward.
Germany risks “deindustrialization” as high energy costs and government inaction on other chronic problems threaten to send new factories and high-paying jobs elsewhere, said Christian Kullmann, CEO of major German chemical company Evonik Industries AG.
From his 21st-floor office in the west German town of Essen, Kullmann points out the symbols of earlier success across the historic Ruhr Valley industrial region: smokestacks from metal plants, giant heaps of waste from now-shuttered coal mines, a massive BP oil refinery and Evonik's sprawling chemical production facility.
These days, the former mining region, where coal dust once blackened hanging laundry, is a symbol of the energy transition, dotted with wind turbines and green space.
The loss of cheap Russian natural gas needed to power factories “painfully damaged the business model of the German economy,” Kullmann told The Associated Press. “We’re in a situation where we’re being strongly affected — damaged — by external factors.”
After Russia cut off most of its gas to the European Union, spurring an energy crisis in the 27-nation bloc that had sourced 40% of the fuel from Moscow, the German government asked Evonik to keep its 1960s coal-fired power plant running a few months longer.
The company is shifting away from the plant — whose 40-story smokestack fuels production of plastics and other goods — to two gas-fired generators that can later run on hydrogen amid plans to become carbon neutral by 2030.
One hotly debated solution: a government-funded cap on industrial electricity prices to get the economy through the renewable energy transition.
The proposal from Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck of the Greens Party has faced resistance from Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, and pro-business coalition partner the Free Democrats. Environmentalists say it would only prolong reliance on fossil fuels.
Kullmann is for it: “It was mistaken political decisions that primarily developed and influenced these high energy costs. And it can’t now be that German industry, German workers should be stuck with the bill.”
The price of gas is roughly double what it was in 2021, hurting companies that need it to keep glass or metal red-hot and molten 24 hours a day to make glass, paper and metal coatings used in buildings and cars.
A second blow came as key trade partner China experiences a slowdown after several decades of strong economic growth.
These outside shocks have exposed cracks in Germany's foundation that were ignored during years of success, including lagging use of digital technology in government and business and a lengthy process to get badly needed renewable energy projects approved.
Other dawning realizations: The money that the government readily had on hand came in part because of delays in investing in roads, the rail network and high-speed internet in rural areas. A 2011 decision to shut down Germany's remaining nuclear power plants has been questioned amid worries about electricity prices and shortages. Companies face a severe shortage of skilled labor, with job openings hitting a record of just under 2 million.
And relying on Russia to reliably supply gas through the Nord Stream pipelines under the Baltic Sea — built under former Chancellor Angela Merkel and since shut off and damaged amid the war — was belatedly conceded by the government to have been a mistake.
Now, clean energy projects are slowed by extensive bureaucracy and not-in-my-backyard resistance. Spacing limits from homes keep annual construction of wind turbines in single digits in the southern Bavarian region.
A 10 billion-euro ($10.68 billion) electrical line bringing wind power from the breezier north to industry in the south has faced costly delays from political resistance to unsightly above-ground towers. Burying the line means completion in 2028 instead of 2022.
Massive clean energy subsidies that the Biden administration is offering to companies investing in the U.S. have evoked envy and alarm that Germany is being left behind.
“We’re seeing a worldwide competition by national governments for the most attractive future technologies — attractive meaning the most profitable, the ones that strengthen growth,” Kullmann said.
He cited Evonik’s decision to build a $220 million production facility for lipids — key ingredients in COVID-19 vaccines — in Lafayette, Indiana. Rapid approvals and up to $150 million in U.S. subsidies made a difference after German officials evinced little interest, he said.
“I'd like to see a little more of that pragmatism ... in Brussels and Berlin,” Kullmann said.
In the meantime, energy-intensive companies are looking to cope with the price shock.
Drewsen Spezialpapiere, which makes passport and stamp paper as well as paper straws that don't de-fizz soft drinks, bought three wind turbines near its mill in northern Germany to cover about a quarter of its external electricity demand as it moves away from natural gas.
Specialty glass company Schott AG, which makes products ranging from stovetops to vaccine bottles to the 39-meter (128-foot) mirror for the Extremely Large Telescope astronomical observatory in Chile, has experimented with substituting emissions-free hydrogen for gas at the plant where it produces glass in tanks as hot as 1,700 degrees Celsius.
It worked — but only on a small scale, with hydrogen supplied by truck. Mass quantities of hydrogen produced with renewable electricity and delivered by pipeline would be needed and don't exist yet.
Scholz has called for the energy transition to take on the “Germany tempo,” the same urgency used to set up four floating natural gas terminals in months to replace lost Russian gas. The liquefied natural gas that comes to the terminals by ship from the U.S., Qatar and elsewhere is much more expensive than Russian pipeline supplies, but the effort showed what Germany can do when it has to.
However, squabbling among the coalition government over the energy price cap and a law barring new gas furnaces has exasperated business leaders.
Evonik's Kullmann dismissed a recent package of government proposals, including tax breaks for investment and a law aimed at reducing bureaucracy, as “a Band-Aid.”
Germany grew complacent during a “golden decade” of economic growth in 2010-2020 based on reforms under Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in 2003-2005 that lowered labor costs and increased competitiveness, says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank.
“The perception of Germany's underlying strength may also have contributed to the misguided decisions to exit nuclear energy, ban fracking for natural gas and bet on ample natural gas supplies from Russia,” he said. “Germany is paying the price for its energy policies.”
Schmieding, who once dubbed Germany “the sick man of Europe” in an influential 1998 analysis, thinks that label would be overdone today, considering its low unemployment and strong government finances. That gives Germany room to act — but also lowers the pressure to make changes.
The most important immediate step, Schmieding said, would be to end uncertainty over energy prices, through a price cap to help not just large companies, but smaller ones as well.
Whatever policies are chosen, “it would already be a great help if the government could agree on them fast so that companies know what they are up to and can plan accordingly instead of delaying investment decisions," he said.
