Gal Luft 去美元化和新金融世界秩序的興起

去美元化：對美元的反抗和新金融世界秩序的興起

https://www.amazon.ca/dollarization-revolt-against-dollar-financial/dp/168647959X

作者：Gal Luft (作者), Anne Korin (作者) 2019 年 8 月 26 日

自二戰以來，美元作為世界最重要貨幣的地位與美國軍事力量一起，一直是美國實力的基礎。 在對國際事務中最具影響力但最不受關注的發展之一的全麵回顧中，加爾·拉夫特和安妮·科林描述了修正主義國家、流氓政府、技術夢想家和受製裁實體的新興聯盟如何在區塊鏈和 5G 等創新的支持下， 正在努力將美元從儲備貨幣的寶座上推下來。

這並不是第一次。 在美元之前，連續五種貨幣統治著市場，每種貨幣都屬於當時的超級大國。 每種貨幣都占據主導地位大約 80-100 年，當它跌落到無關緊要的地步時，它加速了其背後帝國的衰落。我們是否應該重演？美元的緩慢轉變可能是決定未來的最重要因素。 美國的力量。 阻止這一趨勢需要美國人做出艱難的選擇。拉夫特和科林是華盛頓特區全球安全分析研究所（IAGS）的聯合主任。

美國專家：“去美元化”是大勢所趨

來源：中國日報網  2023-04-25

美國全球安全分析研究所聯席所長蓋爾·勒夫特4月24日在《中國日報》撰文稱，“去美元化”是大勢所趨，我們終將迎來一個多極的貨幣世界。

“去美元化”是大勢所趨

文章指出，美元的特殊地位是美國維持全球領導地位的三大助力之一，另外兩者分別是軍事力量和同盟體係。美國在全球貿易份額中僅占十分之一，然而約一半的全球貿易以美元計價。時至今日，這種對美元的過度依賴仍被全球大多數國家所接受，不過越來越多的國家希望降低依賴。

近期，一些國家的領導人喊出“去美元化”口號，這一呼聲正在成為主流。本月上旬，法國總統馬克龍呼籲歐洲降低對美元的依賴，避免淪為美國的附庸。數日後，巴西總統盧拉呼籲發展中國家在國際貿易中以本國貨幣取代美元。

當前，兩大趨勢相互作用，推動“去美元化”呼聲高漲。首先，美國在國際上的所作所為越來越令人不安，尤其是大搞經濟脅迫、濫施長臂管轄。如今，十分之一的國家受到美國製裁，成千上萬的人和企業因違反所謂美國規則而被排除在全球銀行體係之外。僅僅因為擔心成為美國二級製裁的目標，多國企業無法同與本國政府無爭端的國家的同行開展業務往來。

其次，越來越多的國家意識到，從美國的經濟表現來看，美元不再是安全可靠的價值儲存手段，特別是考慮到美國失控的支出和持續攀升的國債。如今，美國國債規模接近32萬億美元，預計將在2027年達到44萬億美元。過去20年裏，美國國債占GDP的比例從60%增至130%，預計將在2027年達到150%。

中國將再次改變貨幣曆史

文章進一步分析稱，千年前，宋朝發行了紙幣“交子”，改變了貨幣曆史。千年後，中國將再次改變這一曆史進程。比如，中國將率先從紙幣過渡到數字貨幣時代，引領全球移動支付。

中國在金磚國家、上海合作組織等“全球南方”集團中的主導地位以及提出的“一帶一路”等倡議，讓其能夠推動全球貨幣結構改革。在新的貨幣結構中，美元不是被某一國貨幣、而是被多極貨幣所取代。

在未來多年裏，美國及美元將繼續在世界事務中發揮重要作用。不過，在新秩序裏，霸權國家、超級大國和贏者通吃的局麵將不複存在。在多極的貨幣世界中，貨幣將重新成為一種交換手段和價值儲存手段，而不是經濟戰略的工具。

（編輯：嚴玉潔 王輝 周鳳梅）

加爾·拉夫特 關於作者

https://www.amazon.ca/stores/author/B0035LH5ZO/about

Gal Luft 博士是全球安全分析研究所 (IAGS) 的聯席主任，該研究所是一家位於華盛頓的智庫，專注於能源安全。 他還是美國能源安全委員會高級顧問和北京全球能源安全論壇聯合主席。 他專門研究戰略、地緣政治、能源安全和技術創新。 《新聞周刊》雜誌稱他為“能源安全孜孜不倦、獨立的倡導者”，商業雜誌《Poder》稱他為“現代能源和安全問題上最知名的人物之一”，《時尚先生》雜誌將他列入美國最優秀和最聰明的人物名單。 拉夫特博士在各種報紙和出版物上發表了大量有關安全和能源問題的研究和文章。 他是《21 世紀能源安全挑戰》（2009 年）、《將石油變成鹽：通過燃料選擇實現能源獨立》（2009 年）和《石油壟斷：美國能源安全範式的崩潰》（2012 年）等書的合著者。他是《啤酒、培根》一書的作者 和子彈：從加裏波利到伊拉克的聯盟戰爭文化（2010）。 他經常出現在媒體上，並為世界各地的各種智囊團和新聞機構提供谘詢。 他擁有約翰·霍普金斯大學保羅·尼茨高級國際研究學院 (SAIS) 戰略研究博士學位。

去美元化、能源安全危機和新世界秩序的崛起：加爾·拉夫特訪談

https://www.wgi.world/de-dollarization-energy-security-crisis-and-rise-of-a-new-world-order-an-interview-with-gal-luft/

采訪 2022 年 8 月 26 日

《世界地緣戰略洞察》就美元霸權的終結、全球能源安全危機以及新的全球權力架構的塑造對加爾·拉夫特博士進行了采訪。

加爾·拉夫特博士是奧斯蒂姆技術大學全球安全分析研究所（IAGS）聯席主任兼世界政治經濟中心主任。 他是美國能源安全委員會的高級顧問，該委員會是一個內閣級的政府外谘詢委員會。 他專門研究地緣政治、地緣經濟、能源安全、中東和中美關係。

– 2019 年，您出版了一本題為《去美元化：對美元的反抗和新金融世界秩序的崛起》的書。 我們可以觀察到，今天發生的許多事件在您的書中都有預言。 事實上，作為對烏克蘭戰爭的回應，美國與其歐洲盟友將幾家俄羅斯銀行從基本上是全球銀行體係支柱的SWIFT中刪除，並正在通過5000多項不同的定向製裁來爭取 將俄羅斯排除在國際金融和貿易市場之外。 與此同時，一些國家正在考慮在國際貿易交易中使用美元的替代貨幣。 西方列強在二戰後布雷頓森林會議上創建的全球金融體係正在發生怎樣的轉變？ 我們是否正在見證美元霸權的終結，從貨幣單極時代走向貨幣多極化時代？

加爾·拉夫特 — 美元作為全球儲備貨幣的特殊地位是美國在國際舞台上的主要力量來源，甚至比其軍事力量還要重要。 美國之所以能夠維持30萬億美元的高債務水平，並以每年1萬億美元的速度增長，是因為它能夠輕鬆地從外國以及向本國公民借入無限量的資金。

直到最近，世界仍然對美國的領導力、價值觀和意圖的純潔性抱有信心，各國央行也一直渴望並願意持有美元資產。 現在這種情況正在改變。世界大部分地區，特別是南半球國家，已經對美國及其“基於規則的國際秩序”產生了懷疑。

許多國家厭倦了美國的長臂管轄和大規模製裁。如今，世界上十分之一的國家受到美國的製裁。我們今天所目睹的不亞於對美國領導地位的反抗，這種情緒無疑會影響美元的地位。 這並不意味著美元很快就會崩潰或被另一種貨幣取代。 可以肯定的是，如今沒有任何單一貨幣能夠取代美元的地位。 但我很容易看到的是全球金融體係的分歧以及平行的全球南方金融體係的出現，該體係在貿易、投資、金融和發展方麵為美元體係提供了替代方案。 金磚國家和其他國家已經繪製了這樣一個體係的輪廓線。 在新體係下，各國，特別是大宗商品出口經濟體將越來越多地以非美元貨幣進行貿易，參與非美元貨幣互換，提供非美元貸款，並通過非SWIFT清算係統共享銀行數據。 各國央行將越來越多地削減美元在外匯儲備中的份額。 對於美國來說，這種趨勢意味著麻煩，但大多數沉浸在美國偉大之中的美國政策製定者卻完全忽視了這一點，就像他們對通脹卷土重來的想法不屑一顧一樣。

為了維持其全球地位，美國必須能夠繼續從世界其他國家借入數萬億美元 — — 並且以低利率進行。 您想向烏克蘭匯款數十億美元還是免除學生貸款？ 這些錢一定來自某個地方，因為它似乎不是來自生產率的提高或增長乏力。 目前美國國債為 30 萬億美元，每個納稅人的債務為 244,000 美元。 預計到 2026 年，這一數字將增至 40 萬億美元，每個納稅人的債務將躍升至 30 萬美元。 這些數字不包括國家債務、抵押貸款、信用卡債務、汽車貸款和學生貸款。 這些數字令人難以置信。 這是所有債務陷阱之母。 因此，毫不奇怪的是，美國習慣於借債的許多國家不再急於將自己更深地陷入美國的債務陷阱，尤其是中國，因為它知道自己的資金可能被凍結或用來對抗它。我們已經看到包括中國、沙特阿拉伯和巴西在內的幾個主要經濟體縮減了對美國債券的購買。與此同時，利率也在爬升資金必須以其他政府支出為代價償還給貸方。

長話短說：從技術上講，美國已經破產，但仍在繼續支出，就像沒有明天一樣。 與過去不同的是，現在的貸款機構更加謹慎，他們是步行而不是跑向最近的出口。 這意味著對美元的需求將會下降，其全球地位也會下降。 最終，美元仍將在全球金融體係中發揮關鍵作用，但其作用並不比前儲備貨幣英鎊今天的作用大多少。 對於一些讀者來說，這可能是一個奇怪的評估。 但我們需要做的就是看看曆史記錄。 在過去的600年裏，昔日帝國出現了多種儲備貨幣，每種貨幣的生命周期大約為80年。 布雷頓森林體係是美元的正式加冕禮。 那是近80年前的事了。 我們可能即將迎來繼任者。

– 俄羅斯石油公司 Rosneft 總裁伊戈爾·謝欽 (Igor Sechin) 去年 6 月在聖彼得堡論壇上發表講話時表示，“歐洲正在能源自殺……我們已經看到其經濟潛力下降、競爭力喪失和直接能源消耗”。 給投資者造成損失。” 事實上，在俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機爆發等背景下，能源價格飆升。 歐洲各國政府正在追求的目標是使歐洲與俄羅斯能源脫鉤，並用包括美國在內的其他國家的供應替代，其價格遠高於俄羅斯天然氣和石油。 即使考慮到歐洲國家對烏克蘭的可理解的團結，您認為推動他們當前能源選擇的邏輯是什麽？ 歐洲能源供應安全麵臨風險嗎？ 另外，您是美國能源安全委員會的高級顧問，請問美國在能源安全和全球能源格局方麵的戰略考量和舉措是什麽？

加爾·拉夫特——當前的全球能源安全危機是曆史上最嚴重的，甚至比 20 世紀 70 年代的危機還要嚴重。 如果說 20 世紀 70 年代的危機是由中東戰爭在地緣政治上引發的，那麽今天的危機則是地緣政治、經濟和氣候條件相互作用的完美風暴的結果。 如果你的河流正在幹涸，你就無法將德國魯爾河上遊的煤炭運到耗電的工業區來替代俄羅斯的天然氣。 當中國8000萬人口的四川省的河流在60年來最嚴重的幹旱中幹涸時，你無法在一夜之間取代水力發電，而水力發電是你80%的電力來源。 大自然已成為全球能源安全圖景的主導者。

歐洲麵臨的能源危機根源於多年的環境政策，這些政策實際上在氣候極端主義的祭壇上犧牲了能源安全考慮。 當你對化石燃料說不，同時你同樣堅決地對核能說不時，當危機來襲時，你的選擇就很少了。 可悲的是，歐洲隻有兩個選擇：以允許俄羅斯能源恢複供電的方式解決烏克蘭危機，或者開始經濟自取其辱。 到目前為止，它似乎選擇了後者，但一旦人民的聲音開始壓倒布魯塞爾主人的意願，這種情況就會改變。 短期內沒有中間道路，任何政治姿態都無法改變這一點。 不幸的是，對於歐洲來說，政治勇氣已經變成了比能源更稀缺的資源。

美國的處境則截然不同。 它擁有其所需的大部分能源，其能源組合相當多元化，但交通運輸業仍然嚴重依賴石油。 當歐洲人收容難民、縮短淋浴時間並關閉工廠時，美國很容易對俄羅斯采取強硬立場。 此外，當前的歐洲危機使美國能夠將俄羅斯能源從歐洲市場上清除，並將歐洲變成其能源商品的主要出口市場。 歐洲的資金將流向美國而不是俄羅斯，這一事實讓一些人感到安慰。 但他們經常忘記，對於歐洲來說，這意味著從管道天然氣轉向液化天然氣，而液化天然氣總是更貴，而且價格也總是更不穩定。

坦率地說，歐洲正在通過轉向液化天然氣向自己征收永久性稅。 令人驚訝的是美國決策者缺乏戰略一致性，特別是那些擔心中國崛起的決策者。 將俄羅斯能源從歐洲市場清除，意味著俄羅斯將重心轉向亞洲，成為印太地區的主要能源來源地。 調整基礎設施需要幾年時間，但一旦完成，俄羅斯將成為亞洲強國。 它將成為中國和印度（人口總數的三分之一）的石油、煤炭和天然氣的主要來源。 如果美國想繼續在印太地區發揮主導作用，如果它想離間俄羅斯和中國，俄羅斯和印度，推動俄羅斯東移有何幫助？

現實情況是，美國在國內和國際上都沒有能源政策。 它每四年從支持能源心態轉變為反能源心態，從特朗普的“能源主導”口號轉變為拜登的“不再鑽探”言論。 在這種分裂的政策環境下，資本密集型能源行業無法發揮最佳作用。 它需要確定性、政策連續性和需求安全。 如果我們今天不開始開發明天的能源，明天我們就不會有能源。 由於零排放心態已經變得如此普遍，我們對不可再生能源開發的投資不足，這意味著與正在醞釀的一場更大的危機相比，歐洲當前正在經曆的危機可能很快就會成為美好的回憶。

– 在您的一些著作中，您曾說過世界分為三組國家。 第一組是西方加上日本、新加坡和韓國等一些成員。 第二種是所謂的修正主義者。 以中國和俄羅斯為首的兩國正在推動建立一個不再受“西方”領導的國際體係。 第三組包括大多數國家，即所謂的不結盟國家，他們從全球化體係中受益最多，希望全球化體係能夠生存，但又不想受到超級大國的強大壓力。 即使考慮到烏克蘭戰爭的影響，這三個集團之間的界限以及全球權力的新架構是如何形成的？

加爾·拉夫特——地緣政治板塊確實正在以令人頭暈目眩的速度發生變化，產生了巨大的曆史影響，而所有這一切發生的時候，諸如糧食短缺、惡性通貨膨脹、蕭條和社會崩潰等術語對於那些從未接觸過這些術語的年輕人來說幾乎不熟悉。 經曆過他們。 國際體係正在以二戰以來從未有過的方式重新安排，由三組國家組成。 聯合國 193 個成員國中約有 100 個不結盟。 其餘的或多或少在西方和俄羅斯/中國領導的修正主義集團之間劃分。 不結盟國家麵臨著來自雙方的壓力，要求他們在對其國家主權至關重要的問題上做出艱難的選擇，例如基礎設施供應商、技術和能源供應商的選擇、軍事采購、在國際組織中的投票權，甚至是他們選擇的貨幣。 進行他們的貿易。

烏克蘭戰爭，特別是西方對不結盟國家施加壓力，要求它們譴責俄羅斯並加入製裁，鞏固了三個集團的關係。 除新加坡外，不結盟國家拒絕站在西方一邊。 華盛頓的“要麽與我們站在一起，要麽與中國/俄羅斯站在一起”的態度，更糟糕的是，其“民主國家與獨裁國家”的提法並沒有受到這些國家的歡迎，這些國家本質上希望與所有人保持良好關係，並專注於 他們的發展。 他們最不想看到的就是成為大國地緣政治競爭中的棋子。
換句話說，烏克蘭危機讓不結盟國家走上了國際舞台的前沿。 幾十年來一直被大國忽視的小國和基本上無足輕重的國家突然受到它們的青睞。 以所羅門群島為例，這個南太平洋的一個偏僻國家，人口70萬，沒有自然資源，也沒有創新中心，現在卻受到美國、澳大利亞和新西蘭的哄騙，這些國家對它進行了大量的高層訪問、奉承和援助， 隻是為了防止它漂向中國。 類似的例子在東盟、中東、拉丁美洲和非洲也可以看到。 不結盟國家正在學習如何讓大國相互對抗，並在此過程中獲得最大利益。

我們今天看到的本質上是全球範圍內一場零和博弈/非洲爭奪式外交的重演。 新的全球權力架構正在沿著冷戰模式塑造自身，在這種模式中，西方和蘇聯集團必須與思想獨立、拒絕選邊站隊的不結盟運動作鬥爭。 南半球國家已經受到強烈反殖民主義敏感性的推動，對任何帶有西方虛偽、優越感或例外論味道的事物都抱有強烈的反感，我懷疑，隨著時間的推移，如果西方價值觀和領導力繼續失敗，它將會 對於西方來說，招募追隨者更加困難。 值得記住的是，今天出生的接下來 1000 個嬰兒中，隻有不到 100 個是西方人。 從任何衡量標準來看，未來不再屬於西方，而是屬於其他國家。

Gal Luft 博士 – 奧斯蒂姆技術大學全球安全分析研究所 (IAGS) 聯席主任兼世界政治經濟中心主任。 他是美國能源安全委員會的高級顧問，該委員會是內閣級額外政府耳鼻喉科谘詢委員會。 他專門研究地緣政治、地緣經濟、能源安全、中東和中美關係。 《新聞周刊》雜誌稱他為“能源安全孜孜不倦、獨立的倡導者”，《時尚先生》雜誌將他列入美國最優秀和最聰明的人物名單。 拉夫特博士在各種報紙和出版物上發表了大量研究和文章。 他是《21 世紀能源安全挑戰》（2009 年）、《把石油變成鹽：通過燃料選擇實現能源獨立》（2009 年）、《石油壟斷：美國能源安全範式的崩潰》（2012 年）和《去美元化：反抗》等書的合著者 兌美元和新金融世界秩序的崛起（2019）。 他是《啤酒、培根和子彈：從加裏波利到伊拉克的聯合戰爭中的文化》（2010年）和《絲綢之路2.0：美國對中國一帶一路倡議的戰略》（2017年）的作者。 他經常出現在媒體上，並為世界各地的各種智囊團和公司提供建議。 他擁有約翰·霍普金斯大學保羅·尼茨高級國際研究學院 (SAIS) 戰略研究博士學位。

 

Gal Luft  About the author

https://www.amazon.ca/stores/author/B0035LH5ZO/about

Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) a Washington based think tank focused on energy security. He is also Senior Adviser to the United States Energy Security Council and Co-chairman of the Global Forum on Energy Security in Beijing. He specializes in strategy, geopolitics, energy security, and technological innovation. Newsweek Magazine called him a "tireless and independent advocate of energy security," the business magazine Poder called him "one of the most recognizable figures in modern energy and security issues," and Esquire Magazine included him in its list of America's Best and Brightest. Dr. Luft has published numerous studies and articles on security and energy issues in various newspapers and publications. He is co-author of Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (2009), Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice (2009) and Petropoly: The Collapse of America's Energy Security Paradigm (2012) He is author of Beer, Bacon and Bullets: Culture in Coalition Warfare from Gallipoli to Iraq (2010). He appears frequently in the media and consults to various think tanks and news organizations worldwide. He holds a doctorate in strategic studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University.

De-dollarization: The revolt against the dollar and the rise of a new financial world order

https://www.amazon.ca/dollarization-revolt-against-dollar-financial/dp/168647959X
by Gal Luft (Author), Anne Korin (Author)  Aug. 26 2019

The dollar's status as the world's preeminent currency, together with the U.S. military, has underlain American power since World War II. In a sweeping review of one of the most seminal yet least noticed developments in international affairs, Gal Luft and Anne Korin describe how an emerging coalition of revisionist countries, rogue governments, techno-visionaries and sanctioned entities, buttressed by innovations like blockchain and 5G, are working to push the dollar off of its reserve currency throne.

It would not be the first time. Preceding the dollar, five consecutive currencies, each belonging to a superpower of the time, ruled the markets. Each predominated for roughly 80-100 years, and as it tumbled to irrelevance it accelerated the decline of the empire behind it.Are we due for a rerun?The slow moving shift from the dollar may be the single most important factor determining the future of American power. Arresting this trend will require Americans to make tough choices.Luft and Korin are co-directors of the Washington, DC-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS).

Why de-dollarization is inevitable

 

https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/327271

By Gal Luft  April 24, 2023

 

Editor's note: The abuse of the dollar's status as the international reserve currency by the United States and the losses other economies suffer due to the dollar's wild fluctuations and US economic sanctions are prompting more and more countries to seek countermeasures, by using their domestic currencies to settle trade payments, thus triggering what could be the de-dollarization of the global economy. Four experts share their views on the issue with China Daily.

In 1023, a thousand years ago, the Song Dynasty (960-1279) changed the history of money by introducing paper money, jiaozi, as legal tender and a means of exchange. The shift from cumbersome stores of value such as gold and silver to government-backed paper money started in southwestern Chengdu and eventually became the world standard, which facilitates global trade and commerce to this day.

A full millennium later, China is again set to transform the history of money, first, by spearheading the transition from paper money to the era of digital currency, leading the world in mobile payments and adopting Central Bank Digital Currency, through its digital renminbi and, second, by spearheading the transition away from the US dollar as the global reserve currency.

The dollar's special status is one of the three enablers of the United States' global pre-eminence, the other two being its military power and its alliance system. The US accounts for only one-tenth of global trade but about half of global trade is invoiced in dollars. Until recently, this disproportional reliance on the US currency was widely accepted by most countries in the world, but now more and more countries are saying they want to reduce their dependence on the greenback.

The rallying cry for "de-dollarization" which until recently had been raised by some "ostracized" leaders is now becoming mainstream. This month, French President Emmanuel Macron called for Europe to reduce its reliance on the US dollar to avoid becoming "vassals" of the US. A week later in Shanghai, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on developing countries to work toward replacing the US dollar with their own currencies in international trade.

Driving these calls for de-dollarization are two mutually reinforcing trends. The first is the growing discomfort with the US' international behavior, especially its overly aggressive use of economic coercion and long-arm jurisdiction. Today, one in 10 countries are under US sanctions, and tens of thousands of individuals and corporations are excluded from the global banking system because they violated so-called Washington's rules. Companies are unable to conduct business with their counterparts in countries with which their governments have no dispute just because of the fear of being targeted by secondary US sanctions.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has set new precedents: freezing and seizing of private and government assets without due process, disconnecting the banks of certain countries from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, and imposing wholesale sanctions on individuals, corporations and other entities, leading many countries at odds with the US to rethink the wisdom of the greenback's continuous dominance of global trade and commerce.

The second trend is one of a growing sense among countries that the dollar is no longer a safe store of value due to the US' economic practices, especially its out-of-control spending and its ballooning national debt which is nearing $32 trillion and is projected to reach $44 trillion by 2027. The US' federal debt-to-GDP ratio has grown over the past 20 years from 60 percent to 130 percent, and is projected to hit 150 percent by 2027.

A quarter of the US debt is owned by foreign countries, many of them no longer willing to increase their holdings of US debt. Last year, Japan and China, the two largest holders of US Treasuries, jointly reduced their holdings by $400 billion — equivalent to half of the US' defense budget. In the same year, US deficit reached $1.38 trillion.

In other words, while the US' borrowing needs are on a perpetual rise, many countries are increasingly reluctant to lend it money, especially when much of this money could be used against their interests, for example, by financing military expansion, and instigating foreign wars and color revolutions.

As the top trading partner of no fewer than 120 countries and as the world's leading commodity importer, China is the only economy that can put a dent in the dollar's reserve currency status. It can shift an increasing part of its trade from the dollar to other currencies and urge its suppliers of energy, food and minerals to not only accept non-dollar payments for their commodities but also to price them in alternative currencies.

China's predominant role in the groupings of the Global South such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative enable it to propel a change in the global monetary architecture in which the dollar is replaced not by a single national currency but by what can be defined as "currency multipolarity", under which a number of currencies of major economies and groupings compete with each other over their share in global trade transactions.

In a 2019 interview from his prison cell, Lula said the rationale behind the formation of BRICS was to "create our own currency to become independent from the US dollar". After returning to power in Brazil, Lula has made no secret of his plan to join China and other existing and prospective BRICS members in developing alternatives to the dollar based on a BRICS currency basket comprising the Five Rs — real, ruble, rupee, renminbi and rand.

In the thousand years since the Song Dynasty changed the history of money, no fewer than six reserve currencies, each belonging to a superpower of the time, have ruled the markets. Each dominated the global market for 80-100 years, and the tumbling of a currency accelerated the decline of the empire behind it. The dollar has been a global reserve currency for the past 80 years and if history is our guide, we are due for a rerun.

To be sure, both the US and its currency will continue to play a central role in world affairs for many years to come, but in the new order there will be no more room for hegemony, superpowers and winner-takes-all strategies. And, as Republican Senator Marco Rubio recently lamented, the US will increasingly lose its ability to sanction other countries. Under "currency multipolarity", money will return to become what it was always intended to be: a means of exchange and a store of value, not an instrument of economic statecraft.

The author is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security and co-author of Dedollarization: The Revolt against the Dollar and the Rise of a New Financial World Order (2019).

The views don't necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

De-dollarization, Energy Security Crisis and Rise of a New World Order: an interview with Gal Luft

INTERVIEWS  26/08/2022

World Geostrategic Insights interview with Dr. Gal Luft on the end of dollar hegemony, the global energy security crisis, and the shaping of a new global power architecture.

Gal Luft

Dr. Gal Luft is co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and director of the Center for World Political Economy, Ostim Technical University. He is a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, a cabinet level extra governmental advisory committee. He specializes in geopolitics, geo-economics, energy security, Middle East and US-China relations.

 

– In 2019 you published a book entitled “De-dollarization: The Revolt Against the Dollar and the Rise of a New Financial World Order.” We can observe that many of the events that are happening today were predicted in your book. In fact, as a response to the war in Ukraine, the United States, with its European allies, removed several Russian banks from the SWIFT, which is basically the backbone of the global banking system, and with more than 5,000 different targeted sanctions are striving to exclude Russia from international financial and trade markets. At the same time, several countries are considering the use of alternative currencies to the dollar in their international trade transactions. How is the global financial system created by the Western powers after World War II, at the Bretton Woods conference, being transformed? Are we witnessing the end of dollar hegemony and moving from an era of currency unipolarity to an era of currency multipolarity? 

 

Gal Luft – The dollar’s special status as global reserve currency is America’s main source of power on the international stage, even more so than its military. The reason the US can maintain a high debt level of $30 trillion, growing at a pace of $1 trillion a year, is because it is able to easily borrow unlimited amounts of money from foreign countries as well as from its own citizens. Until recently the world has had faith in America’s leadership, its values and the purity of its intentions and central banks have been eager and willing to hold dollar assets. This is now changing. Much of the world, particularly the Global South, has become skeptical of the US and its “rules-based international order.” 

 

Many countries are fed up with America’s long-arm jurisdiction and its wholesale use of sanctions. Today one in ten countries in the world is under US sanctions. What we are witnessing today is no less than a revolt against America’s leadership, and this sentiment will no doubt impact the status of the dollar. This does not mean that the dollar will collapse or be replaced by another currency any time soon. To be sure, today no single currency can enter the dollar’s big shoes. But what I can easily see is bifurcation of the global financial system and the emergence of a parallel Global South-based financial system which poses an alternative to the dollar system in trade, investments, finance and development. The contour lines of such a system are already being drawn by BRICS and others. Under the new system, countries, especially commodity exporting economies, will increasingly trade with each other in non-dollar currencies, engage in non-dollar currency swaps, provide non-dollar loans and share banking data through non-SWIFT clearing systems. Central banks will increasingly trim down the share of the dollar in their foreign exchange reserves. For the US this trend spells trouble, but most American policymakers, basking in America’s greatness, are completely oblivious of it, just as they dismissed the idea of the comeback of inflation.

 

In order to maintain its global posture, the US must be able to continue to borrow trillions from the rest of the world – and do so at low interest rates. Do you want to send billions to Ukraine or forgive student loans? The money must come from somewhere because it doesn’t seem to come from productivity gains or anemic growth. US national debt today is $30 trillion, and the debt per taxpayer is $244,000. This number is projected to rise to $40 trillion by 2026 with debt per taxpayer jumping to $300,000. These figures do not include state debt, mortgages, credit card debt, car loans and student loans. The numbers are mind boggling. This is the mother of all debt traps. It should therefore come as no surprise that many of the countries from which the US has been accustomed to borrow are no longer eager to dig themselves deeper into the American debt trap, especially China that knows that its own money could be frozen or used against it. We can already see several major economies including China, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil scaling back their purchases of US bonds. At the same time, interest rates are crawling upwards. In the next 4-5 years the cost of servicing US federal debt will reach 10% of the federal budget. This money will have to be repaid to lenders at the expense of other government outlays. 

 

To make the long story short: the US is technically bankrupt but continues to spend like there is no tomorrow. Unlike the past, its lenders are now more cautious and are walking, still not running, to the nearest exit. This means demand for the greenback will dwindle and so will its global status. Ultimately, the dollar will remain a key player in the global financial system but not much more than the British Pound, the previous reserve currency, plays today. For some readers this may be an outlandish assessment. But all we need to do is look at the historical record. Over the past 600 years there have been several reserve currencies of erstwhile empires each with a life cycle of roughly 80 years. Bretton Woods was the official coronation of the dollar. It was nearly 80 years ago. We may be due for succession.

 

– Igor Sechin, head of Russian oil company Rosneft, said in a speech at the St. Petersburg Forum, last June,  that “Europe is committing energy suicide …….we already see a decline in its economic potential, loss of competitiveness and direct losses for investors.” And indeed, against the backdrop of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis and beyond, energy prices have skyrocketed. European governments are pursuing their goal of disconnecting Europe from Russian energy, and replacing it with supplies from other countries, including the United States, priced significantly higher than Russian gas and oil.  Even taking into consideration the comprehensible solidarity of European countries to Ukraine, what do you think are the logics that drive their current energy choices? Is Europe’s energy supply security at risk?  Also, you are a senior advisor to the U.S. Energy Security Council, what are the U.S. strategic considerations and moves on energy security and global energy landscape? 

 

Gal Luft – The current global energy security crisis is the worst in history, even worse than the one in the 1970s. If in the 1970s the crisis was geopolitically driven by wars in the Middle East, today’s crisis is a result of a perfect storm of geopolitical, economic and climatic conditions compounding each other. You can’t move coal upstream Germany’s Ruhr River to your power-guzzling industrial zones to replace Russian gas if your rivers are drying up. And when rivers in China’s 80 million strong province of Sichuan are drying amidst the worst drought in 60 years, you can’t replace overnight hydropower which is the source of 80 percent of your electricity. Mother Nature has become a dominant player in the global energy security picture.

 

The energy crisis Europe is facing has its roots in years of environmental policies that effectively sacrificed energy security considerations on the altar of climate extremism. When you say no to fossil fuels and at the same time you say an equally emphatic no to nuclear power, you are left with very few options when a crisis hits. Sadly, Europe has only two options: resolve the crisis in Ukraine in a way that allows Russian energy back online or embark on economic hara-kiri. So far it seems it has chosen the latter, but this will change once the voice of the people begins to trump the will of their masters in Brussels. In the near term there is no middle way and no political posturing can change that. Unfortunately for Europe, political courage has turned into an even scarcer resource than energy.

 

The US is in a very different position. It owns most of the energy it needs, and its energy portfolio is quite diversified, with the exception of the transportation sector that is still heavily dependent on petroleum. It is easy for the US to toe a hawkish line on Russia when Europeans are the ones hosting the refugees, shortening their showers and shutting down factories. Furthermore, the current crisis in Europe allows the US to purge Russian energy from the European market and turn Europe into the primary export market for its energy commodities. Some draw comfort from the fact that European money will go to America instead of Russia. But they often forget that for Europe this means shifting from piped gas to LNG, which will always be more expensive and its prices will always be more volatile. 

 

To put it bluntly, Europe is imposing on itself a permanent tax by shifting to LNG. What is quite amazing to watch is the lack of strategic coherence of American policymakers, particularly those concerned about the rise of China. Purging Russian energy from the European market means that Russia will pivot to Asia and become the main energy source to the Indo-Pacific region. It will take a few years to adjust the infrastructure, but once this is done Russia will become Asia’s powerhouse. It will be the main source of oil, coal, and natural gas to China and India, together a third of humanity. If America wants to remain the tone-setter in the Indo-Pacific and if it wants to drive a wedge between Russia and China and Russia and India, how does pushing Russia eastward help? 

 

The reality is that the US has no energy policy – domestically and internationally. It switches every four years from a pro-energy mindset to an anti-energy mindset, from Trump’s “Energy Dominance” slogan to Biden’s “No more drilling” rhetoric. The capital-intensive energy industry cannot function optimally under such a schizophrenic policy landscape. It needs certainty, policy continuity and security of demand. If we do not begin to develop today the energy of tomorrow, we will not have energy tomorrow. Because the zero emissions mentality has become so pervasive, we are not investing enough in non-renewable energy development, which means that the current crisis Europe is experiencing may soon be a fond memory compared to a much bigger crisis that is in the making.   

 

– In some of your writings, you have stated that the world is divided into three groups of countries. The first group is the West plus some members such as Japan, Singapore and South Korea. The second are the so-called revisionists. led by China and Russia, who are pushing for an international system no longer under the leadership of the “West.” The third group, which includes most countries, are the so-called non-aligned, who benefit the most from the globalized system and want it to survive but without being subject to strong  pressure from the super powers. How are the boundaries between the three groups and the new architecture of global power shaping up, even with reference to the impact of the war in Ukraine?

 

Gal Luft – The geopolitical tectonic plates are indeed shifting in a head spinning pace with immense historical repercussions and all of this happening at a time terms like food shortages, hyper-inflation, depression, and societal collapse are barely familiar to young people who have never experienced them. The international system is rearranging itself in ways not seen since World War II with three groups of countries comprising it. Of the 193 UN members roughly 100 are non-aligned. The rest are more or less divided between the West and the Russia/China-led Revisionist bloc.  Non-aligned countries are facing pressure from both sides to make tough choices on matters critical to their national sovereignty such as their infrastructure providers, choice of technologies and energy suppliers, military acquisitions, vote in international organizations and even the currency with which they choose to conduct their trade. 

 

The war in Ukraine, especially western pressure on non-aligned countries to condemn Russia and to join the sanctions, has cemented the three blocs. With the exception of Singapore, non-aligned countries declined to side with the West. Washington’s “you’re either with us or with China/Russia” attitude and even worse its “democracies vs. autocracies” formulation has not gone down well at all with those countries, who essentially wish to stay on good terms with everyone and focus on their development. The last thing they want is to become pawns in great powers’ geopolitical rivalries. 

 

In other words, the Ukraine crisis has brought the non-aligned countries to the forefront of the international playing field. Small and largely insignificant countries that for decades have been neglected by the great powers are suddenly being courted by them. Take for example, Solomon Islands, an isolated South Pacific county, population 700,000 with no natural resources or innovation hubs, is now being coaxed by the US, Australia and New Zealand, who are showering it with high-level visits, flattery and aid, just to prevent it from drifting toward China. Similar examples can be seen in ASEAN, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa. Non-aligned countries are learning how to play the great powers against each other and in the process pocket maximum benefits. 

 

What we are seeing today is essentially a rerun of a zero-sum Great Game/Scramble for Africa style of diplomacy just on a global scale. The new global power architecture is shaping itself along the Cold War model in which the West and the Soviet blocs had to contend with independent-minded non-aligned movements which rejected the idea of picking sides. The Global South, which is already driven by strong anti-colonialist sensitivities, has strong aversion to anything that smacks of Western hypocrisy, sense of superiority or exceptionalism and I suspect that as time goes by if Western values and leadership continue to fail it will be even harder for the West to recruit followers. It is worth remembering that fewer than 100 of the next 1,000 babies born today will be westerners. By any measurable yardstick, the future is no longer with the West but with the Rest.

 

Dr. Gal Luft –  Co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security (IAGS) and director of the Center for World Political Economy, Ostim Technical University. He is a senior adviser to the United States Energy Security Council, a cabinet level extra governmental advisory committee. He specializes in geopolitics, geo-economics, energy security, Middle East and US-China relations. Newsweek Magazine called him a “tireless and independent advocate of energy security” and Esquire Magazine included him in its list of America’s Best and Brightest. Dr. Luft has published numerous studies and articles in various newspapers and publications. He is co-author of  Energy Security Challenges for the 21st Century (2009,)  Turning Oil into Salt: Energy Independence Through Fuel Choice (2009,)  Petropoly: The Collapse of America’s Energy Security Paradigm (2012) and  De-dollarization: The revolt against the dollar and the rise of a new financial world order (2019). He is author of  Beer, Bacon and Bullets: Culture in Coalition Warfare from Gallipoli to Iraq (2010), and  Silk Road 2.0: US Strategy toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative (2017). He appears frequently in the media and advises various think tanks and corporations worldwide. He holds a doctorate in strategic studies from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS,) Johns Hopkins University.