風蕭蕭_Frank
以文會友
美國外交政策的陰暗麵
By Rishi Suri , a senior editor covering international affairs at The Daily Milap, India's oldest and largest circulated Urdu daily newspaper. 印度 2023 年 12 月 12 日https://www.globalorder.live/post/the-dark-side-of-america-s-foreign-policy
美國過去破壞民主國家穩定的努力構成了現代曆史上複雜而有爭議的一章，反映了地緣政治戰略、意識形態鬥爭和經濟利益的混合體。 這些努力的根源往往在於冷戰背景下，美國出於遏製共產主義蔓延的願望，在世界不同地區從事各種秘密和公開的行動。
從曆史上看，第二次世界大戰後的時期見證了美國作為全球超級大國的崛起。 這一時期的特點是以美國為代表的資本主義和以蘇聯為首的共產主義之間的意識形態鬥爭。 對多米諾骨牌效應的恐懼，即一個國家陷入共產主義，會導致其他國家效仿，這極大地影響了美國的外交政策。
美國幹預的最著名地區之一是拉丁美洲。 1954 年，中央情報局支持的危地馬拉政變推翻了民選總統雅各布·阿本斯，此類行動的理由是防止共產主義影響。 同樣，1973 年在智利，美國支持軍事政變，推翻了民選社會黨總統薩爾瓦多·阿連德。
越南戰爭是美國的努力不僅僅隻是破壞民主政權的穩定的另一個例子。 這是一次全麵的軍事幹預。 美國支持南越政府對抗共產主義北越，導致了一場曠日持久且毀滅性的衝突。
在伊朗，1953 年由中央情報局和英國情報部門策劃的針對總理穆罕默德·摩薩台的政變，旨在維持西方對伊朗石油資源的控製。 雖然摩薩台是民主選舉產生的，但他對石油工業的國有化威脅到了西方的經濟利益。
除了意識形態原因之外，經濟利益往往在這些幹預措施中發揮著重要作用。 確保友好政府可能意味著更容易獲得自然資源、軍事基地的戰略位置和美國商品的市場。
這些幹預措施對相關國家產生了長期影響。 它們常常導致壓製政治自由和人權的獨裁政權。 這些行動的影響繼續影響著國際社會對美國的看法。
近年來，美國國內對這些政策的反思和重新評估日益增多。 承認過去的錯誤並轉向更加合作和尊重的外交政策可以被視為解決曆史恩怨的步驟。 美國過去破壞民主國家穩定的努力是由意識形態恐懼和經濟利益共同造成的。 雖然這些行動被合理化為國家安全和全球穩定所必需的，但它們往往給相關國家帶來負麵後果。 理解這段曆史並從中學習對於未來製定更加道德和有效的外交政策至關重要。
<<<<<<<<<<<
西方外交政策的陰暗麵
穆斯林 2024年2月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z3W4ijAvrQ
測量
如果你不選擇接受這筆交易，請記住穆罕默德·摩薩德在伊朗發生的事情，請記住薩爾瓦多在智利發生的事情； 還記得阿爾班斯、危地馬拉、ZM、越南和剛果的倫巴發生了什麽嗎？ 這些都是拒絕玩遊戲並在政變或暗殺中被消滅的總統或總理，我將揭露西方外交政策的非常黑暗的一麵。
現在我們馬上就會明白我的意思，我將播放 pbd 播客中的一個片段，它體現了西方外交政策可怕的黑暗麵。 他們不僅發動戰爭賄賂人民，它的意義遠不止於此，我們將看到他們邪惡的總體計劃是什麽，他們在南美和中東等地對這些地區進行殖民化。
不同地區和國家以及他們的計劃正是我們要去的
從某人那裏親眼目睹
在地麵上做這些事情不是
隻是一個陰謀論或
沒有事實依據地談論事情或
我們要向某人展示的證據
誰承認自己也是其中的一部分
但那裏有你所知道的一切
我國有非常嚴格的反腐敗法
當年的美國和我
我猜他們仍然是，但有很多
繞過它們的方法我們知道
所有這些繞過它們的方法讓你
進去告訴總統這個
你這麽說就買了這筆貸款，他
說但我們會解決這個問題
巨額債務，這意味著我們將
必須從教育中拿走錢
和社會服務和醫療保健
支付我們的債務利息
說是，但你 GNA 賺了很多錢
給你和你的家人錢，讓他知道
他正在做某事
可能不會幫助他的人民
但這會幫助他然後你
也說但是如果你不選擇接受
RO 這個呃如果你不選擇的話
接受這筆交易記住發生了什麽
給伊朗的穆罕默德·摩薩德記得什麽
發生在智利的薩爾瓦多·安德身上
記住阿爾班斯發生了什麽事
危地馬拉和 ZM 以及越南和倫巴
在剛果，這些都是總統或
拒絕參加比賽的首相
遊戲並在政變中被淘汰或
暗殺，所以基本上我們是
說記住有我們打電話給的人
基本上，豺狼在幕後
說嘿，總統先生，我在這手上
為你提供很多錢並且
你的朋友，但如果你選擇的話
不要把它拿在手裏我有一把槍
我實際上並沒有帶槍，但我知道
那些人基本上都是中央情報局的資產
我身後有槍，你知道
經典案例 最初的案例是
克米特·羅斯福誰穿越了
伊朗總理莫斯克並被替換
他帶著煞神，這就是設定
先例和這些總統都知道
他們知道他們知道曆史
他們知道如果這樣的話他們會被帶走
那麽你知道帕特裏克的選擇是什麽
你會怎麽做這個人是約翰
帕金斯他寫了一本書，叫做
經濟殺手，他是
經濟殺手長期以來
在美國工作了幾年，他的工作是
去這些外國
基本上是賄賂他們以達成交易
說好的，我們可以這樣做
引用 unquote 改善你的經濟
並且會有優惠提供給
這些國家和這些外國
領導人 總統 首相 國王
等等，如果他們選擇不聽
他們或接受他們的交易 他做了什麽
說他們會被殺，他們會
被其他人取代
願意聽從西方的命令
美國和英國等國家
法國和所有這些不同的國家
他們做這些事已經很久了
時間到了，我們看到一個人約翰·帕金斯
一位經濟殺手寫了一篇
整本書演示和解釋
他過去所做的事情的細節以及
他說看我沒帶槍
我的手，但我會告訴這些人
他們清楚地知道會發生什麽
如果他們拒絕接受我的交易但是
無論如何，讓我們進一步聽聽他
更詳細一點讓我問一下
當你這麽說的時候你好嗎
對我這麽說就像我了解你一樣
剛才說了，你怎麽說
如果我是伊朗貧民，而你是
和我坐在一起，你告訴我
這是選項讓我如果你如果你
可以和我一起進行角色扮演嗎？
就像你首先會怎麽說
一切都與 sh 我們沒有，我們沒有玩
相當不錯的比賽，因為他有很多
錢他不必借給我們
隻是想讓他相信他
他應該與我們合作，而不是與
蘇聯他應該讓你知道
我們想要他的石油並且我們願意
幫助他使他的國家西化，我們
不想 他不想去
蘇聯所以有點
不同的是我們會得到那一分鍾給
我就是你所做的一個例子
我在說什麽 假設我正在和他說話
你你是你你是你是你是
科利亞總統 好的，我們想要
在那裏獲取你的資源並且
我對你說我正在向你展示一切
這些精美的報告顯示了
你的國家將會這麽做，你也可以
向你們的媒體展示這些報告
你的人民 你可以說服你的人民
通過接受這些貸款，您
幫助你要去的國家
建造你要建造的這些大壩
建造這些大型電力係統
不管怎樣，你得到了你得到了所有
你需要的材料在這裏，就是它
通常是一係列會議，也許是一些
午餐時喝點雞尾酒
等等，總統可能會選出一個
很少，然後你就有點
突然開始談論你
你提出了發生的事情的話題
最近去了智利的薩爾瓦多或者什麽
發生在阿爾班斯和格馬爾身上取決於
你在世界的哪個部分
你談論這些人並說
你知道這不是一種恥辱嗎？
關於這個你知道一點
取決於總統不同
總統們，你的做法不同
但他們明白了 我的意思是他們知道
曆史你不認識這些人
了解正在發生的事情以及他們的顧問
知道發生了什麽，他們通常
開會時也坐在那裏
非常聰明的顧問，可能就是你
知道上過商學院也一樣
我去過的商學院等等
那裏每個人你都知道我我
說西班牙語，但一半的人
房間裏的人也會說英語
他們他們F你知道他們得到了
相同的背景，但我會說帕特裏克
我提到我在書中談到
兩位沒有玩遊戲的總統
呃民主選舉的總統
厄瓜多爾海梅·羅斯與國家元首
巴拿馬 OM
maros 他們非常正直
看到了我想要做的事情，他們
沒有這樣做，他們理解
他們所麵臨的危險以及他們
談論了這些事情並且兩者
我相信他們是被暗殺的
他們都被拿出來了
兩個差不多兩個多月了
彼此分開在
1981年，他們被帶出他們的
厄瓜多爾首架私人飛機配備 h
羅斯他的私人飛機墜毀得很厲害
可疑情況少於
三個月後同樣的事情發生了
奧馬爾·特羅斯，這些是嗎？
隻有兩個人能挺身而出
說我們不會購買這些交易
事實公開了一個重要的觀點
他們出去建立了關係
非常強烈的聲明，他們設定了
世界的榜樣，他們是
在這些飛機失事中被帶走
盡管從來沒有確鑿的證據
成立
因為在一場空難中 確鑿的證據
煙霧繚繞，飛機失事
私人飛機失事是最好的辦法
刺殺某人，如果你曾經
決定你想做的事
因為證據已經消失了
但在呃至少其中之一的情況下
這些案例 H Ros 是計劃的引擎
被送到 in in in 的一個實驗室
瑞士或瑞典瑞士嗯和
他們的結論是，這架飛機沒有
墜毀後它在空中爆炸了
所以嗯還有很多其他的
證據這是巨大的證據
這表明這些已經
暗殺所以你有它我
意味著他會講更多細節
采訪和討論確實是
令人著迷，但它暴露了真正的黑暗
西方外交政策的一麵
特別是美國他們
雇用像約翰·帕金斯這樣的人
誰是經濟殺手去這些
外國國家與他們坐下來
並說看這就是我們需要你做的
您需要接受這些貸款嗎？
會借錢給你，你需要做的
XYZ 與它，我們會幫助您
XYZ 據說如果你不這樣做我會
隻是提醒你這位總統
神秘地死於飛機失事
你基本上知道這真是太遺憾了
讓他們知道嘿夥計如果你不這樣做
這樣做你就是下一個，這就是發生的事情
也會發生在你身上，這不是
陰謀論 這是一個人
這實際上是他的工作
你知道人們談論的幾年
這些東西有時就像
陰謀論，但這是現實
當你看到某人實際上是
他的工作是聽從美國的命令
這種時尚使它變得嚴肅
現實現在我們應該如此困惑嗎
至於為什麽許多穆斯林國家和穆斯林
統治者似乎在合作
至少與外國的議程有關
美國、英國等政府以及
他們所在的其他地方
受到壓力也許他們受到威脅
我不知道所有的細節
每個國家都在發生但我想說
這以前發生過，我確信
目前很多地方都在發生這種情況
他們隻是回顧了這件事是如何發生的
伊朗和其他許多國家
這不僅發生在
穆斯林國家一定要說話
關於南方很多國家
基本上發生這種情況的美國
一種勒索權利的方法
這些外國資源嚐試得到
他們的錢基本上都花在了
掛鉤以確保他們做任何事
美國告訴他們這樣做，如果他們不這樣做
他們會以一種方式擺脫你或者
另一個，你換成
願意做自己的事的人
出價可能聽起來很可怕
陰謀，但當你看到某人時
就像約翰·帕金斯所說的那樣
關於這一點你意識到它不是
陰謀這是一個悲傷的現實
穆斯林需要團結起來反對這個你
知道我們需要找到一種方法
團結起來反對這一點，但顯然
第一步是教育公眾
到底發生了什麽所以我建議
人們觀看完整視頻並且
進一步了解約翰·帕金斯
pbd 播客上的經濟殺手不
我想推廣這個播客但是
如果您有興趣，請觀看此特定視頻
在閱讀方麵我推薦閱讀他的書
也關於這個主題，我希望
這個視頻教育了我的觀眾
你們更多地研究這些主題
並意識到這不僅僅是一個
這是嚴重的陰謀，我們需要
製定打擊行動計劃
那到底是怎麽回事
夥計們說我感謝大家的觀看
以及您持續的支持，但直到
下次安拉，我會見到你們所有人
再次
The Dark Side of Western Foreign Policy
The Muslim 2024年2月10日
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z3W4ijAvrQ
轉寫文稿
If you don't choose to take this deal, remember what happened to Muhammad mosad
in Iran, remember what happened to Salvador a yende in Chile; remember what
happened to arbans and Guatemala and ZM and Vietnam and lumba in the Congo. These are all presidents or prime ministers who refused to play the game and were taken out in coups or assassinations I'm going to expose a very Dark Side of Western foreign policy.
Now we'll see just what I mean by that in a second and I'm going to play a clip from the pbd podcast that exemplifies the horrific Dark Side of Western foreign policy. They don't only start wars bribe people it goes much deeper
than that and we'll see what their evil
master plan is what they've done in
places like South America in the Middle
East in their colonialization of these
different regions and countries and just
exactly what their plan is we're going
to see it from somebody firsthand who's
done these things on the ground it's not
just a mere conspiracy theory or
speaking about things without facts or
evidence we're going to show you someone
who admits to being part of this himself
but so there were all the you know there
were very strict anti-corruption laws in
the United States in those days and I
guess they still are but there's so many
ways to get around them and we we knew
all those ways to get around them so you
go in and you tell the president this
you say so buy into this loan and he
says but we're going to take on this
huge debt and it means we're going to
have to take money away from education
and social services and and health care
to to pay the interest on the debt we
say yes but you're GNA make a lot of
money you and your family so he knows
that he's doing something that's
probably not going to help his people
but it's gonna help him and then you
also say but if you don't choose to take
the RO the this uh if you don't choose
to take this deal remember what happened
to Muhammad mosad in Iran remember what
happened to Salvador aende in Chile
remember what happened to arbans and
Guatemala and ZM and Vietnam and lumba
in the Congo these are all presidents or
prime ministers who refused to play the
game and were taken out in coups or
assassinations and so basically we're
saying remember there's people we call
Jackal behind the scenes so basically
say hey Mr President in this hand I'm
offering you a lot of money for you and
your friends but in and if you choose
not to take it in this hand I got a gun
I didn't actually carry a gun but I knew
those guys were basically CIA assets
behind me that had guns and you know the
classic case the original case was was
Kermit Roosevelt who who over through
prime minister mosc in Iran and replaced
him with a sha and that was that set a
precedent and these presidents all know
this they know they know the history
they know they will be taken out if so
so what's the choice you know Patrick
what would you do this guy is John
Perkins he wrote a book which is called
the economic Hitman and he was an
economic Hitman for a long time for
several years for the US and his job was
to go to these foreign Nations to
basically bribe them to give them a deal
to say okay here's the way that we can
quote unquote improve your economy
and there would be deals offered to
these countries and to these foreign
leaders presidents Prime Ministers Kings
Etc and if they chose to not listen to
them or accept their deal what did he
say they would be killed and they would
be replaced by somebody else who's
willing to do their bidding Western
countries like the US and the UK and
France and all these different countries
they've done these things for a long
time and we're seeing a guy John Perkins
who was an economic Hitman man wrote an
entire book demonstrating and explaining
the details of what he used to do and
he's saying look I didn't carry a gun in
my hand but I would tell these people
and they knew exactly what would happen
if they refused to accept my deal but
anyway let's take a listen further as he
goes into a bit more detail let me ask
you when you are saying it how are you
saying it to me like I know the way you
just said it right now how would you say
it to me if I'm the shab Iran and you're
sitting with me and you're telling me
here's the options let me if you if you
could role play with me what would it be
like how would you say it yeah first of
all with the sh we didn't we didn't play
quite that game because he had plenty of
money he didn't have to take a loan we
were just trying to convince him that he
he ought to work with us rather than the
Soviet Union that he ought to you know
we wanted his oil and we were willing to
help him westernize his country and we
didn't want he didn't want to go to the
Soviet so that was a little bit
different we'll get that a minute give
me an example of somebody who you did
what I'm talk let's say I'm talking to
you you're you're you're you're the
president of colia okay and and we want
to get at your resources there and and
I'm saying to you I'm showing you all
these fancy reports that show how well
your country is going to do and you can
show these reports to your press and to
your people you can convince your people
that by taking on these loans you're
helping the country you're going to
build these big dams you're going to
build these big electrical systems
whatever so you got you got all the
material you need here and and it's it's
usually a series of meetings maybe some
of them over lunch with a few cocktails
Etc and the president's maybe electing a
little and then you you just sort of
suddenly start talking about you somehow
you bring up the topic of what happened
recently to Salvador in Chile or what
happened to arbans and guemal depending
on what part of the world you're in you
you talk about these people and you say
you know isn't that a shame and you talk
a little bit about this you know
depending on the president different
presidents you you approach differently
and but they get it I mean they know the
history it doesn't you know these guys
know what's going on and their advisers
know what's going on and they're usually
sitting there at the meetings too some
pretty smart advisers who probably you
know been to business school the same
business schools that I went to and so
forth and there everybody's you know I I
speak Spanish but half most of the
people in the room can speak English too
and they they F you know they got the
same background but I will say Patrick
and I mentioned I talk in the book about
two presidents who did not play the game
uh democratically elected president of
Ecuador haime Ros and the head of state
of Panama OM
maros they had tremendous Integrity they
saw what I was trying to do and they
didn't do it and they they understood
the dangers they were taking and they
talked about these things and both of
them were were I believe assassinated
they were they were both taken out and
two almost a little over two months
apart from each other in
1981 they were taken out in in their
private planes in Ecuador first with h
Ros his his private plane crashed very
suspicious circumstances in less than
three months later same thing happened
to Omar teros and can these were the
only two guys that stood up to this that
said we're not buying these deals and in
fact made a big Point uh public
relations they went out there and made
very strong statements and they set
examples for the world and they were
taken out in these plane crashes and
although there was never a Smoking Gun
found
because in a plane crash The Smoking Gun
Goes Up in Smoke um plane crashes
private plane crashes are the best way
to assassinate someone if you ever
decide you want to do
that and because of the evidence is gone
but in the case of of uh least one of
those cases H Ros the the plan's engines
were sent to a laboratory in in in in
Switzerland or Sweden Switzerland um and
They concluded that the plane had not
crashed it had blown up in the air and
so um and and there was tremendous other
evidence it's tremendous evidence that
that that points to these having been
assassinations so there you have it I
mean he goes into a lot more detail
really the interview and discussion is
fascinating but it exposes a really dark
side of Western foreign policy and
specifically the United States they
employ people like this guy John Perkins
who is an economic Hitman to go to these
foreign countries to sit down with them
and say look this is what we need you to
do you need to accept these loans we
will loan you money and you need to do
XYZ with it and we'll help you out with
XYZ supposedly and if you don't I'll
just remind you of this president that
mysteriously died in a plane crash and
it was such a shame you know basically
letting them know hey buddy if you don't
do this you're next this is what's going
to happen to you too and this isn't a
conspiracy theory this is a guy that
this was actually his job to do this for
several years you know people talk about
these things sometimes as sort of
conspiracy theories but it's a reality
when you see somebody who was actually
his job to do the bidding of the US in
this fashion that it becomes a serious
reality and now should we be so confused
as to why many Muslim nations and Muslim
rulers seem to be in cooperating at the
very least with the agendas of foreign
governments like the US and the UK and
these other places they're being
pressured maybe they're being threatened
I don't know all the details on what's
going on in each country but I'm saying
this has happened before and I'm sure
it's currently going on in many places
they just went over how it happened in
Iran and there are many other countries
where this has taken place not only
Muslim countries to be sure you talk
about a lot of countries in South
America where this is happened basically
a method of extortion right to get the
resources of these foreign countries get
their money basically have them on the
hook to make sure that they do whatever
the US tells them to and if they don't
they'll get rid of you in one way or
another and have you replaced by
somebody who is willing to do their
bidding might sound scary it might sound
conspiratorial but when you see somebody
like John Perkins actually speaking
about this you realize that it's not
conspiracy it's a sad reality and the
Muslims need to unite against this you
know we need to find a way to actually
unite against this but obviously the
first step is educating the public about
what actually is going on so I suggest
that people watch the full video and
look more into this John Perkins
economic Hitman on the pbd podcast not
that I want to promote this podcast but
this specific video if you're interested
in Reading I recommend reading his book
on the subject as well and I hope that
this video educates my audience and that
you guys look more into these subjects
and realize that this is not just a
conspiracy this is serious and we need
to come up with a action plan to combat
what's actually going on with that being
said guys I thank you all for watching
and your continued support but until
next time inshallah I'll see you all
again
then
The Dark Side of America's foreign policy
Rishi Suri - Editor - The Daily Milap - India Dec 12, 2023
https://www.globalorder.live/post/the-dark-side-of-america-s-foreign-policy
America's past efforts to destabilise democratic nations form a complex and contentious chapter in modern history, reflecting a mixture of geopolitical strategies, ideological battles, and economic interests. The origins of these efforts often lay in the Cold War context, where the United States, driven by the desire to contain the spread of communism, engaged in various covert and overt operations in different parts of the world.
Charting this through history, the period following World War II saw the emergence of the United States as a global superpower. This period was marked by the ideological struggle between capitalism, represented by the United States, and communism, led by the Soviet Union. The fear of a domino effect, where one nation falling to communism would lead to others following, significantly influenced U.S. foreign policy.
One of the most notable regions where the U.S. intervened was Latin America. Operations like the CIA-backed coup in Guatemala in 1954, which overthrew the democratically elected president Jacobo Árbenz, were justified on the grounds of preventing communist influence. Similarly, in Chile in 1973, the U.S. supported the military coup that ousted Salvador Allende, a democratically elected socialist president.
The Vietnam War is another example where the U.S. efforts went beyond just destabilising a democratic regime; it was a full-scale military intervention. The U.S. supported the South Vietnamese government against the communist North Vietnam, leading to a prolonged and devastating conflict.
In Iran, the 1953 coup against Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, orchestrated by the CIA and British intelligence, was aimed at maintaining Western control over Iranian oil resources. While Mossadegh was democratically elected, his nationalisation of the oil industry threatened Western economic interests.
Beyond ideological reasons, economic interests often played a significant role in these interventions. Ensuring friendly governments could mean easier access to natural resources, strategic locations for military bases, and markets for American goods.
These interventions have had long-lasting impacts on the countries involved. They often led to authoritarian regimes that suppressed political freedoms and human rights. The legacy of these actions continues to influence the perception of the United States in the international community.
In recent years, there has been a growing reflection and reassessment of these policies within the United States. The acknowledgment of past mistakes and the shift towards a more cooperative and respectful foreign policy can be seen as steps towards addressing the historical grievances. America's past efforts to destabilise democratic nations were shaped by a mix of ideological fears and economic interests. While these actions were rationalised as necessary for national security and global stability, they often resulted in negative consequences for the countries involved. Understanding and learning from this history is crucial for formulating more ethical and effective foreign policies in the future.
馬可波羅世界的回歸：二十一世紀的戰爭、戰略和美國利益
作者：羅伯特·D·卡普蘭（作者）2018 年 3 月 6 日
https://www.amazon.ca/Return-Marco-Polos-World-Twenty-first/dp/0812996798
暢銷書《地理的複仇》和《即將到來的無政府狀態》作者對過去二十年美國外交政策和世界秩序的令人振奮的評估
“[卡普蘭]不僅成為外交政策現實主義的雄辯捍衛者，而且成為五角大樓尋求遠景的偉大戰略家。”——《華爾街日報》
十三世紀末，馬可波羅開始了從威尼斯到中國的長達數十年的長途跋涉，沿著歐洲和亞洲之間的貿易路線（被稱為絲綢之路）——這是忽必烈龐大帝國的基礎。 現在，在二十世紀初，中國政權提出了一條完全複製馬可波羅走過的路線的陸上和海上絲綢之路。
羅伯特·D·卡普蘭（Robert D. Kaplan）憑借數十年擔任《大西洋月刊》駐外記者和軍事記者的第一手經驗，概述了永恒的原則，這些原則應塑造美國在麵臨中國挑戰的動蕩世界中的角色。 從卡普蘭對特朗普總統的直接想法，到對與朝鮮發生戰爭時會發生什麽的坦率審視，這些文章是對美國未來幾年將麵臨的艱難選擇的有力思考。
讚頌馬可波羅世界的回歸
“優雅而人性化。 。 。 [a] 來自一位有著令人沮喪的準確預測記錄的觀察者的預言。”——布雷特·斯蒂芬斯，《紐約時報書評》
“這些文章對地理、政治、技術和經濟趨勢進行了真正開創性的、精彩的綜合和分析，具有深遠的影響。 《馬可·波羅世界的回歸》是羅伯特·D·卡普蘭的另一部作品，將被視為經典。”——大衛·彼得雷烏斯將軍（美國陸軍退役軍人）
“對世界事務的深思熟慮、令人不安但並非世界末日的分析不斷從媒體上流傳出來，這是一個很好的例子。 。 。 。 充滿了活力和洞察力，足以吸引讀者將其放在一邊，幾年後再重讀。”——《柯克斯評論》（星評）
“一場精明、有力、令人振奮的演講。”——Booklist
“本書收錄了國家安全評論員卡普蘭關於美國外交政策的十六篇重要文章。 。 。 。 對隨著環境變化而演變的深思熟慮、多層次的立場和觀點的概述。”——《出版商周刊》
黑暗麵的外交政策
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/books/review/robert-kaplan-return-of-marco-polos-world.html
《馬可波羅世界的回歸, 二十一世紀的戰爭、戰略和美國利益》
羅伯特·D·卡普蘭, 280 頁, 28 美元。
作者：布雷特·斯蒂芬斯 2018 年 3 月 28 日
20 世紀 90 年代：還記得他們嗎？ 這十年是從蘇聯解體開始的。 最終道指突破 10,000 點大關。 在此期間，我們取得了海灣戰爭的勝利、歐盟和世界貿易組織的成立、北約東擴、美國預算盈餘、北愛爾蘭和平、穀歌、巴爾幹半島的勝利以及（查爾斯·巴克利除外）一個堅定的世界 團結一致想要“像邁克一樣”。
美好時光。
或者說他們看起來是這樣。 1994 年，外國記者羅伯特·D·卡普蘭 (Robert D. Kaplan) 在報道巴爾幹半島、兩伊戰爭和埃塞俄比亞饑荒方麵嶄露頭角，他在《大西洋月刊》上發表了一篇頗具影響力的文章，警告“即將到來的無政府狀態”。 如果像弗朗西斯·福山所想的那樣，我們已經進入了一個資產階級舒適和民主合法性的“後曆史”時代，那麽這個時代的恩賜相對較少。 卡普蘭寫道，其餘的人“將被困在曆史中，生活在棚戶區裏，擺脫貧困、文化障礙和種族衝突的努力將因缺乏飲用水、耕種土壤和生存空間而注定失敗。”
曆史並沒有證明卡普蘭論文的各個方麵都是正確的——例如，巴基斯坦和印度並沒有分崩離析，盡管文章暗示它們可能會分崩離析，而且大多數人類福利指標仍然顯示出進步。 但他對 21 世紀世界的普遍悲觀態度現在看起來非常有先見之明，至少與技術樂觀主義者、民主推動者和全球化熱衷者的盲目樂觀預測相比是這樣。
這就是歡迎《馬可·波羅世界的回歸》的原因，這是一本不拘一格的文集，收錄了優雅而人性化的文章，其中除了一篇之外，其他所有文章都曾在過去十幾年中出現在《大西洋月刊》和其他出版物上。 卡普蘭的興趣廣泛：中亞的種族糾葛； 塞繆爾·亨廷頓的政治思想； 榮譽勳章獲得者的無名英雄主義； 朝鮮半島爆發戰爭的前景。 最重要的是，他著迷於地理對政治家和社會的算計、野心和幻想的決定性影響。
以地中海為例。 半個世紀以來，它不僅分隔了兩個大陸，而且分隔了兩種文明：基督教世界和伊斯蘭教世界。 然而，馬格裏布大部分地區政治秩序的崩潰提醒了數百萬非洲人，中海畢竟沒有那麽寬闊。 數千人在試圖穿越它時被淹死； 更多的人取得了成功，對我們過去認為的歐洲社會產生了累積影響。
卡普蘭寫道：“我們回到了一種更古老的地圖學，它讓人回想起中世紀盛期，其中‘東方’並不是從任何一個特定的地方開始的，因為區域重疊並且定義更加模糊。” “東方和西方的二分法正在全世界瓦解，盡管微妙的差別繼續存在。”
地中海盆地的情況在其他地方也同樣如此——並且以其他方式發生。 俄羅斯 2014 年入侵烏克蘭（以及西方事實上的默許）是冷戰後國家邊界脆弱性的最明顯證據。
但俄羅斯在保加利亞等地秘密兜售影響力又如何呢？ 或通過《今日俄羅斯》“新聞”頻道公然兜售影響力； 或者通過 Twitter 和 Facebook 進行網絡行動來擾亂和破壞西方選舉？
冷戰結束後，我們許多人天真地認為，通信革命將成為西方向世界其他地區傳播其價值觀、態度和品味的工具。 我們忘記了這場革命也朝著相反的方向發展：每一位在開羅為政治自由化而奮鬥的穀歌高管，也可能有一位在西方被疏遠的年輕伊斯蘭主義者，通過閱讀基地組織的精明在線書籍《Inspire》來學習如何製造炸彈。 雜誌。
卡普蘭從未忽視這種流動性：“由於技術的進步，世界實際上變得越小，”他寫道，“它似乎越具有滲透性、複雜性和壓倒性，無數看似棘手的危機相互交織。”
這就是世界的現實——扭曲的、出乎意料的、諷刺的、常常是悲劇的——它導致卡普蘭走向他的大寫R現實主義外交政策傾向。 這是他在章節長度中探討的主題
亨利·基辛格、亨廷頓和芝加哥大學的約翰·J·米爾斯海默（其 2001 年的代表作《大國政治的悲劇》，後來被他帶有傾向性和偏執的長篇大論《以色列遊說與美國外交政策》所掩蓋）的人物簡介 與斯蒂芬·M·沃爾特 (Stephen M. Walt) 合著）。
卡普蘭明確表示，現實主義在最好的情況下為美國政治家提供了一條介於基辛格曾經所說的“過度承諾與孤立之間的災難性搖擺”之間的中間道路。 這就是尼克鬆政府尋求以一種既保留美國作為可靠盟友的聲譽，又確保權力平衡（通過向中國開放）的方式退出越南的指導方針，這將有助於美國渡過難關。 冷戰。
卡普蘭認為基辛格願意以令美國道德自由主義者感到憤慨的方式來做這件事，這是非常好的。 “確保一個國家的生存有時會導致私人道德幾乎沒有可悲的餘地，”他認為。 “認識到違反這種道德的必要性、采取相應行動並為自己的行為承擔責任的少數人，是他們國家最需要的領導人之一，盡管他們在幾代善意的知識分子中引起了極大的不安，他們沒有 現實世界官僚責任的負擔，做出抽象的選擇，並將道德視為一種不靈活的絕對。”
這一觀察有很多道理：外交政策不僅僅是道德的一個子集。 然而現實主義也有其實踐者無法認識到的局限性。 如果它對我們在越南和伊拉克進行國家建設活動時過度使用理想主義提出了強有力的警告，那麽它也可能使政治家們無法抓住機會。 許多現實主義者對羅納德·裏根相信冷戰能夠獲勝的信念感到震驚。 事實證明他是對的，部分原因是他比他們更了解反共產主義鬥爭的道德層麵； 部分原因是，有時確實有理由保持樂觀。
現實主義者也可能無法掌握意識形態塑造國家行為的力量，而這種力量往往會扭曲或無視自己的利益。 例如，伊朗沒有合理的理由威脅以色列，因為它與以色列有著古老的文化紐帶和當前的敵人。 然而，德黑蘭威脅以色列是出於神學信念，不管現實政治如何。 正是許多所謂現實主義的理性主義破壞了其理解世界真相的主張。
卡普蘭明白了這一點：“莎士比亞的學生，”他寫道，“早在國際關係專家之前就掌握了弗拉基米爾·普京的性格。” 地理可能是地緣政治不可改變的事實，但地緣政治仍然是政治，因此也是一個人類的故事。
這使得卡普蘭關於新烏托邦主義危險的最後一章更加令人毛骨悚然。 我們可能認為我們已經把奧威爾的“老大哥”拋在了身後，但導致法西斯主義和共產主義產生的心理狀況今天仍然存在於我們身邊。 “一些布道、博客或推文像病毒一樣傳播，這本身就是對 21 世紀個人主義現狀的悲慘反思，”他說。 “電子群是對孤獨的否定，為新的極權主義意識形態鋪平了道路。”
這是來自一位有著令人沮喪的準確預測記錄的觀察者的黑暗預言。 當談到抑製我們的熱情時，卡普蘭的成就是用如此多的熱情投下如此多的陰影。
布雷特·斯蒂芬斯是《泰晤士報》的專欄作家。
The Return of Marco Polo's World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-first Century
By Robert D. Kaplan (Author) March 6 2018
https://www.amazon.ca/Return-Marco-Polos-World-Twenty-first/dp/0812996798
A bracing assessment of U.S. foreign policy and world disorder over the past two decades from the bestselling author of The Revenge of Geography and The Coming Anarchy
“[Kaplan] has emerged not only as an eloquent defender of foreign-policy realism but as a grand strategist to whom the Pentagon turns for a tour d’horizon.”—The Wall Street Journal
In the late thirteenth century, Marco Polo began a decades-long trek from Venice to China along the trade route between Europe and Asia known as the Silk Road—a foundation of Kublai Khan’s sprawling empire. Now, in the early twenty-first century, the Chinese regime has proposed a land-and-maritime Silk Road that duplicates exactly the route Marco Polo traveled.
Drawing on decades of firsthand experience as a foreign correspondent and military embed for The Atlantic, Robert D. Kaplan outlines the timeless principles that should shape America’s role in a turbulent world that encompasses the Chinese challenge. From Kaplan’s immediate thoughts on President Trump to a frank examination of what will happen in the event of war with North Korea, these essays are a vigorous reckoning with the difficult choices the United States will face in the years ahead.
Praise for The Return of Marco Polo’s World
“Elegant and humane . . . [a] prophecy from an observer with a depressingly accurate record of predictions.”—Bret Stephens, The New York Times Book Review
“These essays constitute a truly pathbreaking, brilliant synthesis and analysis of geographic, political, technological, and economic trends with far-reaching consequences. The Return of Marco Polo’s World is another work by Robert D. Kaplan that will be regarded as a classic.”—General David Petraeus (U.S. Army, Ret.)
“Thoughtful, unsettling, but not apocalyptic analyses of world affairs flow steadily off the presses, and this is a superior example. . . . Presented with enough verve and insight to tempt readers to set it aside to reread in a few years.”—Kirkus Review (starred review)
“An astute, powerfully stated, and bracing presentation.”—Booklist
“This volume compiles sixteen major essays on America’s foreign policy from national security commentator Kaplan. . . . An overview of thoughtful, multilayered positions and perspectives evolving through changing circumstances.”—Publishers Weekly
Foreign Policy From the Dark Side
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/28/books/review/robert-kaplan-return-of-marco-polos-world.html
THE RETURN OF MARCO POLO'S WORLD
War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century
By Robert D. Kaplan
280 pp. Random House. $28.
President Reagan with Henry Kissinger and other officials past and present, October 1981.Credit...Bettmann
When you purchase an independently reviewed book through our site, we earn an affiliate commission.
THE RETURN OF MARCO POLO'S WORLD
War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century
By Robert D. Kaplan
280 pp. Random House. $28.
The 1990s: Remember them? The decade began with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It ended with the Dow bursting past the 10,000 mark. In between, we got victory in the gulf, the creation of the European Union and the World Trade Organization, NATO enlargement, an American budget surplus, peace in Northern Ireland, Google, victory in the Balkans and (Charles Barkley aside) a world firmly united in wanting to be “like Mike.”
Good times.
Or so they seemed. In 1994, Robert D. Kaplan, a foreign correspondent who had cut his teeth covering the Balkans, the Iran-Iraq war and the famine in Ethiopia, wrote an influential essay in The Atlantic warning of “The Coming Anarchy.” If, as Francis Fukuyama thought, we had entered a “posthistorical” era of bourgeois comfort and democratic legitimacy, it was an era whose bounties relatively few shared. The rest, Kaplan wrote, “will be stuck in history, living in shantytowns where attempts to rise above poverty, cultural dysfunction and ethnic strife will be doomed by a lack of water to drink, soil to till and space to survive in.”
History has not vindicated every aspect of Kaplan’s thesis — Pakistan and India, for instance, haven’t fallen apart, despite the essay’s suggestion that they might, and most measures of human welfare continue to show progress. But his general pessimism about the world that lay in wait in the 21st century now looks remarkably prescient, at least next to the Pollyannaish forecasts of techno-optimists, democracy promoters and globalization enthusiasts.
That’s reason to welcome “The Return of Marco Polo’s World,” an eclectic collection of elegant and humane essays, all but one of which previously appeared in The Atlantic and other publications over the past dozen or so years. Kaplan’s interests run wide: the ethnic tangles of Central Asia; the political thought of Samuel Huntington; the unsung heroism of Medal of Honor winners; the prospect of war on the Korean Peninsula. Above all there is his fascination with the decisive impact of geography on the calculations, ambitions and illusions of statesmen and societies.
Take the Mediterranean. For half a millennium, it mostly separated not only two continents but also two civilizations: Christendom and Islam. Yet the collapse of political order throughout much of the Maghreb has reminded millions of Africans that the Middle Sea isn’t so wide after all. Thousands have drowned trying to cross it; many more have succeeded, with cumulative effects on what we used to think of as European society.
“We are back to a much older cartography that recalls the High Middle Ages, in which ‘the East’ did not begin in any one particular place because regions overlapped and were more vaguely defined,” Kaplan writes. “The dichotomy of the Orient and the Occident is breaking down the world over, even as subtle gradations continue to persist.”
What’s true in the Mediterranean basin is true in other places, too — and in other ways. Russia’s 2014 invasion of Ukraine (and the West’s de facto acquiescence in it) is the most visible evidence of the flimsiness of the post-Cold War’s national borders.
But what about covert Russian influence peddling in places like Bulgaria; or overt influence peddling through the Russia Today “news” channel; or cyberoperations, via Twitter and Facebook, to disrupt and undermine Western elections?
After the Cold War, many of us naïvely assumed that the communications revolution would be the vehicle through which the West would spread its values, attitudes and tastes to the rest of the world. We forgot that the revolution worked in the opposite direction as well: that for every Google executive fighting for political liberalization in Cairo, there might also be an alienated young Islamist in the West learning how to build a bomb by reading Inspire, Al Qaeda’s slick online magazine.
Kaplan never loses sight of this fluidity: “The smaller the world actually becomes because of the advance of technology,” he writes, “the more permeable, complicated and overwhelming it seems, with its numberless, seemingly intractable crises that are all entwined.”
That is the world’s reality — crooked, unexpected, ironic and often tragic — and it leads Kaplan to his capital-R Realist foreign-policy inclinations. It’s a subject he explores in chapter-length profiles of Henry Kissinger, Huntington and the University of Chicago’s John J. Mearsheimer (whose 2001 magnum opus, “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics,” was later overshadowed by his tendentious and bigoted screed, “The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy,” written with Stephen M. Walt).
Kaplan makes clear that, at its best, Realism provides American statesmen with a middle path between what Kissinger once called “the disastrous oscillations between overcommitment and isolation.” This is what guided the Nixon administration as it sought to get out of Vietnam in a way that preserved America’s reputation as a reliable ally, while also securing a balance of power (through the opening with China) that would help see the United States through the Cold War.
That Kissinger was willing to do this in ways that scandalized moralistic American liberals is more than fine by Kaplan. “Ensuring a nation’s survival sometimes leaves tragically little room for private morality,” he argues. “The rare individuals who have recognized the necessity of violating such morality, acted accordingly and taken responsibility for their actions are among the most necessary leaders for their countries, even as they have caused great unease among generations of well-meaning intellectuals who, free of the burden of real-world bureaucratic responsibility, make choices in the abstract and treat morality as an inflexible absolute.”
There is much truth in that observation: Foreign policy is not merely a subset of ethics. Yet Realism also has limits that its practitioners can fail to appreciate. If it offers a powerful caution against overdosing on the kind of idealism that led us into nation-building exercises in Vietnam and Iraq, it can also keep statesmen from grasping their opportunities. Many Realists were scandalized by Ronald Reagan’s belief that the Cold War could be won. He proved to be right, in part because he understood the moral dimensions of the struggle against Communism better than they did; and in part, too, because sometimes there really is a good case for optimism.
Realists can also fail to grasp the power of ideology to shape the behavior of states, often in ways that deform or disregard their own interests. Iran, for instance, has no rational reason to threaten Israel, with which it shares ancient cultural bonds and current enemies. Yet Tehran threatens Israel as a matter of theological conviction, Realpolitik be damned. It is the very rationalism of much of what goes by the name Realism that undermines its claims to understand the world as it really is.
Kaplan gets this: “A student of Shakespeare,” he writes, “would have grasped Vladimir Putin’s character long before an international relations wonk.” Geography may be the immutable fact of geopolitics, but geopolitics is still politics, and thus a human story.
This makes one of Kaplan’s final chapters, on the dangers of a new utopianism, all the more chilling. We may think we’ve put Orwell’s “Big Brother” behind us, but the psychological conditions that gave rise to fascism and Communism are very much with us today. “The very idea that some sermon or blog or tweet has gone viral is a sad reflection on the state of individualism in the 21st century,” he says. “The electronic swarm is a negation of loneliness that prepares the way for the new ideologies of totalitarianism.”
It’s a dark prophecy from an observer with a depressingly accurate record of predictions. When it comes to curbing our enthusiasms, Kaplan’s achievement is to throw so much shade with so much verve.
Bret Stephens is a columnist for The Times.
