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沃爾夫教授：金磚國家的擴張是對美國主導的世界秩序的巨大挫折
https://openthemagazine.com/feature/expansion-brics-huge-setback-world-order-dominated-us-prof-wolff/
金磚國家新增六名成員，人口占世界一半以上，石油產量占全球 43%
烏勒克 NP | 2023 年 8 月 25 日
理查德·沃爾夫（Richard D. Wolff），美國經濟學家、公共知識分子和電台主持人
從明年 1 月 1 日起，金磚國家集團（目前由巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國和南非組成）將有六個新成員加入，這是一個響亮的宣言，表明新的世界經濟已經到來，一個不再是過去的經濟體。 美國著名經濟學家和公共知識分子理查德·D·沃爾夫表示，美國及其盟國主導了這一領域。
“現在，每個南方國家在獲得發展貸款、贈款、投資和貿易夥伴方麵都有兩種選擇，而不是一種。 兩者（西方和金磚國家）將爭奪合同和交易，”馬薩諸塞大學阿默斯特分校經濟學名譽教授、新學院國際事務研究生項目客座教授沃爾夫指出。
沃爾夫是哈佛大學、斯坦福大學和耶魯大學的校友，他表示這一發展意義重大，因為它改變了 1945 年以來的全球經濟現狀。 現在比金磚國家的 GDP 總和（在擴展到五個現有金磚國家成員之前）小幾個百分點。”
約翰內斯堡峰會上宣布的金磚國家新成員是沙特阿拉伯、伊朗、阿聯酋、阿根廷、埃及和埃塞俄比亞。 這意味著新金磚國家將占世界人口的一半以上，並且由於中東主要產油國的存在，其石油產量將占全球的43%。 埃塞俄比亞是非洲增長最快的經濟體之一，阿根廷是重要金屬的主要生產國，最近鋰礦開采業蓬勃發展。
《經濟更新》周刊的作者和主持人、“工作中的民主”媒體平台創始人沃爾夫指出，從長遠來看，金磚國家的崛起和擴張標誌著美帝國的進一步衰落， 美國資本主義在很大程度上依賴於這個帝國。 “美國全球經濟足跡的下降，美元作為央行儲備持有量的下降，美元作為全球貿易、投資和貸款貨幣的下降——這些都是美國角色減弱的跡象和症狀， ”這位曾在耶魯大學和紐約城市大學教授經濟學的資深經濟學家說道。
盡管與聯合國或世界銀行不同，金磚國家是一個多邊組織，但金磚國家的重點領域包括地緣政治和經濟合作。 金磚四國成立於2009年，由俄羅斯發起，南非於2010年加入該組織。其成立的目的是挑戰美國主導的世界秩序。 截至目前，已有40個國家表示有興趣加入金磚國家。
據路透社援引南非政府聲明的報道，阿爾及利亞、玻利維亞、印度尼西亞、古巴、剛果民主共和國、科摩羅、加蓬和哈薩克斯坦等國家表示有興趣加入該論壇， 主持了 8 月 24 日結束的金磚國家年度峰會。順便說一句，金磚國家於 2015 年創建了新開發銀行（NDB），原名金磚國家開發銀行，旨在“為新興國家的基礎設施和可持續發展項目調動資源”。 市場和發展中國家”。
沃爾夫表示，美國現在的經曆就是大英帝國和英國資本主義在 1945 年之前的一個世紀所遭受的苦難。 特朗普、白人至上主義的複興等等。 總而言之，這些都是美國不穩定的症狀。”
對於擴大後的金磚國家集團所麵臨的挑戰，沃爾夫解釋道：“金磚國家之間當然存在分歧、緊張和衝突（包括前五個國家，現在甚至更多的金磚國家）。 七國集團的情況也大致如此。 此外，兩個集團的國家內部也存在分歧：每個集團的領導層在如何參與新的全球經濟方麵存在分歧，兩個集團每個國家的雇主和雇員之間也存在分歧。 這些分歧將決定集團如何演變，就像不斷發展的新全球經濟對這些分歧的影響一樣。 當我們考慮到氣候危機的影響以及世界迄今為止對此反應不足時，一個簡單的預測是，一個重大社會變革的時代正在向我們所有人逼近。”
他還警告說。 “現在的一個關鍵問題是，美國是否會部署軍事手段來試圖控製或扭轉其衰落，或者七國集團和金磚國家之間的全球和解是否會成為美國的外交政策。” 他表示，美國商界內部的強大力量支持並資助寬鬆政策。 他警告說，那些渴望回到美帝國時代及其資助的美國經濟增長的人將推動軍事冒險，例如烏克蘭戰爭中的軍事冒險。
Expansion of BRICS a huge setback to the world order dominated by the US: Prof Wolff
Thanks to six new members, BRICS represents more than half of the world’s population and 43% of global oil production
Ullekh NP 
| 25 Aug, 2023
Richard D. Wolff, American economist, public intellectual and radio host
The inclusion from January 1 next year of six new members to the grouping known as BRICS, which currently comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is a loud proclamation that a new world economy is here, an economy that is no longer dominated by the US and its allies, says renowned American economist and public intellectual Richard D. Wolff.
“Every Global South country now has two options, not one, in securing development loans, grants, investments, and trading partners. The two (the West and BRICS) will compete to secure contracts and deals,” notes Wolff, Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and a Visiting Professor in the Graduate Program in International Affairs at the New School.
An alumnus of Harvard College, Stanford University, and Yale University, Wolff says that this development is momentous as it alters the global economic status quo in place since 1945. “The single key statistic cementing this situation is that the total GDP of the G7 is now several percentage points smaller than the total GDP of the BRICS (before expansion beyond the five current BRICS members).”
The new members of BRICS, announced at its Johannesburg summit, are Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia. This means the new BRICS will represent more than half of the world’s population and, thanks to the presence of major oil-producing countries in the Middle East, account for 43% of global oil production. Ethiopia is one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, and Argentina is a major producer of crucial metals and has seen a boom lately in lithium mining.
Wolff, author and host of a weekly programme titled ‘Economic Update’ and founder of the media platform ‘Democracy at Work’, points out that in the longer run, the rise and expansion of BRICS mark the further decline of the US empire and thus of US capitalism that significantly depends on that empire. “The declining global economic footprint of the US, the decline of the US dollar as a central bank reserve holding, the decline of the dollar as the global trading, investment and loan currency – these are all signs and symptoms of the reduced US role,” says the veteran economist who had earlier taught economics at Yale University and City University of New York.
Although it is a multilateral organization unlike the United Nations or the World Bank, BRICS’ focus areas include geopolitics and economic cooperation. Formed as BRIC in 2009 and initiated by Russia, South Africa was added to the grouping in 2010. It was founded with the aim of challenging the world order dominated by the US. As of now, 40 more countries have expressed interest in joining BRICS.
Algeria, Bolivia, Indonesia, Cuba, Democratic Republic of Congo, Comoros, Gabon, and Kazakhstan are some of the countries that have expressed interest in joining the forum, according to a report by Reuters that quoted a statement from the government of South Africa, which chaired the latest BRICS annual summit that ended on August 24. Incidentally, BRICS had in 2015 created the New Development Bank (NDB), formerly called the BRICS Development Bank, with the aim of “mobilising resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in emerging markets and developing countries”.
Wolff says that the US’s experience now is what the British Empire and British capitalism had suffered in the century before 1945. “The consequences of the US decline are already visible domestically in a strange and dangerous domestic civil splitting, the bizarre politics of (Donald) Trump, the resurgence of white supremacy, and so on. Taken together these are symptoms of a destabilising US.”
As with the challenges for an expanded BRICS bloc, Wolff explains, “There are, of course, differences, tensions, and conflicts among the BRICS (both the first five and now even more among the additions to come). Much the same is true among the G7. Then too there are splits within countries in both blocs: splits in each blocs’ leaderships over how to engage in this new global economy and also splits between employers and employees within each country in both blocs. These splits will shape how the blocs evolve every bit as much as the evolving new global economy will influence those splits. When one adds to all that the effects of the climate crisis and the world’s inadequate response to that so far, the easy prediction is that a time of major social change is bearing down on us all.”
He also cautions. “One key question now is whether the US will deploy military means to try to control or reverse its decline or whether a global accommodation between the G7 and the BRICS will become US foreign policy.” According to him, strong forces within the US business community favour and fund movement toward accommodation. Those desperate for a return to the times of the US Empire and the US economic growth it funded will push toward military adventures such as those in play in the Ukraine War, he warns.
