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尼日爾政變：西非民主的試金石
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66364872
作者：Yusuf Akinpelu BBC 新聞，拉各斯 2023年8月2日
尼日利亞總統博拉·蒂努布就職典禮 - 2023年5月29日，地區超級大國尼日利亞的總統博拉·蒂努布將尼日爾境內的政變視為西非民主的試金石。
僅僅三周前，他就任西非國家經濟共同體主席，但當尼日爾軍方奪取政權時，他麵臨著重大的外交政策挑戰。尼日爾是打擊在西非大部分地區肆虐的激進伊斯蘭分子的戰略盟友。
蒂努布先生在五月就任尼日利亞總統時曾對布基納法索、馬裏和幾內亞的政變表示擔憂，稱西非經共體需要加強其地區力量，以防止進一步政變並打擊武裝分子。
因此，當尼日爾總統穆罕默德·巴祖姆上周被總統衛隊推翻時，他迅速做出反應，周日在他的總統別墅召開了西非領導人峰會。
該地區集團同意對尼日爾實施製裁。 據尼日爾電力公司稱，這導致尼日爾首都尼亞美和其他主要城市停電，尼日利亞已切斷供應。
西非經共體還向尼日爾軍政府發出最後通牒——在一周內將權力交還給當選總統，否則西非經共體將采取“恢複憲法秩序所需的一切措施”。
他們的聲明補充說，“此類措施可能包括使用武力”，軍事領導人將“立即”會麵。
盡管蒂努布先生自己在二月份總統選舉中的勝利在法庭上受到反對派候選人的質疑，他們聲稱結果被操縱，但他將自己定位為一名參加過 20 世紀 80 年代尼日利亞反對軍事統治運動的民主人士。
安全研究所 (ISS) 的尼日利亞分析師沃勒·奧傑瓦勒 (Wole Ojewale) 表示：“我認為他認為這次政變是對其民主資格的侮辱，尤其是在他擔任西非國家經濟共同體主席的時候。”
更關鍵的是，政變對尼日利亞有直接影響。 兩國擁有綿延超過 1,500 公裏（930 英裏）的邊界，兩國之間有著牢固的文化和貿易聯係，其曆史可以追溯到前殖民時代，當時兩國的大部分地區都是索科托哈裏發國的一部分。
他們的安全也是相互交織的。 激進伊斯蘭組織“博科聖地”在這兩個國家發動襲擊，並派出一支由尼日利亞、尼日爾、乍得和喀麥隆軍隊組成的軍隊與他們作戰。 該部隊的“戰略和技術夥伴”包括英國、美國和法國，後兩國在尼日爾設有軍事基地。
雖然尼日爾到2022年的鈾產量約占全球的4%，但它是世界第七大鈾生產國，並擁有非洲品位最高的鈾礦。
西非經共體及其西方合作夥伴都不希望這些用於民用和軍事環境的放射性材料落入壞人之手，該地區伊斯蘭激進分子活躍，俄羅斯和瓦格納雇傭軍集團正在擴大影響力。
2023 年 7 月 30 日，一名支持者手持尼日爾將軍阿卜杜拉哈曼·蒂亞尼 。bdourahamane Tiani) 的照片，他是強大的總統衛隊隊長，與其他人一起集會支持尼日爾軍政府，2023 年 7 月 30 日
尼日爾首都尼亞美數千人集會支持政變，政變後，馬裏和布基納法索轉向俄羅斯，尼日爾軍政府給人的印象是他們可能會朝同一方向發展。
乍得領導人穆罕默德·伊德裏斯·代比·伊特諾 (Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno) 周日前往尼日爾，敦促軍政府聽取西非國家經濟共同體的最後通牒。2021 年，他的父親被叛軍殺害，隨後由自己的軍隊上台。
乍得不是該地區集團的成員，但代比先生周日早些時候出席了該地區的會議。 作為一名軍事強人，他被認為是與政變領導人建立融洽關係並敦促他們下台的理想人選。
但軍政府迄今拒絕了。
相反，它加強了針對西方和西非經共體的言論，數千名其支持者周日走上尼日爾首都尼亞美街頭支持政變。 其中一些人襲擊了法國大使館，並揮舞著親俄旗幟。
但尚不清楚軍事接管是否在尼日爾得到多數人的支持——根據受人尊敬的研究組織 Afrobarometer 2022 年的一項調查，超過一半的尼日爾公民對民主在尼日爾的運作方式感到滿意。
在接受調查的 36 個非洲國家中，隻有坦桑尼亞、讚比亞、塞拉利昂和毛裏塔尼亞的民主認可度較高。
然而，三分之二的受訪者表示，當民選領導人濫用權力時，軍人可以進行幹預。 這是發動政變的人及其支持者經常提出的論點，以便為自己的行動辯護。
馬裏和布基納法索的軍政府警告西非經共體不要對尼日爾進行軍事幹預，稱這將是“宣戰”，他們將去捍衛政變領導人。 因此，軍事幹預可能會像滾雪球一樣升級為全麵衝突。
然而，西非經共體此前曾向包括利比裏亞、塞拉利昂、幾內亞比紹和岡比亞在內的許多國家派遣軍隊，要麽幫助結束內戰，恢複被廢黜的總統的職位，要麽驅逐拒絕接受選舉失敗的領導人。
這些幹預措施符合其維護“該地區和平、穩定與安全”的使命，盡管其部隊在某些情況下也被指控侵犯人權。
奧傑瓦勒不確定該集團是否有軍事能力幹預尼日爾這個位於撒哈拉沙漠邊緣的幹旱大國，尤其是當包括尼日利亞在內的許多成員國都麵臨著自己的安全挑戰時。
“他們擁有的少量資源可能會捉襟見肘，”他說。
尼日爾陸軍士兵在馬拉迪州尼日利亞邊境附近安全巡邏時休息，尼日爾軍隊是試圖削弱該地區伊斯蘭叛亂分子的地區部隊的一部分。
分析人士認為，雙方衝突可能演變成“零和遊戲”，並加劇該地區的人道主義危機。
他說：“將會有人員傷亡，因為會有人陷入交火中。”他補充說，通過外交解決危機會更好。
被軍政府關押的被罷黜總統的安全也存在疑問。 另一位分析人士賈法爾·阿布巴卡爾認為，如果西非經共體與軍政府發生軍事對抗，他可能成為“討價還價的籌碼”。
“讓[巴祖姆先生]活得好好的，符合[軍政府]的最大利益，”他說。 “如果他們殺了他，他們就會成為沒有任何合法性的全麵叛亂者。”
Niger coup: A litmus test for democracy in West Africa
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66364872
Aug 2， 2023
President Bola Tinubu, who is at the helm of regional superpower Nigeria, regards the coup across the border in Niger as a litmus test for democracy in West Africa.
Having assumed the chairmanship of regional bloc Ecowas a mere three weeks ago, he was confronted with a major foreign policy challenge when the military seized power in Niger - a strategic ally in the fight against militant Islamists wreaking havoc across much of West Africa.
Mr Tinubu had raised concerns about the coups in Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea when he rose to Nigeria's presidency in May, saying Ecowas needed to strengthen its regional force to prevent further coups, and to fight the militants.
So when Niger's President Mohamed Bazoum was overthrown by his presidential guards last week, he responded swiftly by convening a summit of West African leaders at his presidential villa on Sunday.
The regional bloc agreed to impose sanctions on Niger. This has led to electricity blackouts in Niger's capital Niamey and other major cities, as Nigeria has cut off supplies, according to Niger's power company.
Ecowas also gave an ultimatum to Niger's junta - hand back power to the elected president within a week or Ecowas would take "all measures necessary to restore constitutional order".
"Such measures may include the use of force" and military chiefs were to meet "immediately", their statement added.
Though Mr Tinubu's own victory in February's presidential election is being challenged in the courts by opposition candidates who claim the result was rigged, he styles himself as a democrat who took part in the campaign against military rule in Nigeria in the 1980s.
"I think he sees this [coup] as an affront to his democratic credentials, particularly at a time that he is holding the chairmanship of Ecowas," said Wole Ojewale, a Nigerian analyst with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS).
More crucially, the coup has a direct bearing on Nigeria. The two countries share a border which stretches for more than 1,500km (930 miles), and they have strong cultural and trade ties that date back to the pre-colonial era when a chunk of both were part of the Sokoto caliphate.
Their security is also intertwined. Militant Islamist group Boko Haram has carried out attacks in both countries, with a military force - made up of troops from Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon - fighting them. The force's "strategic and technical partners" include the UK, US and France, with the latter two having military bases in Niger.
While Niger accounted for about 4% of global uranium output in 2022, it is the world's seventh largest producer of uranium and has the highest-grade uranium ore in Africa.
Neither Ecowas nor its Western partners would want the radioactive material - used in both civilian and military settings - to fall into the wrong hands in a region where militant Islamists are active and Russia and the Wagner mercenary group are expanding their influence.
After their coups, Mali and Burkina Faso pivoted towards Russia, with the junta in Niger giving the impression that it could move in the same direction.
Chad's leader Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno - who was put in power by his own army after his father was killed by rebel forces in 2021 - went to Niger on Sunday to urge the junta to heed Ecowas' ultimatum.
Chad is not a member of the regional bloc, but Mr Déby attended its meeting earlier on Sunday. As a military strongman, he was seen as ideally placed to strike a rapport with the coup leaders and to urge them to step down.
But the junta has so far refused.
Instead, it has stepped up its rhetoric against both the West and Ecowas, and thousands of its supporters took to the streets of Niger's capital, Niamey, on Sunday to back the coup. Some of them attacked the French embassy and waved pro-Russian flags.
But it is unclear whether the military takeover has majority support in Niger - more than half of its citizens were satisfied with the way democracy worked in their country, according to a 2022 survey by respected research group Afrobarometer.
Only Tanzania, Zambia, Sierra Leone and Mauritania had a better democratic approval of the 36 African countries surveyed.
However, two-thirds of those surveyed said that military men could intervene when elected leaders abused power. This is an argument that those who mount coups, as well as their supporters, often make in order to justify their actions.
The juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso have warned Ecowas against military intervention in Niger, saying it would be a "declaration of war" and they would go to defend their fellow coup leaders. So military intervention risks snowballing into a full-scale conflict.
However, Ecowas has previously sent troops to numerous countries - including Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea-Bissau and The Gambia - either to help end civil wars, reinstate deposed presidents or to force out leaders who refused to accept electoral defeat.
These interventions were in accordance with its mandate to maintain "peace, stability and security within the region", though its troops were also accused in some instances of human rights abuses.
Mr Ojewale is not sure whether the bloc has the military capability to intervene in Niger - a vast arid country on the edge of the Sahara Desert - especially when many of the countries that make it up, including Nigeria, are facing their own security challenges.
"The little resources they have may be stretched lean," he said.
The analyst believes that conflict between two sides could become a "zero-sum game", and worsen the humanitarian crisis in the region.
"There would be casualties as there would be people caught in the crossfire," he said, adding that a diplomatic resolution to the crisis would be better.
There are also questions about the safety of the ousted president, who is being held captive by the junta. Another analyst, Jaafar Abubakar, argues that he could become a "bargaining chip" in the event of military confrontation between Ecowas and the junta.
"It's in [the junta's] best interest to keep [Mr Bazoum] alive and well," he said. "If they kill him, they become all-out rebels with no form of legitimacy."
