據歐盟專業媒體《歐洲動態》（EurActiv）23日報導，總部位設於奧地利維也納管理顧問諮詢公司Pantarhei整理的一份數據將匈牙利列為其「歐盟不穩定指數」（EU Instability Index）的最後一名，表示出政權最穩定，再往回推的話則是塞浦路斯、立陶宛、盧森堡和德國。
這項指數主要基於各國政府中有多少個政黨，以及在過去2屆國內議會任期期間，發生了多少次政黨輪替，而歐爾班在匈牙利的政治主導地位使他的政黨青民盟贏得了決定性的多數，在過去4次大選中，優勢議會席次鞏固了他的政權。
然而，上周歐洲議會批準了一項決議，指出匈牙利已成為「選舉專製的混合政權」（hybrid regime of electoral autocracy），不能再被視為完全民主。
而其他會員國，Pantarhei的分析表明，整個歐盟集團的政府都難以維持一個完整的任期。「這導致了一種看似一直在轉變的狀態，各國每個政黨幾乎一直處於選戰模式。這限製了他們回答重大、緊迫的政治問題的能力，」
這份數據指出了歐盟27個成員國中，有21個國家在最後2屆國內議會任期期間的發生政黨輪替，其中保加利亞政黨輪替了4次、奧地利和義大利政府政黨輪替了6以及羅馬尼亞的7次。 整個集團的政治動盪程度越來越高，左右翼的民族主義和民粹主義政黨的崛起，以及人們對左、右溫和政黨的支持聲量崩潰。
By Benjamin Fox | EURACTIV.com Sep 23, 2022
Hungary, where Viktor Orban’s Fidesz have been in power uninterrupted since 2010, is the most ‘stable’ government in the EU, according to new analysis published on Friday. EPA-EFE/MAX BRUCKER
Hungary, where Viktor Orban’s Fidesz has been in power uninterrupted since 2010, is the most ‘stable’ government in the EU, according to a new analysis published on Friday (23 September).
The data gathered by Pantarhei, a Vienna-based management consultancy, ranks Hungary at the top of its ‘EU instability index’, followed by Cyprus, Lithuania, Luxembourg and Germany.
Spain, Bulgaria and Italy, all of which have seen a combination of weak coalitions and regular changes in government in recent years, are ranked as the most volatile in their ‘EU instability index’.
The index is based primarily on how many parties are in the government and how many administration changes have occurred over the last two parliamentary mandates.
Orban’s political dominance in Hungary has seen his party win decisive majorities, with two-thirds of the parliament in the last four general elections entrenching his illiberal democracy model.
However, last week the European Parliament endorsed a resolution stating that Hungary had become a “hybrid regime of electoral autocracy” and could no longer be considered a full democracy.
Elsewhere, Pantarhei’s analysis suggests that governments across the bloc are having difficulty surviving for a full term. “This has resulted in a seemingly permanent state of flux, with parties almost constantly in election mode. And this limits their ability to give answers to significant and pressing political questions,” it states.
It points out government changes during the last two parliaments in 21 of the EU’s 27 member states, including four governments in Bulgaria, six in Austria and Italy and seven in Romania.
Increasing levels of political volatility across the bloc have seen the rise of nationalist and populist parties on the right and left alongside collapsing support for moderate parties on the right and left.
Italy’s snap elections on Sunday (25 September) are expected to continue this trend, with the far-right Brothers of Italy party led by Giorgia Meloni widely expected to top the polls. However, it is unclear how and whether they would be able to form a government.
“The era of major parties and the resulting clear political conditions in the EU member states appears to be over,” says Pantarhei, adding that “coalitions comprising three or more parties have become the new normal.”
Against this backdrop, the 2024 European elections are likely to pose another stress test for the establishment parties, with far-right and nationalist parties set to make significant gains at the expense of the centre-right EPP, Socialists and Democrats, and Renew Europe.
Pantarhei’s analysis argues that increasingly unstable national governments have impacted EU decision-making, making it easier for proposals to be blocked by member states but harder for the Council of Ministers to reach common positions, leaving the political initiative to the European Commission.
“The nature of governing has been changing significantly across Europe: More fragmented, more volatile. This also impacts the ability to establish pactability for fundamental political decisions in the Council,” Pantarhei managing partner Gilbert Rukschcio told EURACTIV.
The fact that the European Commission and Parliament are bound by fixed, five-year mandates also contributes to their stability and political influence.
[Edited by Alice Taylor]
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