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華盛頓郵報、外交學人刊發中國學者的俄烏深度分析
發布時間：2022-03-21作者： 王文
編者按：俄烏局勢複雜多變，西方對中國誤解頗深。繼3月9日在《環球時報》英文版刊發整版評論揭露“西方十大話語陷阱”、3月17日接受BBC專訪引起全球廣泛影響外，中國人民大學重陽金融研究院執行院長王文近期又連續在《華盛頓郵報》、《外交學人》、俄羅斯瓦爾代俱爾部官網首頁深度剖析普通中國人在俄烏衝突中的看法，其中主題為《為什麽不少中國老百姓惻隱俄羅斯》的長篇撰文得到西方讀者的普遍認可。以下為該文雙語版本、《華盛頓郵報》援引內容及瓦爾代官網截圖。
外交學人
文章發布於《外交學人》首頁
為何不少中國老百姓惻隱俄羅斯
俄烏衝突，引起了中國老百姓的網絡大戰。我觀察了幾個中國網站的投票民調，約40%中國人保持中立，約30%支持俄羅斯，約20%支持烏克蘭。這正是中國政府在聯合國大會上沒有支持製裁俄羅斯、而是選擇“棄權”的民意基礎。
那些支持烏克蘭、認為俄羅斯是入侵者的中國人，有很強的法理基礎。他們認為，烏克蘭是主權國家。選不選擇加入北約，是烏克蘭的權利。俄羅斯即使再不滿意烏克蘭“親西方”外交，也無權采取軍事行動。
然而，這些簡單的法理依據被俄羅斯的中國支持者們批評得體無完膚。後者譏諷前者是“美分”、“親美主義者”，“美國人對南斯拉夫、阿富汗、伊拉克、利比亞、敘利亞采取軍事行動，你們怎麽不說美國是入侵者呢？”在俄羅斯的中國支持者眼裏，大國都應享有更大的安全邊界。就像美國絕不容忍蘇聯在古巴部署導彈那樣，俄羅斯當然有權教訓“引狼入室”的烏克蘭。
國際關係學上的大國安全邏輯，隻是部分原因。對俄羅斯的中國支持者而言，中俄近20年來發展的戰略夥伴關係，是他們更傾向於支持俄羅斯的外交依據。更重要的是，中國長期以來受到美國對外戰略的遏製，使大家對俄羅斯的安全處境感同深受，進而對俄羅斯有一種天然的同情、理解與惻隱之心，更認為今天的俄羅斯受美國威脅的安全遭遇盡早有一天也會發生在中國身上。
俄羅斯受到安全威脅在中國社會產生共情，加之普京總統“硬漢形象”在中國有許多粉絲的現象，本身就代表著中國社會反對美國霸權的本質。
事實上，反對美國霸權的聲音在全球也很流行。此次製裁俄羅斯的國家，大約有40個，都是以美國為中心的西方陣營。包括巴西、印度等廣大發展中國家並沒有加入。我相信，發展中國家對俄羅斯采取軍事行動的看法，應該與中國有相同的邏輯。
不過，不少中國老百姓支持俄羅斯，不代表著中國對外政策會全麵倒向俄羅斯。更多的中國民眾希望保持中立。中國人更關切的，是這些突如其來的衝突會怎樣影響能源走勢、衝擊經濟發展以及對中國未來會有哪些長期的影響？畢竟，中國人此前從未想到過會有這場衝突。
更重要的是，多數中國人不明白，為什麽俄羅斯用半個多月都沒有取得最終勝利？俄羅斯有沒有更好的選擇？俄羅斯希望達到的戰略目標到底是什麽？
有這麽多疑問，不隻是中國人出於對俄羅斯安全困境的關切，更是希望俄羅斯能夠更早地、更好地結束這場衝突。在中國，油價在漲，股市出現震蕩，沒有人願意衝突持續下去。更有一些人擔心，如果過於支持俄羅斯，同樣會受到美國的製裁。
中國反對美國霸權，但中國不願意與美國的發生軍事衝突，而是希望用更多元化方式解決與美國的分歧，用更智慧的回擊捍衛美國對中國核心利益的侵犯。
在多數中國人看來，無論俄羅斯人采取軍事行動，還是澤連斯基領導下的烏克蘭全麵倒向美國與北約，都不算是完美的解決方案。當然，作為與普京總統有近距離接觸、也與幾位烏克蘭政要有交談的中國學者而言，我更願意試著努力理解俄羅斯與烏克蘭。
幾年前，有兩次與普京近距離接觸的機會。一次是在2015年G20領導人晚宴上，我作為智庫代表受邀，他站在我身後，排名依次等待土耳其總理的握手合影；另一次是在索契召開的瓦爾代俱樂部年會，他與學者們交談。普京個子不高，但很有氣場，對任何問題都不回避，直來直去，說話與做事都不含糊，是21世紀以來在世界大棋局上連續作局、下棋、對弈的全球級玩家！
對於北方的這個近鄰，中國人其實了解得太少，研究不夠。過去老一輩學者中，講俄語得還不少；現在，年輕學者中會俄語的廖廖無幾，能與俄羅斯智庫交流的中國機構也越來越少。
我連續四年受邀參加普京年年參加的瓦爾代俱樂部年會，與俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫有交談。總體感覺，俄羅斯民族擴張性很強，對於資源、國土、安全的需求比多數民族都更敏感，這就能解釋300多年來、從彼得大帝開始、與俄博弈的國家為何都對其忌憚的原因，也從另一個側麵反襯中國過去30年來夯實中俄關係、維護北方邊界穩定的正確性與重要性。
我也曾在一些國際論壇見過不少烏克蘭政壇，還與烏克蘭原總統尤先科握過手、簡單交流過，也近距離見過之前那位美女總理季莫申科。相對於其他歐洲國家的前政要，他們的派頭更大、前呼後擁的。這或許折射了烏克蘭政壇的腐敗與複雜。
烏克蘭是個悲情國家，國土麵積全球第45位、人口全球第33位。在歐洲，烏克蘭是俄羅斯之外的第一國土麵積大國。烏克蘭糧食出口一度排全球第三，資源稟賦在全球排在前列。但烏克蘭可謂是“壯漢的身體、丫鬟的命運”。
曆史上，烏克蘭從來都是依附在強國身上，先後被金賬汗國、立陶宛大公國、波蘭所占領，1654年與沙皇俄國合並。近現代還發生過烏克蘭大饑荒、切爾諾貝利事件等悲慘事件，充滿著悲情。1991年蘇聯解體，千年曆史的烏克蘭人才獨立。然而，國家資源卻像一塊蛋糕被寡頭輪番舔食，百姓生活每況愈下，從過去“歐洲糧倉”變成了“歐洲子宮”、“歐洲妓院”，妓女數量飛漲，毒品泛濫，艾滋病傳染病據報道超過1%。
烏克蘭這個國家最大的悲劇是，始終在歐洲與俄羅斯之間的搖擺，缺乏自主精神與戰略意識的民族英雄人物。那些高官都是一些演員般的政客演員，以致於民眾2019年幹脆選一位喜劇演員當總統，這真是無奈又可悲之舉。
在北約、美國的竄掇下，烏克蘭在安全問題上不斷挑釁，最後普京反擊。烏克蘭明顯是被美國、被北約騙了，成了他們打手與戰爭代理人。當然，我在中國國內發表文章，極力反對中國一些網民以譏嘲的口吻來談烏克蘭。
事實上，在我看來，這不隻是一場小規模、體係化的軍事戰爭，也不隻是一場美國為首的西方對俄羅斯的政治、外交、金融、貿易、貨幣、輿論等立體化整體戰，更是全民參與、信息爆炸甚至全程直播的戰爭。幾乎所有關注的網民都有帶入感、渲染式的方式觀察著這場戰爭。這決定了戰爭不會蔓延、不會惡化，全球網民成了另一個層麵的牽製力量。
在中國人看來，由於長期以來西方媒體散布假信息，以及烏克蘭媒體的親西方性，中國媒體更願意相信俄羅斯媒體。近年來，從特朗普對華經貿戰、科技戰、教育戰再到拜登對華發動的意識形態攻勢和在新疆、香港問題上對中國的打壓，多數中國人對美國政府、美國媒體的印象是相當負麵的。
所以，當務之急，就是讓美國、歐盟與北約遠離衝突。讓俄羅斯、烏克蘭的觀點正常地公之於眾，讓一切都回到和平、協商的聯合國軌道上來。這就是一位愛好和平的中國學者的真實感受。
以下為英文版
Why Do Many Chinese Feel Sympathy With Russia？
By Wang Wen
文章發布在俄羅斯瓦爾代俱爾部官網頭圖
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has caused a cyber war among Chinese netizens. I observed polls on several Chinese websites. About 40% of Chinese people remain neutral, about 30% support Russia and about 20% support Ukraine. These sentiments reflect the social basis for the Chinese government abstaining in the UN General Assembly vote on condemning Russia.
Those Chinese who support Ukraine, and see Russia as an invader, have a strong legal reason. They recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state, and that it is Ukraine's right to choose whether or not to join NATO; Even if Russia no longer tolerates Ukraine's "pro-western" proclivities, it has no right to take military action.
However, Chinese supporters of Russia have criticized these simple legal grounds. They ridicule those partial to Ukraine as "pro-Americanists" and dismissive of American military actions against Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria. In the eyes of Russia's Chinese supporters, all major countries should enjoy greater security borders. Just as the United States did not tolerate the Soviet Union's deployment of missiles in Cuba, they assert Russia certainly has the right to teach Ukraine a lesson.
The logic of great power security in international relations is only part of the reason some Chinese support Russia. The strategic partnership developed between China and Russia in the past 20 years serves as the diplomatic basis for them to support Russia. More importantly, China has long been restrained by the U.S. foreign policy, prompting a natural Chinese empathy for Russia’s security concerns and compassion for Russia. They also believe today's security threat from the United States will also affect China in the future.
Moreover, President Vladimir Putin's tough-guy image has many fans in China, and represents the essence of China’s social opposition to American hegemony.
In fact, voices against U.S. hegemony are also popular all over the world. There are now almost 40 countries sanctioning Russia, all of which are in Western camps in the U.S. sphere of influence. The vast number of developing countries, including Brazil and India, did not join sanctions on Russia. I believe the prevailing views of developing countries on Russia's military action likely have the same logic as those in China.
However, the fact that many Chinese people support Russia does not mean China's foreign policy will turn to Russia in an all-round way. More Chinese people want to remain neutral. The Chinese people are more concerned about how these conflicts will affect the energy pricing trend and economic development, as well as what long-term impact will they have on China's future. After all, many Chinese didn’t see this conflict coming...
More importantly, most Chinese don't understand why Russia hasn't won the final victory in more than half a month? Does Russia have a better choice? What is the strategic goal Russia hopes to achieve?
There are so many questions, not just because the Chinese are concerned about Russia's security dilemma, but also because they believe the earlier Russia can end the conflict, the better everyone will be. In China, oil prices are rising and the stock market is volatile. No one wants the conflict to continue. Some people worry that if they support Russia too much, they will also be sanctioned by the United States.
China opposes U.S. hegemony, but China is unwilling to have a military conflict or cold war with the United States. Instead, it hopes to resolve its differences with the United States by other means and defend China's core interests from United States interference with a smarter counterattack.
In the view of most Chinese people, neither Russians taking military action nor Ukraine under Zelensky's leadership falling to the United States and NATO is a perfect solution. As a Chinese scholar who has close contact with President Putin and has talked with several Ukrainian dignitaries, I am particularly willing to try to understand Russia and Ukraine.
I’ve met Putin twice in the past few years. The first time was the G20 leaders' dinner in 2015. I was invited as a think tank representative. He stood behind me and waited for the handshake and group photo of the Turkish prime minister in turn; The second time was the Valdai club’s annual meeting held in Sochi where he talked with scholars. Putin is not tall, but he has great momentum. He does not avoid any questions, goes straight to the point, and speaks and does things unambiguously. He’s been a standing global player in the world's big chess game since the dawn of the 21st century!
For this close neighbor to the north, the Chinese actually know too little and do not study enough. In the past, many of the older generation of scholars spoke Russian; Now, few young scholars can speak Russian, and fewer and fewer Chinese institutions frequently communicate with Russian think tanks.
For four consecutive years, I was invited to attend the Valdai club annual meeting attended by Putin every year and had a conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The overall feeling is that Russia has a strong national expansiveness and is more sensitive to the needs of resources, land and security than most ethnic groups. This can explain why countries that have played games with Russia since Peter the Great have been afraid of it for more than 300 years, as well as China’s strategic correctness and importance of consolidating China-Russia relations and maintaining the stability of the northern border in the past 30 years.
I have also encountered many Ukrainian political leaders in various international forums, shook hands with former Ukrainian President Yushchenko and had simple exchanges. I have also seen the beautiful former Prime Minister Tymoshenko at a close distance. Compared with the former dignitaries of other European countries, they have an extraordinary, galvanizing presence with many assistants behind and in front of them. This may reflect the corruption and complexity of Ukrainian politics.
Ukraine is a beautiful country but a sad one in many respects, with the 45th biggest land area and 33rd largest population in the world. In Europe, Ukraine is the largest country outside Russia. Ukraine's grain exports once ranked third in the world, and its resource endowment ranked well in the world. But Ukraine can be described as having "the body of a strong man and the fate of a servant girl".
Historically, Ukraine has always been attached to powerful countries. It was successively occupied by the Golden Horde Khanate, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Poland, and merged with czarist Russia in 1654. In modern times, it experienced tragedies such as the great famine in Ukraine and the Chernobyl incident. In 1991, the Soviet Union disintegrated and the thousand-year-old Ukrainian society became independent. However, its national resources are like a piece of cake being repeatedly lapped by oligarchs, and people's lives have gone from bad to worse. From being regarded as the "European granary" to the "European womb" and "European brothel," the number of prostitutes has soared, and drug abuse has increased. HIV/AIDS infections are reported to be over 1%.
The biggest tragedy of Ukraine is that it is always a national hero who swings between Europe and Russia and lacks autonomy and strategic awareness. Their senior officials are politicians like actors, so much so that people simply chose a comedian as president in 2019, which is a really sad and helpless move.
With the encouragement of NATO and the United States, Ukraine has continued to provoke Russia on security issues, and finally Putin fought back. Ukraine was obviously cheated by the United States and NATO and became their thugs and war agents. Of course, I have published articles in China and strongly opposed some Chinese netizens talking about Ukraine in a sarcastic tone.
In fact, in my opinion, this is not only a small-scale and systematic military war, nor is it just a three-dimensional overall war led by the United States against Russia in politics, diplomacy, finance, trade, currency and public opinion, but also a war with the participation of the whole society, an information explosion and even full-range live broadcasts. Almost all concerned netizens observed the war with a sense of involvement and exaggeration. This determines that the war will not spread and worsen, as global Internet users have become a new restraining force.
In the view of many Chinese, due to the long-term dissemination of false information by Western media and the pro-Western nature of Ukrainian media, the Chinese media are more willing to trust Russian media. In recent years, from Trump's economic, scientific and educational war against China, to Biden's ideological offensive against China and his interference in the issues of Xinjiang and Hong Kong, most Chinese have a very negative impression of the U.S. government and media.
Therefore, the top priority is to keep the United States, the European Union and NATO away from the conflict. Let the views of Russia and Ukraine be made publicly and freely, and let everything return to the United Nations realm of peace and consultation. This is the true feeling of a peace loving Chinese scholar.
華盛頓郵報
《華盛頓郵報》版麵截圖
在接受《北京日報》采訪時，中國人民大學學者王文描述了美國設置的10個“話語陷阱”，包括“中國樂於看到俄烏戰爭惡化”的想法、中國向克裏姆林宮提供了武器等。
“長期以來，中國一直受到美國的戰略遏製，對俄羅斯不利的安全局勢深表同情”，王文在接受采訪時說。
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