金融評論: 會滯漲（停滯性通貨膨脹）嗎

When Facing An Internal Economic Crisis, Launch A War!

 

 IAM3Down4Up 於 2018-03-30 14:26:46  

 

天朝玉：

你從哪裏看出stagflation coming our way? 

Last week, March 21’s Fed report:

“On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy havep continued to run below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have increased in recent months but remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.” Bear in mind the historical inflation rate is 3%. 

Higher expected inflation is usually associated with higher gold price. Why did we see gold price drop, not increase, the past week?

As for yield spread, it is narrowing, the yield curve gets flatter, but it is not inverted yet. 

We haven’t had such low unemployment rate (4%) since 1969. GDP growth is close to 3%. We are in economic expansion, far from stagflation : )  The corporate tax cut boosts capital expenditure, increases productivity. This expansion could still run for another year, if not longer.

 

大千股壇 03/30/2018