美國股市曆史中Nifty Fifty投資表現的學習思考

In the United States, Nifty Fifty refers to the historic benchmarking index that was used in the 1960s to reflect the stock index. It contained 50 popular large-cap stocks on the New York Stock Exchange in the 1960s and 1970s that were widely regarded as solid buy and hold growth stocks, or "Blue-chip" stocks. These fifty stocks are credited by historians with propelling the bull market of the early 1970s. Most are still solid performers, although a few are now defunct or otherwise worthless. The American nifty fifty is now defunct as it was subsequently replaced by the S&P 500.

Because of the under-performance of most of the nifty fifty list, it is often cited as an example of unrealistic investor expectations for growth stocks. - Wikipedia

隻要是對美國股市曆史有一些了解的人，都知道 Nifty Fifty ，股市投資者在投資過程中期望值過高，脫離實際是經常發生的事，從有交易所開始，這類的不理智行為就從來沒有中斷過，以後也不可能消失。一個最好的例子就是2000科技泡沫，因為這是發生在Nifty Fifty 之後，而且投資者整體都認可了在Nifty  Fifty中犯的投資錯誤，但是大家依然集體重複了之前的相同錯誤。

“股票市場充斥著一群了解關於價格的所有事情，但卻對價值毫無所知的人” — 菲利普．費雪(Philip Fisher)

Critics of Dividend Growth Investing love bringing up examples of failed companies. Polaroid and Eastman Kodak are two favorites. Sears and Kresge are popular, too.

And when a naysayer really wants to score comment-stream points with like-minded cynics, he or she will smugly ask a buy-and-hold DGI proponent: "Yeah, but what if you had bought the Nifty Fifty?"

Well, here's what-if: I'd be a multimillionaire, thank you.

Let's say I had $50,000 to invest 40 years ago. And let's say I bought $1,000 worth of each company in that famous -- some would say infamous -- collection of stocks. That means I not only got Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), but I also got stuck with the likes of J.C. Penney and Emery Air Freight.

And no, I haven't forgotten about the outrageous commissions that brokers charged back then. Erring on the side of "Yikes!" let's say each trade cost $100. That means my total investment on September 23, 1974 would have been $55,000.

We now know that Polaroid and Kodak stock went on to be worthless. Other eventual losers included Sears and Schlitz. Still others, such as Gillette and Anheuser-Busch, changed materially through mergers or acquisitions.

But here's the deal: There were some pretty nifty survivors, too.

 

按照今天的市值，這個投資組合的市價會在500萬以上。 Nifty Fifty 是作為一個失敗的投資案例寫進教科書的，基本上 ， 大多數人都會將投資失敗歸咎於股市和市場，很少有人會願意承認是投資者自己犯了最基本的常識錯誤。有多少人願意承認2000年科技泡沫，自己應該承擔最主要的責任，而且是犯了最基本的投資常識錯誤。大多數人想的隻是如果自己能出手快那麽一點點 ，。。。。。。

 

 從美國股市的長期投資回報率來看，在整個美國股市曆史上還從未出現過一個長期市場投資虧損的投資者。
以平均人口壽命，工作時間，薪酬收入為假設條件。
 

野花網友的養老金帳戶的實例說明大多數中產家庭的投資資產的平均值應該在二百以上，如果是雙收入，就是四百萬，事實當然並非如此。如果兔子網友使用了與野花相同的長期投資策略，他的投資組合現在也會有二百萬以上，一個長期市場均值回報率，兔子的投資回報將是他工資收入的二倍以上，實際情況是兔子剛剛把以前的損失撈回來。
 
在上麵的Nifty Fifty的投資計算中，投資組合從未賣出過一股股票，其中66%的股票清零了，即使是33%存活的股票的投資起始價位也是高估狀態。

在投資上，技術要從屬於策略，策略要從屬戰略，戰略最終從屬於信念和價值觀。投資失敗和成功的程度，技術層的影響其實很小，策略層的影響有限，大部分結果取決於投資戰略是否正確和基本信念的牢靠程度。但絕大多數人每天的眼裏都是技術，幾天換一個策略，從不思考戰略，永遠未曾理解和堅守信念。- 水晶蒼蠅拍 

Nifty Fifty 在投資技術上是徹底失敗，買入明顯高估的股票，也沒有任何的價格波動的交易，策略上馬馬虎虎，分散在50個股票上，沒有明確的重點，沒有任何投資分析的主動性，戰略上堅持了長期投資，複利投資。

One of my coworker is retiring end this year after working here for 20 years. He own two houses--one for primary living and one for vacation. He bought 12 stocks over the past 20 years. never sale any one. Now, his asset is over 3 M. Our company offer good benefit including health insurance for life. Pention about 100K per year. He will have a good retirement life. 二年前一位網友的跟貼。


這位退休人士在退休後的二年，投資組合大概又升值了一百萬（2018年大概也已經有20萬升值了），而他在這二年中可能什麽都沒做，也許連一次的股票交易都沒有。 毫無疑問，這是一位業餘個人投資者，他的投資方法根源於幾十年前的Nifty Fifty， 但是有改進。

比較有意思的是，在NIfty Fifty 的幸存名單裏，老巴投資過其中半數的股票，而且有幾個是老巴極其重要的投資，這些投資標的，在老巴參與投資的多年之前，就已經用正式的方式公諸於世了。

同樣的時代大家其實麵臨的機會都差不多，區別隻在於把握度。- 水晶蒼蠅拍