對自己未來3-5年的投資策略思考 二

成為高手必經之路: 大量針對性的刻意重複練習。  -   羅輯思維
 

在過去十年楊天南的投資回報對比上證指數是 +626.58%對比-10.75%，水晶是八年十倍，這都是 A股市場。 對比加國股指，過去五年年均複合增長率，我是32.83%對比8.85%。對於主動型價值投資策略者，市場股指隻是一個參考， 與實際投資回報成績的關係不大，特別是對采取集中投資組合策略者，關聯程度更小。
 

 

iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF

What I want to turn to now is the TSX index. I have statistics for this index going back to 1957, the start of the index. See my spreadsheet at tsx.htm. If you look at the TSX index, the number of 5 year periods where the average yearly return on the index was negative is 2. These are the periods from 1970 to 1974 where it was -2.13 and from 1973 to 1977 where it was – 1.64. This means that for all the 49 5 year periods, the average yearly return was negative twice or 4% of the time. This also means that for these 5 year time periods, it was positive 96% of the time. There was no time period in the other periods where the average yearly return for the index was negative.

For the TSX, I also looked at how much of the time the return for the various periods TSX return was less than an average of 6% per year. For the 5 year periods, the 5 year average return was less than 6% for 16 periods or 33% of the time. Looking at the 10 year periods, the 10 year average return was less than 6% for 10 periods or 23% of the time. Looking at 15 year periods, the 15 year average return was less than 6% for 2 periods or 5% of the time. Looking at 20 year periods, the 20 year average return was less than 6% for 3 periods or 9% of the time. There were no other periods when the TSX return average per year less than 6%.

I also looked at the TSX index like Spencer Sherman for periods where the index return over the period was negative. For the 5 year periods, I found 3 times when the index declined over the 5 year period. The total 5 year return from 1969 to 1974 was -17.2%. The total 5 year return from 1972 to 1977 was -13.6%. The total 5 year return from 1997 to 2002 was -1.3%. There was only one 10 year period loss and that was from 1964 to 1974 and the loss was -1.1%.

The other thing we should consider is that dividends make up 30% of the TSX's total return on average. That means that the TSX total return is really 30% higher than shown by the index. So, if you invest in dividend paying stock, you can make very decent return over the long term. We need to keep this in mind when the stock market plunges as it has been doing of late.

SusanBrunner
 

成功的人生和成功的投資還有一個相似的地方：

需要堅持不斷的去做大概率的事情，但是又要避免一些滅頂的小概率事件。－水晶蒼蠅拍

參考加國股市過去六十年的統計數據，今後五年，有非常接近100%的概率，我目前的投資組合會有正的投資回報率，有67%的概率可以取得8%以上的年均複合增長。以自己現有的投資能力合理評估，應該大概率的可以略微超越市場股指。所以綜合考慮，在沒有太過劇烈的市場波動的前提下，有非常大的概率，我的投資組合可以五年增長50%  - 100%。目前的投資組合的常規紅利收入已經較大幅度的超越了家庭工資收入，如果能夠在此基礎上再增加一倍，是一個比較理想的家庭財務狀況，要實現這一目標，不需要更多的資金投入，但是要維持市場股指均值的投資管理表現。簡單的說，隻要不主動的犯違背投資常識的錯誤，基本上就可以實現投資目標。這是個大概率事件。  

The market, like the Lord, helps those who help themselves.

But, unlike the lord, the market does not forgive those who know not what they do. 　-　巴菲特
 

 
FB 31.60%，GOOG 21.23%，NFLX 66.98%
 

加國市場比美國市場要小許多，也確實缺乏像FANG這樣的高成長的科技公司，但是這並不妨礙我在加國市場上取得好的投資成績32.83%.

最為個人投資者，資金量的小規模是會提供一些優勢。

“If I was running $1 million today, or $10 million for that matter, I’d be fully invested. Anyone who says that size does not hurt investment performance is selling. The highest rates of return I’ve ever achieved were in the 1950s. I killed the Dow. You ought to see the numbers. But I was investing peanuts then. It’s a huge structural advantage not to have a lot of money. I think I could make you 50% a year on $1 million. No, I know I could. I guarantee that.” - 巴菲特