股市小書生
價值投資
2011年，老巴印度之行的談話
“If you look at the typical stock on the New York Stock Exchange, its high will be, perhaps, for the last 12 months will be 150 percent of its low so they’re bobbing all over the place. All you have to do is sit there and wait until something is really attractive that you understand.”
“There’s almost nothing where the game is stacked more in your favor like the stock market”
“What happens is people start listening to everybody talk on television or whatever it may be or read the paper, and they take what is a fundamental advantage and turn it into a disadvantage. There’s no easier game than stocks. You have to be sure you don’t play it too often”
2010年，芒格的演講 ART OF STOCK PICKING
Here again, look at the pari-mutuel system. I had dinner last night by absolute accident with the president of Santa Anita. He says that there are two or three betters who have a credit arrangement with them, now that they have off-track betting, who are actually beating the house. They're sending money out net after the full handle a lot of it to Las Vegas, by the way to people who are actually winning slightly, net, after paying the full handle. They're that shrewd about something with as much unpredictability as horse racing.
And the one thing that all those winning betters in the whole history of people who've beaten the pari-mutuel system have is quite simple. They bet very seldom.
It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it who look and sift the world for a mispriced be that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time, they don't. It's just that simple.
That is a very simple concept. And to me it's obviously right based on experience not only from the pari-mutuel system, but everywhere else. And yet, in investment management, practically nobody operates that way. We operate that way I'm talking about Buffett and Munger. And we're not alone in the world. But a huge majority of people have some other crazy construct in their heads And instead of waiting for a near cinch and loading up, they apparently ascribe to the theory that if they work a little harder or hire more business school students, they'll come to know everything about everything all the time. To me, that's totally insane. The way to win is to work, work, work, work and hope to have a few insights.
How many insights do you need? Well, I'd argue: that you don't need many in a lifetime. If you look at Berkshire Hathaway and all of its accumulated billions, the top ten insights account for most of it. And that's with a very brilliant man Warren's a lot more able than I am and very disciplined devoting his lifetime to it. I don't mean to say that he's only had ten insights. I'm just saying, that most of the money came from ten insights.
So you can get very remarkable investment results if you think more like a winning pari-mutuel player. Just think of it as a heavy odds against game full of craziness with an occasional mispriced something or other. And you're probably not going to be smart enough to find thousands in a lifetime. And when you get a few, you really load up. It's just that simple.
這上麵二段話來自於老巴和芒格的公開演講，在他們的演講內容背後都隱含了一個共同的理論-”凱利公式“。因為我們參與的是同一個市場，如何在一相同的市場，取得不同的投資成績是每一個投資者都麵臨的挑戰。
老巴告訴我們，耐心等待，每年都會有機會用大折扣的價格買入優秀公司的股票。
芒格告訴我們，遇到好機會，要加大投資力度，一輩子隻要幹幾次就足夠了。
在加國市場，不需要太多分析，就可以知道加國銀行的投資價值，我們需要等待的隻是一個好價格。在美國市場，優質藍籌股比加國多10倍，同樣的，我們不需要浪費精力去做過多的分析，我們需要等待的隻是一個好價格。老巴告訴我們機會一定會有，芒格告訴我們當機會真的到來的時候，你該怎麽幹。
遵照老巴和芒格的投資哲學，在加國市場的2016年1月份，出現了地產基金的投資機會，如果我們聽從芒格的教誨，When you get one insight, you really load up, 就可以在六個月的時間內，從零增長到100萬，建立年收入20萬的投資組合，實現財務自由。對於普通人，一生中即使隻有一次這樣的成功投資，就已經非常好了，可以享用小半輩子了。
在地產基金出現投資機會的時候，加國的BNS銀行，Canadian Natural Resources Limited這些不同行業裏的長期佼佼者也同樣出現了重大的投資機會。我相信美國市場裏的機會隻會比加國更多，更大。
我們成功投資加國地產基金的投資邏輯， 可以不斷的反複使用在任何股票上，而且永不過時。同樣的投資邏輯可以在加國的銀行，保險，石油，美國的科技，消費，醫療等優勢行業中取得同樣的投資成果。
