空色一體
千江有水千江月，萬裏無雲萬裏天。
薩克斯：阿拉伯的青年與動亂
發自紐約——
其實早已有眾多因素促成了今日中東的亂局：長達數十年的腐敗與專製，教育程度不斷提高且經由網絡串聯起來的社會，以及飆升的全球食品價格。最後，整個中東地區（以及撒哈拉南部非洲以及南亞地區）人口數量的快速增長也帶來了巨大的人口壓力。(這是內因）
比如說，埃及的人口已經在胡斯尼·穆巴拉克的統治下翻了一倍有多，從1980年的4200萬增加到了2010年的8500萬。考慮到埃及是一個 人口主要聚居於尼羅河沿岸的沙漠國家，這個數字就更加使人驚歎。由於無處擴張，埃及國內的人口密度逐漸上升到危機的臨界點。首都埃及目前擠進了2000萬 人，城市內部極為混亂，居民接踵摩肩，基礎設施嚴重不足。
同時迅速的人口增長意味著不斷膨脹的青年人數量。事實上有超過一半的埃及人年齡低於25歲，而埃及跟世界上其他幾個國家一樣，正在麵對著極端艱巨——而且很大程度上無法滿足——的就業壓力，無法確保為這些青年人提供體麵的工作崗位。
就業的增長無法追上人口增長，那些勉強創造出來的職位又無法提供體麵的薪水。北非和中東地區青年人（15-24歲）的失業率高達30%以上。而這些沮喪的失業和半失業青年如今都湧上了街頭。
其實青年人高失業率的問題並不僅限於發展中國家。在美國，總體失業率約為9%，但18-25歲青年人的失業率高達19%。而這隻包括那些事實上 正在打散工或者求職的年輕人，另外還有一些沮喪的青年人直接就退出了勞動力大軍：他們不上學，不上班，也不去求職。這些人倒不會上街抗議，不過大多會最終 走上犯罪道路。
全球的勞動力市場如今早已實現了聯網。來自美國或者埃及這些不同國家的青年人必須與來自中國和印度的青年人同台競爭。中國那些低薪水要求但生產 力更高的製造業工人以及高質量的基礎設施（公路，電力，港口和通信設施）已經為全球競爭設定了新的標杆。相比之下，埃及，美國以及其他國家那些低技術工人 要麽提高自己的生產力來掙得一份體麵的工資，要麽隻能忍受極端低下的薪水或者徹底失業。
因此創造一份薪金合理的體麵職位就是形成國際競爭力的核心。這要求用更好的教育，專業的在職培訓以及完善的基礎設施來武裝本國工人。當私人部門承擔起創造大部分就業崗位的時候，公共部門必須為高生產力創造所需的基礎條件，而這是一項艱巨的任務。
隻有一個高收入地區為其年輕人和經濟做出了相對完善的安排：北歐，包括德國以及丹麥、芬蘭，挪威和瑞典這四個斯堪的納維亞半島國家。這些國家的公共教育素質極高，而青年人在由學生向職場專業人士轉變的過程中經常能參與一些實習課程，在這方麵德國尤其有名。
在發展中國家，主要的進步都來自於那些強調教育，政府大力投資基礎設施並認真實施在職培訓的地方，而韓國堪稱其中的佼佼者，極高的青年入學率和 青年的大量就業使其在一代人的時間內就從一個發展中國家躍升成為一個高收入國家。更重要的是韓國這一成就在中國周邊的那些激烈競爭的鄰國之間取得的。
相反美國是一個失敗的例子（除了那些出生於高收入家庭的青年以外），那些在富裕家庭成長的孩子無疑能得到良好教育並在取得學位後擁有良好的職業 預期。但隨著富裕階層成功迫使政府減免稅務以及政府支出削減，其他貧窮及工薪家庭的子女比以往更難以得到高質量教育，此外美國政府也未能提供培訓機會及足 夠的基礎設施。其結果就是貧窮及工薪階層的年輕人中的失業危機不斷蔓延。
北非以及中東國家應該向東亞和北歐學習，努力避免美國式的失敗，如果民主要在埃及，突尼斯，及其他阿拉伯國家生根發芽的話，改革派的新政府就必須將解決年輕人失業問題列為頭等大事。
中東國家應當詳細製定戰略去提升教育的質量和年限，投資於職業培訓，建立私人部門實習製度並發展中小型企業。他們還應當找出哪些是私人部門生產力發展所需的關鍵基礎設施項目。而兩者必須協同合作加深區域貿易整合，並因此建立一個更大規模的市場。
那些被趕下台的獨裁統治者——突尼斯的本·阿裏，埃及的穆巴拉克，還有時日無多的利比亞統治者卡紮菲上校——都從國家和公眾手中盜取了數十億美元的財富。這些非法所得的金錢應當被追回並投入到一個專門用以改善青年就業的特殊基金中。
此外，隨著原油價格上升到100美元/桶，海灣國家正享受著一筆巨大的財富。但他們也應當通過伊斯蘭開發銀行成立一個特殊基金來資助中東地區的 青年人就業發展。事實上，利用該區域豐富資源的最佳方式莫過於確保本地青年的生活可以通過教育，技能和高質量的職位而得到充實。
If democracy is to take hold and flourish in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere in the Arab world, the new reform-minded governments must make the youth unemployment crisis their highest priority.
By Jeffrey D. Sachs
NEW YORK – Many factors underlay the ongoing upheavals in the Middle East: decades of corrupt and authoritarian rule, increasingly literate and digitally-connected societies, and skyrocketing world food prices. To top it off, throughout the Middle East (as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and most of South Asia), rapid population growth is fueling enormous demographic pressures.
Egypt’s population, for example, more than doubled over the course of Hosni Mubarak’s rule, from 42 million in 1980 to 85 million in 2010. This surge is all the more remarkable given that Egypt is a desert country, its inhabitants packed along the Nile. With no room to spread out, population densities are rising to the breaking point. Cairo has become a sprawling region of some 20 million people living cheek-by-jowl with inadequate infrastructure.
Rapid population growth means a bulging youth population. Indeed, half of Egypt’s population is under age 25. Egypt, like dozens of countries around the world, is facing the extreme – and largely unmet – challenge of ensuring productive and gainful employment for its young people.
Employment growth is simply not keeping up with this population surge, at least not in the sense of decent jobs with decent wages. The unemployment rate for young people (15-24 years old) in North Africa and the Middle East is 30% or more. The frustration of unemployed and under-employed youth is now spilling over into the streets.
The problem of high youth unemployment is certainly not confined to the developing world, however. In the United States, the overall unemployment rate is around 9%, but among 18-25 year olds, it is a staggering 19%. And this includes only young people actually at work or looking for work. Many more have simply become discouraged and dropped out of the labor force entirely: not at school, not at work, and not looking for work. They don’t protest much, but many end up in prison.
The world’s labor markets are now interconnected. Young people in countries as diverse as Egypt and the US are in effect competing with young Chinese and Indians for jobs. China’s low-paid, reasonably productive manufacturing workers and high-quality infrastructure (roads, power, ports, and communications) has set the standard for competitiveness globally. As a result, low-skilled workers in Egypt, the US, and other countries must either raise their productivity enough to compete at a decent wage, or accept extremely low pay or outright unemployment.
So creating decent jobs at decent wages is at the heart of being internationally competitive. That requires equipping workers with a good education, strong on-the-job training, and supportive infrastructure. While the private sector must create most of the jobs, the public sector must create the underlying conditions for high productivity. That is a tall order.
Only one high-income region has done a reasonably good job of preparing its youth, and its overall economy, for tough global competition: Northern Europe, including Germany and Scandinavia (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden). In these countries, public education is excellent, and the transition from school to work often involves programs like the apprenticeships for which Germany is especially famous.
In developing countries, the main advances are found in countries that emphasize excellence in education, public investment in infrastructure, and serious on-the-job training. South Korea is probably the leading success story, with superb educational attainment and strong employment of young people having taken it from developing-country to high-income status within one generation. And South Korea has accomplished this feat in China’s intensely competitive immediate neighborhood.
The US, by contrast, is a case of failure, except for youth from high-income households. American children raised in affluence succeed in obtaining an excellent education and have good job prospects after a bachelor’s degree. But, as the rich have successfully pressed for tax cuts and reductions in government spending, children from poor and working-class households are far less likely to receive a high-quality education, and the US government has failed to provide for training or adequate infrastructure. The result is a growing youth unemployment crisis among poor and working-class youth.
The countries of North Africa and the Middle East should learn from East Asia and Northern Europe, and take pains to avoid the failures of the US. If democracy is to take hold and flourish in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere in the Arab world, the new reform-minded governments must make the youth unemployment crisis their highest priority.
Middle Eastern countries should elaborate strategies to improve the quality and increase the length of schooling, invest in job training, establish private-sector apprenticeships, and develop small and medium-sized businesses. They should identify key infrastructure projects needed to ensure private-sector productivity. And they must work together to deepen regional trade integration, thereby creating a much larger market.
The deposed authoritarian rulers – Tunisia’s Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, Mubarak, and soon Libya’s Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi – stashed away billions of dollars stolen from the public treasury. This ill-gotten money should be recovered and put into a special fund for youth employment.
Moreover, with oil prices back above $100 per barrel, the Gulf states are enjoying a bonanza. They, too, should create a special fund for youth employment in the region through the Islamic Development Bank. There can be no better way to use the region’s resources than to ensure that its young people’s lives are enriched by education, skills, and high-quality jobs.
Jeffrey D. Sachs is Professor of Economics and Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is also Special Adviser to United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals.
