關於油：簡單一算，還是把自己嚇了一跳

一輛車的一生：
100,000miles/(20mile/gallon) = 5,000 gallon gas ~ 21,000 gallon crude oil ~500 barrels of crude oil. （已經相當保守）

>600,000,000 passenger cars travel the streets and roads of the world today.
>50,000,000 new cars produced every year.

Oil needed for next 20 years only:

6E8 x 500/2 = 1.5E11 barrels for current cars （現車算一半油需）
5E7 x 20年x (1.05^20) x500  ~ 1.35 E12 barrels for new cars (5% growth annually)

So, ~ 1.5E12 barrels are needed for all cars produced before 2031.

Total oil reserve is 1.24E12 in 2010 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves)
（不是所有原油能有效開采，隻有部分原油有較高汽油轉化率）

結論：如果現行能源架構不發生根本變化，新能源汽車不能有效推出，考慮到美元貶值，十年內油價到上$300絕非危言聳聽, 這輩子見到$500/桶油不見得是長壽！