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你們都錯了!《科學》那篇文章的數據建議中國人誠信遠超其它國家

(2019-06-25 23:06:58) 下一個

最近科學一篇關於誠信研究似乎顯示中國人在世界的底部而激爆了中國網民:
中國誠信國際排名墊底激爆中國網民
http://cn.rfi.fr/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20190624-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E8%AF%9A%E4%BF%A1%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E6%8E%92%E5%90%8D%E5%9E%AB%E5%BA%95%E6%BF%80%E7%88%86%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E7%BD%91%E6%B0%91

分析一下實驗方法和結果可以得出完全不同的結果。

Science原文:
Civic honesty around the globe
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2019/06/19/science.aau8712

 

原文說了研究目的:"In this paper we examine how acts of civic honesty, where people voluntarily refrain from opportunistic behavior, are affected by monetary incentives to act otherwise."。研究結果顯示在上麵的圖中。從研究的目的看各國在圖中高低位置沒有什麽意義所以不存在中國人誠信在世界底部的說法。

實驗的過程是這樣的“After walking into the building, one of our research assistants (from a pool of eleven male and two female assistants) approached an employee at the counter and said, “Hi, I found this [pointing to the wallet] on the street around the corner.” The wallet was then placed on the counter and pushed over to the employee. “Somebody must have lost it. I’m in a hurry and have to go. Can you please take care of it?” The research assistant then left the building without leaving contact details or asking for a receipt.”

對於研究目的,原文有個邏輯說“Citizens displayed greater civic honesty when the wallets contained money, but perhaps this is because the amount was not large enough to be financially meaningful. To examine this possibility we also ran a “BigMoney” condition in three countries (US, UK, and Poland) that increased the money inside the wallet to US $94.15, or seven times the amount in our original Money condition. Shown in Fig. 2, reporting rates in all three countries increase even further when the wallets contained a sizable amount of money. Pooled across the three countries, response rates increased from 46% in the NoMoney condition to 61% in the Money condition, and topped out at 72% in the BigMoney condition (P < 0.0001 for all pairwise comparisons; table S9).” 

NoMoney的case是baseline說明這個reporting方法work的情況。Money的case相對於NoMoney的case說明錢的作用。中國人report率不論有沒有錢都是全世界最低的。但是錢對中國report率的影響卻是世界最大的。有money的report的幾乎是沒有money的3倍遠超其它國家。按原文的邏輯這建議中國人誠信遠超其它國家。因為有money時中國人更願意比其它國家的人付出更大努力去report。

Note-中國整體report率低有幾種可能因素。比如中國人一般人不一定用Email,不懂英語的更多,處理程序不完善,多一事不如少一事等等。這是中國人應該考慮改進的地方。

另外有人發現還有更多的原始/背景數據比如懂英語率拒絕率世界銀行的各國企業email使用等。(http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/currentevent/1784886.html

但是既然錢包一放就走人,這些“率”在實際情況下是有問題的,

 

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