股票還會漲多久？漲多少？

根據股票專家分析， 緩慢經濟恢複階段股票有上升趨勢。 研究發現可能會在30個月上升44％。 也就是說， 牛市可能會持續到明年底。2012 年是選舉年， 股票不看好。 Disclosure:  I do not buy stocks, but has mututal funds in 401k.

reference: Yahoo.com finance


--SLOW-GROWING ECONOMY

The economy is growing at a 2percent annual rate, according to the latest estimate by the CommerceDepartment. That's slow by historical standards and shows that the endof the recession 17 months ago hasn't translated into a robust economicexpansion.

Stocks have been in a bull market for 18 months,pushing the Dow up 70 percent since it hit a 12-year low in March 2009.That gain is larger than normal but isn't surprising considering thatthe rally followed the worst financial crisis since the GreatDepression. During slow recoveries like this one, bull marketstypically last 30 months and bring gains of 44 percent overall,according to Ned Davis Research.

Corporate profits are improving,and wealthy consumers are starting to make some costly purchases. Ifthe economy continues to improve, stocks will likely rise. But don'texpect large gains because the economy needs to grow 3 percent or moreto bring down the country's 9.6 percent unemployment rate. That'sunlikely soon because residential and commercial construction remainsweak, and construction fuels economic recoveries.

So what's aninvestor to do given this abnormal year? The best thing may be tofollow your long-term plans regardless of what happens in Washington.

"There'sno way to tell what's going to happen, or we would all be rich," saysPaul Larson, the chief equities strategist at Morningstar.