China's 60th Birthday: The Road to Prosperity
Sixty years ago Mao Zedong stood before a sea of people atop Tiananmen Gate proclaiming, in his high-pitched Hunan dialect, the founding of the People's Republic of China and that the "Chinese people have stood up!" The moment was marked with pride and hope. The communists' victory had vanquished the Nationalist regime, withstood the vicious onslaught of the Japanese invasion and overturned the century of foreign encroachment on China's territory. Moreover, Mao and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) came to power without significant external support — theirs was largely a homegrown revolution. (See pictures of the making of modern China.)
[穀歌翻譯]
Mao brought a vision for China that has resonated from the 19th century Qing dynasty reformers to this day: to regain China's fu qiang (wealth and power), dignity, international respect and territorial integrity. In this regard, Mao and the CCP positioned themselves squarely with a deep yearning among Chinese — thus earning their loyalty and the party's legitimacy. His successors have not wavered from this singular vision and mission. (Read "Where China Goes Next.")
Tragically, Mao's belief in restoring China's greatness and achieving modernity was inextricably intertwined with his ideological desire to transform China into a socialist and revolutionary society. Mao's social engineering continually convulsed China in unrelenting political campaigns. These movements disrupted productivity and caused horrific loss of life. Yet, despite the chaos, the People's Republic embarked on industrialization and stood up. By many measures, 60 years on, China has achieved significant progress toward becoming a major and global power. Mao may recognize it, but he would not be wholly happy with it.
As the People's Republic of China commemorates its 60th anniversary, it seemingly has much to celebrate. China is the world's most populous and industrious nation, is the world's third largest economy and trading nation, has become a global innovator in science and technology, and is building a world-class university system. It has an increasingly modern military and commands diplomatic respect. It is at peace with its neighbors and all major powers. Its hybrid model of quasi-state capitalism and semidemocratic authoritarianism — sometimes dubbed the "Beijing Consensus" — has attracted attention across the developing world.
This growing soft power of China was strengthened by the 2008 Olympics extravaganza, and the Shanghai Expo next year will similarly dazzle. The 60th anniversary celebration in Beijing on Oct. 1 will impress, if not frighten, the world with an arresting display of military hardware and goose-stepping soldiers. Less visible is the fact that China is the first major economy to recover from the global recession and, indeed, is leading the world out of it. (Read "Mission Accomplished. Now What?")
作為人民共和國的中國紀念其成立60周年之際，似乎有許多值得慶祝。中國是世界上人口最多和勤勞的民族，是世界第三大經濟體和貿易國，已成為全球科技創新，是建設世界一流大學的係統。它有一個日益現代化的軍事和外交方麵的命令。正是在與鄰國和各大國的和平。它的混合模式的準國家資本主義和semidemocratic權威-有時被稱為“北京共識” -已引起整個發展中世界的關注。
這種不斷增長的中國軟實力得到了加強2008年奧運會特備節目，以及上海世博會明年將同樣耀眼。北京的60周年慶祝10月1日將留下深刻印象，如果不是嚇唬，與的軍事硬件和鵝逮捕顯示加強士兵的世界。不太明顯的事實是，中國是第一個主要經濟體從全球經濟衰退中恢複，而事實上，是利用它領先世界。
China is on a roll, particularly when viewed over time. Visiting or living in China every year over the past three decades, I have had the personal opportunity to witness dramatic transformations. When I first went to China in 1979, vestiges of the Cultural Revolution were still evident: revolutionary slogans painted on walls and pockmarks on university buildings from bullets and howitzer shells shot by dueling Red Guards. Camouflaged, but just as evident, were the personal scars borne by intellectuals and officials whom I met at the time. I heard stories of beatings and humiliations, confiscations of personal possessions and loss of living quarters, and forced hard labor.
I then witnessed the dramatic blossoming of personal freedoms and economic growth in the 1980s, punctuated by periodic countercampaigns launched by neo-Maoists in the leadership. One could literally feel and see Chinese society come alive after its long Maoist trauma, only to have people quickly recoil when the conservatives in the leadership reasserted themselves. This seesaw pattern persisted throughout the decade, culminating in the dramatic Tiananmen demonstrations and their suppression in June 1989.
In the early 1990s, I again experienced China as a society traumatized, this time by the aftermath of Tiananmen. But by mid-decade Deng Xiaoping had reignited domestic economic reforms and China had normalized its place in the world after its post-Tiananmen isolation. Politics, however, remained frozen and the heavy hand of the state remained evident. Only during the present decade, in the waning years of Jiang Zemin's rule and under Hu Jintao, has the Communist Party begun to experiment with very limited political reforms. My discussions with those party officials involved with crafting the "democratic" reforms makes clear that there are strict boundaries to how far they will proceed.
Thus, when considering the totality of six decades, the record of the PRC is decidedly mixed. While its achievements have been momentous, so are the contrasts and contradictions exposed by those very same achievements. In many sectors, each reform breeds new problems and challenges. China has come a long way, but it still has a long way to go. See pictures of Remembering Tiananmen Square.
中國進入了高速發展，特別是在隨著時間的推移觀看。訪問或居住在中國過去3年每年，我曾親眼目睹的個人機會的急劇轉變。當我第一次在1979年到中國，文革殘餘仍然明顯：在牆壁上畫和凹坑從子彈和決鬥紅衛兵榴彈炮炮彈擊落大學建築革命口號。偽裝，但同樣顯而易見的，是個人傷痕由知識分子承擔和官員當時我滿足。我聽到的毆打和羞辱，對個人財產和住所損失沒收的故事，和強迫勞動改造。
然後，我親眼目睹了個人自由和80年代經濟增長的新推出的定期countercampaigns在領導毛派打斷，戲劇性的花朵。人們可以從字麵上看中國的感覺和社會來後，其長期毛派創傷活著，隻是讓人們迅速退縮時，在領導的保守派重新抬頭。這場拉鋸戰格局始終堅持十年，終於在天安門示威的戲劇性和在1989年6月鎮壓。
在1990年代初，我再次經曆了一個社會的創傷，這個由天安門之後的時間中國。但是，十年中期鄧小平點燃了國內經濟改革，中國已經在世界正常化後，後天安門孤立的地位。政治，但是，仍然凍結和國家仍然存在明顯的重手。隻有在本十年期間，在江澤民的統治下光複初期和胡錦濤，有共產黨開始以非常有限的政治改革試驗。與各具特色的“民主”改革涉及的黨的官員我的討論表明，我們之間有多遠，他們將進行嚴格的界限。
因此，當考慮到60年，中華人民共和國的記錄全部是喜憂參半。雖然它取得了重大的，所以是對比和那些同樣的成就，揭露矛盾。在許多部門，每一項改革滋生新的問題和挑戰。中國走過了漫長的道路，但它仍然有很長的路要走。
The question for China's leaders was never whether to modernize — but how. During the Maoist era a variety of economic models were experimented with, each of which achieving some modicum of growth. Yet all of them left China lagging far behind the West and East Asia. The costs of some initiatives, like the Great Leap Forward from 1958 to 1960, were catastrophic in human and environmental terms. It was not until Deng and Chen Yun, another reform-minded Politburo member, returned to power in 1978 from internal exile that the economic course was changed. (See pictures of a new look at old Shanghai.)
Three decades later, the world witnesses the extraordinary results. China is now the world's third largest economy, after the U.S. and Japan, and recently surpassed Germany as the largest exporting nation. Its GNP is on course to overtake Japan's by 2010 and perhaps that of the U.S. by 2020. (Read "Why the China-U.S. Trade Dispute Is Heating Up.")
30年後，世界目睹了非凡的成果。中國目前是世界第三大經濟體，僅次於美國和日本，最近超過美國成為最大出口國德國。它的國民生產總值將超越日本的2010年，也許是美國在2020年。
Much of this dynamic growth has been export-driven, benefiting the low- and medium-technology sectors of the economy. But China is beginning to move up the technological ladder and is becoming more innovative in certain sectors such as electronics and biotechnology. The country has become a manufacturing superpower and the workshop of the world, producing two-thirds of all photocopiers, microwaves and shoes; 60% of cell phones; 55% of DVDs; over half of all digital cameras; 30% of personal computers; and 75% of children's toys, plus a wide variety of other goods.
As a result of its economic boom, China has amassed a staggering $2 trillion in foreign exchange — the largest reserves in the world — and is beginning to invest significant amounts abroad. Today, 37 Chinese multinational corporations rank among FORTUNE's top 500 global companies, up from just six a decade ago, while 450 out of the FORTUNE 500 American companies have production lines and a business presence in China. China has become the world's largest recipient of foreign direct investment. To fuel its economic boom, China's voracious and insatiable appetite for raw materials has led it to absorb large amounts of global commodities. China now consumes 16% of global energy resources and is the world's third largest consumer of oil. (Read "Can China Save the World's Economy?")
這種動態的增長大多是出口導向型，有利於低的經濟和中等技術領域。但是，中國目前開始轉向了科技水平，日益創新，在某些行業，如電子和生物技術。該國已經成為製造業超級大國，世界工廠，生產三分之二的複印機，微波爐和鞋的三分之二，60％的手機，55％的DVD，超過了所有的數碼相機的一半，30％的個人電腦;和75％的兒童玩具，加上其他商品種類繁多。
由於其經濟繁榮的結果，中國積累了驚人的外匯2萬億-世界上最大的儲備-並開始大量投資海外。今天，37個跨國公司中位列財富500強的全球性公司，從隻有10年前的6個，而走出的美國財富500強企業450家生產線，在中國業務。中國已成為世界上最大的外國直接投資最多。為了推動它的經濟繁榮，中國的貪婪和對原材料貪得無厭的胃口導致它吸收大量的全球商品。中國現在消費的16％，全球能源資源，是世界第三大石油消費國。
But the economic explosion has come at a high environmental cost. China's air and water are among the most polluted on earth and it is the leading emitter of greenhouse gases. The environmental nightmare is hurting public health. Malignant cancer now accounts for 28.5% of deaths while respiratory diseases account for 13.1%, according to the 2008 China Statistical Yearbook. China's growth has been dynamic, but it is also double-edged.
Reinventing a Nation
Mao spent his lifetime trying to transform Chinese society in his utopian, socialist and revolutionary vision. He tried to create a "new socialist man" and an equitable society. His regime succeeded in providing the world's largest population with food to eat, housing and basic services. Social vices were eliminated, literacy was expanded, life expectancy increased and infant mortality decreased. These were no small achievements. But Mao's efforts to impose socialism had a deadening effect on urban and rural society alike, as political movements repeatedly harassed different groups of people.
By the time Deng and his compatriots came to power in 1978, China was traumatized, tired and alienated by 30 years of Maoist experiments and totalitarian controls. Deng's wisdom was to recognize that the state needed to retreat from society and the economy if the creative and entrepreneurial spirits of ordinary Chinese were to be unleashed.
Three decades later, Chinese society has fully blossomed. Chinese today experience a wide variety of personal freedoms in daily life that they and their ancestors had never known. Chinese state and society have also reconnected with the past, emphasizing Confucian and Buddhist values. More than 200 million people have been lifted out of poverty and the members of a growing middle class with disposable income travel abroad, invest in the stock market, dine out and decorate their stylish apartments with furniture purchased from stores like Ikea. Access to education has become far more widespread. Some 21 million students attend university today, while an estimated 300,000 study abroad every year. Approximately 206 million Chinese children attend primary and secondary schools. Basic literacy is almost universal in China today, while it was roughly 20% in 1949. Still, China remains a poor country by global standards: some 207 million people still live below World Bank poverty levels on less than $1.25 per day. See pictures of China's infrastructure boom.
重塑一個國家
毛澤東度過了他一生中，努力改變他的空想的社會主義和革命理想中的社會。他試圖建立一個“社會主義新人”和一個公平的社會。他的政權成功地提供世界上最大的人口吃的食物，住房和基本服務。社會醜惡現象被市場淘汰，識字擴大，預期壽命增加，嬰兒死亡率下降。這些都是不小的成就。但是毛澤東的努力，對社會主義對城市和農村社會的隔音效果同樣，作為政治運動一再騷擾不同的人群。
等到鄧小平和他的同胞在1978年上台，中國是創傷，疲倦和30毛派控製實驗和極權年疏遠。鄧小平的智慧是承認，國家需要退出社會和經濟中，如果普通的創造性和創業精神將被釋放。
30年後，中國社會全麵開花。中國今天的經驗是在日常生活中的個人自由，種類繁多，他們和他們的祖先從來沒有過。中國國家和社會也與過去重新連接，強調儒教和佛教的價值觀。超過200萬人擺脫了貧困和不斷增長的可支配收入的國外旅行的中產階級的成員，投資於股票市場，外出吃飯，並與來自裝飾商店購買宜家家具的時尚公寓。受教育的機會已經變得更加普遍。大約21萬學生上大學的今天，盡管估計有30萬，每年出國留學。大約2.060億中國兒童接受小學和中學。基本的識字是在中國幾乎是普遍的今天，雖然它在1949年20％左右。盡管如此，中國仍然是一個由全球標準貧窮的國家：一些2.07億人仍低於世界銀行貧困水平的生活費不到每天$ 1.25。
With economic growth have come demographic shifts and life improvements. Live expectancy has shot up while infant mortality has plummeted. In 1949 more than 90% of the population lived in rural areas; given the expansion of urban areas, slightly more than half (721 million) do today, according to official statistics. But China's increasing urbanization and spreading industrialization have resulted in a considerable loss of arable land and forcible evictions, sparking much resentment against local officials.
Chinese intellectual life has also improved, although over time this remains one of the real dark spots of Chinese communist rule. For six decades intellectuals have been persecuted, harassed and forced to conform and create within various boundaries set by the state. They continually probe the boundaries — until the state pushes back. Despite continuing controls, public and private discourse in China has never been so free. The blogosphere and Internet are alive with unbridled discussion — unless and until it crosses the state censor's invisible hand. (Read "Avoiding Censors, Chinese Authors Go Online.")
中國知識分子的生活也有所改善，但隨著時間的推移這仍然是中共統治的黑暗現實景點之一。 60年來的知識分子受到迫害，騷擾和被迫遵守和創造在國家規定的各種界限。他們不斷探索邊界-直到國家往前推。盡管繼續控製，公共和私人話語在中國從未如此自由。博客和互聯網的活著的肆無忌憚的討論-除非它跨越國家檢查員的無形之手。
While China has made much progress, it still has many blemishes. Treatment of ethnic minorities — particularly Tibetans and Uighurs — is the Achilles' heel of the regime, as violent riots last year and in recent months have clearly demonstrated. Crime and corruption remain serious problems, while cities struggle to provide basic services to the huge "floating population" of 100 million or so migrants. Income disparities (as measured by the Gini coefficient) are now approaching the highest in the world. China has again become a stratified society — just what Mao sought to eliminate. Still, given the unprecedented scale and nature of China's socioeconomic change over the past 30 years, the country's relative stability is commendable.
Politics Not as Usual
At first glance, China's political system has not changed much since 1949. It is still a Leninist system, dominated by the CCP and an oligarchy of its self-selected leaders, which tolerates no opposition. The Party's powerful Organization Department oversees all major appointments in the country, and one must really be a party member to get ahead professionally. Party and government organs remain essentially as they were six decades ago, copied from the Soviet Union.
But while much of the structure and essential nature of the system remains largely the same, the substance and process of politics has changed quite a lot. The leadership and the 76 million party members are better educated and their recruitment and promotion is much more meritocratic. Competence is now rewarded. In the past, there existed only two exit paths from officialdom: purges and death. Now mandatory retirement is firmly implemented. Instead of being a totalitarian party dominated by a single leader, the CCP today is an authoritarian party with a collective leadership. The leaders themselves — at least those I have witnessed — are now remarkably self-assured and relatively sophisticated. Marxist-Leninist ideology plays little, if any, role in their decision-making. The policy process is more consultative, although still lacking in transparency. Much emphasis is put on governance and officials at all levels undergo required training in public administration.
On the whole, the Communist Party has proven itself to be remarkably adaptable and open to borrowing elements from different countries and political systems. As a result it is becoming a hybrid party with elements of East Asian neo-authoritarianism, Latin American corporatism and European social democracy all grafted to Confucianist-Leninist roots. The uprising in Tiananmen and across China in 1989 and the subsequent collapse of communist systems in Europe and the Soviet Union were instructive experiences for the CCP. Many lessons were drawn, but the principal one was to remain flexible and adaptable, not dogmatic and rigid. (Read "Beijing Clamps Down After Call for Democracy.")
雖然中國已取得了很大進展，但仍然有許多汙點。處理少數民族-特別是藏族和維吾爾人-是致命的製度腳跟，因為暴力騷亂去年，在最近幾個月已清楚地表明。犯罪和腐敗仍是嚴重問題，而城市鬥爭提供基本服務的巨大的“流動人口100多萬移民”。收入差距（衡量的基尼係數）正接近世界上最高的。中國再次成為等級森嚴的社會-這是毛澤東設法消除。盡管如此，由於規模空前，中國在過去30年來的社會經濟變化的性質，該國的相對穩定，是值得讚揚的。
政治不作為常住
乍一看，中國的政治體製並沒有太大的改變自1949年以來。這仍然是一個列寧主義的製度，主要由中共和寡頭政治的自我選擇的領導人，而不容反對。黨的強大組織部負責該國所有主要的任命，而必須是一個真正共產黨員的專業獲得成功。黨政機關基本上與他們60年前，從蘇聯複製。
但在大部分的結構和製度的本質仍然是大致相同的物質和政治進程已經改變了很多。的領導和76萬名黨員受到更好的教育和他們的招聘和晉升得多任人唯才。現在是回報能力。在過去，隻存在兩個官場退出路徑：肅清和死亡。現在強製退休是堅決貫徹執行。而不是一黨極權由一個領導者占主導地位，今天的共產黨是一個獨裁黨的集體領導。領導人自己-至少是那些我親眼看到-現在非常自信，相當複雜。馬克思列寧主義思想少了，在他們的決定如有方麵的作用。該政策更廣泛協商的過程，但仍然缺乏透明度。許多重點放在治理和各級需要接受公共管理培訓官員。
整體而言，共產黨已經證明自己是顯著的適應性和開放的來自不同國家和政治製度的借款要素。因此，它已成為東亞地區其他國家新的元素，權威，拉丁美洲社團和所有嫁接到儒家歐洲的社會民主列寧主義的黨的基層混合。在天安門起義，在中國於1989年，共產主義製度在歐洲和蘇聯瓦解，隨後為中共的指導經驗。許多教訓，得出，但主要之一是保持靈活性和適應性，而不是教條和僵化。
Will the Party's adaptability and the nation's continuing economic growth be sufficient to sustain it in power indefinitely? Perhaps. The CCP's sustenance to date has certainly surprised many leading China watchers. But, going forward, the major challenge to the Party will likely be its ability to deliver adequate "public goods" to the population: health care, education, environmental protection and other social services. Providing stability and ever increasing personal wealth will not be enough to guarantee the Party indefinite legitimacy — it must continuously improve the quality of life of its citizens. This is China's new revolution: the revolution of rising expectations.
Taking On the World
Any consideration of China's transformation since 1949 must recognize the dramatic improvement in China's global posture. Sixty years ago the new People's Republic was cut off from the world, having diplomatic recognition only from a relatively small number of nations. It was excluded from the U.N. It soon became embroiled in the Korean War and the Cold War, which brought further isolation. Despite some marginal trade with Western Europe following the 1954 Geneva Conference on Indochina, China was cut off from international trade, finance and aid. As a result, its economy stagnated. See pictures of "China Goes to Africa."
以在世界
任何中國的轉型考慮1949年以來必須認識到，在中國的全球態勢顯著改善。 60年前，新的人民共和國被切斷世界，而隻從數量相對較少的國家的外交承認。它被排除在聯合國很快就卷入了朝鮮戰爭和冷戰，這使進一步孤立。盡管出現了一些與西歐之後，1954年日內瓦會議印度支那的邊際貿易，中國被切斷的國際貿易，金融和援助。因此，經濟停滯不前。
Six decades later, China has fully embraced globalization at home and has burst onto the world's stage in a largely positive fashion. It now has both interests and a presence in parts of the world completely new to China — such as Latin America and the Middle East — and enjoys rising international prestige. Beijing has generally managed its relations well with the major world powers: the U.S., Russia and the E.U. It has transformed its regional diplomacy in Asia, reasserted a role in Africa and become much more deeply engaged with international organizations and across a range of global-governance issues. China used to eschew multilateralism, distrusting it as some kind of (Western) conspiracy. While Beijing remains a selective multilateralist globally — engaging on some issues and not others — the broad trend has been positive and in the direction of deeper contributions to the world community.
China is also more proactive on global security issues ("hot spots" as Chinese analysts like to describe them). When natural disasters now strike, such as the South and Southeast Asian tsunami in 2004 and the Pakistan earthquake the following year, China is there to provide physical and financial assistance. China now has over 2,100 peacekeeping personnel deployed in about a dozen nations worldwide — more than any other member of the U.N. Security Council. This is one tangible expression of China's strong commitment to the U.N. Today, indeed, the PRC may be the greatest advocate of the U.N. among the major powers. (Read "China Takes on the World.")
60年後，中國已全麵接受在家全球化和如今已走上世界舞台爆裂的大多是積極的方式。現在有兩種利益在世界全新的中國零部件和存在-如拉丁美洲和中東地區-並享有國際威望不斷上升。北京普遍管理與世界主要大國的關係很好：美國，俄羅斯和歐盟它改變了其在亞洲地區外交，重申在非洲的作用，變得更加深刻與國際組織的參與和橫跨全球治理的一係列問題。中國用於避開多邊主義，不信任的一些（西方）陰謀是什麽種類。盡管北京依然是全球多邊主義的選擇-在某些問題上，而不是其他人-的大趨勢是積極的和更深的貢獻國際社會的方向進行。
中國也更在全球安全問題（“熱點作為中國分析家”積極描述一下它們）。現在當自然災害襲擊，如南亞和東南亞海嘯在2004年和巴基斯坦地震的第二年，中國是否有提供物質和財政援助。中國目前已經擁有超過2,100維持和平行動的大約12個國家的全球-比任何聯合國安理會其他成員更部署人員。這是一個明確的表達了中國堅定地致力於聯合國的今天，事實上，中共可能是在大國之間的最大主張聯合國
In the field of arms control, China used to be a serious proliferator of missiles and missile components, and a significant seller of conventional arms. But, over time, China has signed or ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty and the Biological and Conventional Weapons Convention, has joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group and has essentially adhered to the Missile Technology Control Regime (although it is not a member). This is not the China that the world used to know: a "revisionist" destabilizing power that sought to overturn the international order. Today, the People's Republic of China is deeply involved across the globe and is increasingly an upholder of, and contributor to, the existing international order. China has been a considerable beneficiary of the post – Cold War order, which has allowed Beijing to establish a presence in regions and international institutions that was not previously possible.
China's strategic posture is also changing. Its military modernization program has made giant strides in recent years — and they will be on display in the massive military parade in central Beijing on Oct. 1. In many categories China's military is the best in Asia and in some sectors is approaching NATO standards. The People's Liberation Army still has no global strike capacity, however, other than its intercontinental ballistic missiles and cyberwarfare capabilities.
Still, many countries worry about China's rise and global expansion, even though it has, to date, been outwardly peaceful. Public opinion polls in Europe and the U.S. regularly reflect a negative image of China, while concerns over economic competition and job losses are growing in Europe, Africa and Latin America. Substantial strains remain in Beijing's ties with three of China's most important neighbors: Australia, India and Japan. Even relations with Russia, which have achieved historic highs since the collapse of the Soviet Union, have run into obstacles. This is unsurprising. As Beijing expands its influence and begins to flex its new muscle on the world stage, it's to be expected that China will engender occasional discord with other nations. (Read "The China-India Rivalry: Watching the Border.")
中國的戰略態勢也在發生變化。它的軍事現代化計劃已在最近幾年闊步前進-他們將在中部的大規模閱兵展示北京將於10月1日。在許多類別的中國軍隊是亞洲最好的，在某些行業已接近北約標準。在解放軍仍沒有全球打擊能力，但是，除了它的洲際彈道導彈和網絡戰能力。
盡管如此，許多國家擔心中國的崛起和全球擴張，即使它，迄今為止，被表麵的和平。在歐洲的民意調查，美國經常反映了中國的負麵形象，而對經濟競爭和就業的擔憂在歐洲，非洲和拉丁美洲的增長。大量菌株繼續與三個中國最重要的鄰國：澳大利亞，印度和日本北京的關係。即使與俄羅斯的關係，取得了自蘇聯解體的曆史高位，已經遇到的困難。這並不令人奇怪。隨著北京擴大其影響力，並開始在世界舞台上展示其新的肌肉，這可以預料，中國將與其他國家產生分歧偶爾
Future Shock?
Some historians of China think they see the telltale signs of dynastic decline: government corruption, social discontent (especially in the countryside), autocratic rulers and a militarizing state. Some contemporary China experts also voice their doubts — proclaiming the regime fragile and the political system ossified — while economists question how long the dynamic growth can continue.
While the system and country have weaknesses and challenges, the Sinological landscape is littered with its naysayers and critics. The People's Republic of China has endured for six decades and has overcome a wide variety of serious domestic crises, border wars and international isolation. Its strengths and adaptability have repeatedly been underestimated by outside observers. One thing is certain: China will remain a country of complexity and contradictions — which will keep China watchers and Chinese alike guessing about its future indefinitely.
Shambaugh is professor and director of the China Policy Program at George Washington University in Washington, D.C., nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, and currently a visiting scholar at the China Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing. His latest book is China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation
在中國一些曆史學家認為他們看到了王朝衰落的蛛絲馬跡：政府腐敗，社會不滿（特別是在農村），專製統治者和軍事化狀態。當代中國的一些專家也表達他們的疑慮-脆弱，宣布政權和政治體製僵化-而經濟學家的問題多久可以繼續蓬勃發展。
雖然係統和國家的弱點和挑戰，漢學到處都是它的反對者和批評者。在中國人民共和國已持續了60年，並克服了嚴重的國內危機，邊界戰爭和各種國際孤立。其優勢和適應性一再被低估了外部觀察員。有一點是肯定的：中國將仍然是複雜和矛盾的國家-這將保證中國觀察家和中國都對未來的猜測下去。
沈大偉是教授和中國政策項目主任喬治華盛頓大學在華盛頓特區，非居民在布魯金斯學會高級研究員，現為北京社會科學院中國研究院訪問學者。他的最新著作是中國共產黨：萎縮性和適應
