石油已經或已接近底部，現在是投資的最佳時機

不用說現在大家現在已經知道，最近stupid Dollar在高位，導致大宗商品暴跌。
石油已經或已接近底部，現在是投資的最佳時機！！！

沒有股票經驗的投資者經常會問：有錢就是不知道怎麽投，投什麽。

石油ETF如： UWTI, UCO, USO等等，隻適合於短期操作，掙錢就跑。
如果想穩定，長期投資，還是要投資一些大的公司，短期穩定的投資也可以考慮。
 

到目前為止，在2015年，石油價格暴跌16％。然而，在同一時期，燃油價格卻已經躍升6％。這是一個不正常的現象。石油在底部或接近於底部！

曆史證明，如果你知道在哪裏投資, 利用這種不正常現象，在未來數月make 翻幾翻的漲幅。
同誌們這是一個千載難逢的機會，要抓住阿！！！！！！！

There's a huge supply of oil in the market. The most recent EIA Petroleum Status Report showed an inventory build of 10.3 million barrels of oil, more than double analysts' expectations for an increase of 4 million.

你可以從下麵的圖表看，對於大多數2015年，庫存（藍色）已不隻是一直在增長......他們一直在持續超出預期（橙色線）。

一般情況下，如果他們看到供應過剩，產油國的生產速度就會減慢，但現在的情況是他們一直沒有這樣做而是不減產。石油出入庫超出預期，無處為原油走，存儲價格溢價，石油出入庫的唯一途徑之一是油價下跌。

Well-respected analysts at both JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) 相信油價可能會維持低於50美元，至少在2015年的上半年...可能還要低，現在到了45，會到40嗎？如果市場不能找到一種方法，to drain the current surplus就有可能。再加上現在的強勢美元更增加了這種可能性。

另一種有趣的現象是：根據EIA的數據，燃料的平均價格（所有等級和配方），從1月中旬以來一直在穩步節節攀升，盡管石油過剩，現在是2.49美元。

為了進一步證明這一點脫節，我用另一個圖表來顯示。下麵的圖表顯示了裂解價差，這是業內的行話為原油和石油產品從中提取之間的價格差：

當crack spread上升，則意味著該石油提取物，如燃料，上升比原油的價格要快。年初至今，價差已經從3.50美元躍升至19.90美元 - 增加了469％！！！The current spread is also twice as wide as the 20-year average of $8.73.

而large spread不利於大多數石油生產國，但是it's great for煉油廠 -- 即把原油到餾分油（像汽油）的公司。當投入成本（油）低，但燃油價格不斷上漲，這些煉油廠可以捕捉到更大的利潤空間。these refineries can capture bigger margins。

結論1：投資煉油廠應該比單純投資原油有‘錢’圖，如果油一直處於低位。

And there's one best-in-breed refiner that is not only cheap from a fundamental standpoint, but also exceptional at squeezing dollars out of low-grade crude: Valero (NYSE: VLO).

所有美國煉油廠的，我最喜歡VLO，因為其龐大的規模，獨特的技術優勢和較低的估值相對於行業。


對比原油圖，你會發現油價暴跌的時候，特別是上一個星期，它反而上升，，，汽油價格不降反而上升，就是這個道理。當然也有煉油工人罷工的因數。

下麵是從它的網頁抄來的：

Valero operates 15 refineries, with a capacity of 2.9 million barrels per day -- 15.7% of U.S. daily oil consumption reported in 2014. In addition to wholesaling its petroleum products to other distributors, Valero also operates its own fuel stations in nearly every state. This allows unique price controls for its final product.

The company operates two unique and proprietary devices called hydrocrackers, which are uncommon in the industry. Hydrocracking units transform cheaper, lower-grade feedstock (oil) into high-quality distillates (gasoline) at more efficient rates than the traditional equipment used throughout most of the industry.

Valero's two hydrocrackers, located at its Port Arthur refinery and St. Charles plant, give it an added advantage over competitors when it comes to margin and the creation of products such as jet fuel, kerosene and diesel. VLO has been increasing output of these hydrocrackers over the past two years and is continuing to push for further expansion.

但真正的機會在於一個事實，即VLO現在買油比去年同期便宜50％，而其銷售價格隻降低了35％。令人難以置信的是，其股價比同時期去年還低，盡管有便宜的成本以及增加了消費和提高利了潤率。

When Valero hit a high of $59.69 in May 2014, oil was trading at $100 per barrel and a gallon of gasoline cost $3.76. Today, crude is trading for $50 and gas is at $2.45 -- a much better profit ratio and overall environment for refiners -- but VLO shares are only trading for ~$58.

I expect VLO's earnings per share (EPS) to hit $6.50 in 2015. Using a forward P/E of 10 (a realistic multiple looking at five years of forward P/E history) puts VLO at a fair value of $65. That's only 11% above current prices. But using my profit amplifying strategy, we could make 69% in only three months.

我的計劃是買VLO Jun 55 Calls for $5.90 or less.

This call option has a delta of 65, which means it will move roughly $0.65 for every dollar that VLO, but it costs a fraction of the price of the stock.

The trade breaks even at $60.90 ($55 strike price plus $5.90 options premium), which is 4% above current prices.

If VLO hits my $65 price target, the call options will be worth at least $10 ($65 stock target minus $55 strike price). That means we can make 70% from an 11% increase in share price.

請注意這個策略采用的是：the type of lower-risk/high-reward trades Jared publishes each week in his new Profit Amplifier newsletter。

總之油的底部，你的投資機會！！！！！！！！！

除此以外還可以考慮分散投資，其他大的石油公司如XOM：

多麽漂亮的瀑布呀！buy Dip!!!

XOM just raised 8 billion in credit offerings and has better credit rating than the USA...................

Now if we could just figure which companies they will acquire.......... Those will be buys now....

還有：

EOG disclosed plans to grow its uncompleted stock by 85 to

~285 wells, or approximately 16% of the number it expects to drill this year.

這樣的好幾會，，，我就是沒錢！


煉油公司：好幾會！！！

股價低的大公司！

結束語：

機會在眼前，看你抓不抓得住。

股市有風險，請您慎重考慮。

不是投資建議，請自行分析判斷。

Mar.15, 2015