又到賺錢容易時？

昨天說市場在假摔，今日即繼續向上突破，驗證了我前不久所提出的道指7987，SPX837為下一目標位的設想。有意思的是，今天是納指率先發力，出現了三大指數輪番走強的局麵，可見市場後續強勢可期。短線繼續維持對SPX866、道指83xx的判斷；再往上看到多少？891，952，現在說意義不很大，羅馬不是一天建成的，本輪開漲以來，道指我也是先看7260，然後7500，然後7987……反正隻要趨勢在，就大膽hold。SPX頸線位上移至786附近，跌破此線則宣布趨勢崩潰。

 

大多數時候股市上賺錢是不易的，大多數人在股市上是不怎麽賺錢的。

 

然而現在，股市又到了make easy money的時候。SPX從666起步，兩周多時間輕舟已過萬重山。期間甚至都沒有像樣的回檔。在這種情況下，你所有要做的就是buy and hold，let your profits RUN。怎麽聽起來很耳熟？是的，這種投資策略在過去一年多以來屢遭敗績，幾乎被人們放棄，這三周卻又變成最行之有效的辦法，真是三十年河東轉河西。這說明了什麽？我今天不是要探討投資策略的，我想說的是，市場自身運行規律已經發生了某種微妙的變化。

 

打開K線圖，這種連續大陽之後繼續拉大陽的現象似乎已經很久不見了。

 

GDP下降了？沒問題，人們預計的本來更糟糕呢。

 

失業率越來越高？Fine，等到失業率升到12％沒準就是經濟見底的最有效信號，市場巴不得失業率降得更快一些呢……

 

IBM，GOOGLE們也要裁員？無所謂，反正虱子多了不咬人，嘿嘿

 

技術指標超買？who cares? 漲了這麽多不是還在8000點以下嘛。

 

…………

 

你能感覺到這些市場心態的微妙變化嗎？

 

前期上漲的急先鋒花旗今日下跌，大盤卻依然保持了上揚。這是個好現象，說明市場弱化了前期炒作超跌反彈的預期，進而向縱深擴展，借一句套話，有點兒像可持續發展的樣子。如果花旗走軟，大盤可保短線無礙；如果花旗再次發力，也將會給予大盤上揚的動力。

 

總之，不盲目看多，更不盲目看空，隻要關鍵位置不破，趨勢尚在，手裏的貨就要拿緊了。

 

前幾天在GOOGLE 論壇上看到一段西人關於SPX的討論，貼上來和大家消遣，請注意日期是3月20日，SPX768左右。

 

 
From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 08:33:49 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 12:33 pm
Subject: begin to short sp 500 again..
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it is time to short sp 500, take ur profit while u can.

From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 11:50:51 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 3:50 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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Totally agree. We are going through the floor, much lower than those
"market experts" predicted before. S&P500 on 500. That sounds good for
this market, this economy and this government.

 

From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 12:03:12 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Fri, Mar 20 2009 4:03 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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agreed...  you guys are the only realists
on the boards.. follks are talking about rallys..
I guess it could rally before the bottom ..kind
of like a flaming fireball rolling down hill and
before it hits the bottom it rolls up a small bump
or two

  
From: [e-mail]
Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2009 13:08:00 -0700 (PDT)
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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The sooner the markets go down, the sooner I can go long again.

On Mar 20, 11:03 am, [e-mail] wrote:

  
[e-mail]    View profile   Translated (View Original) 
  More options Mar 23, 12:39 pm 

From: [e-mail]
Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 08:39:20 -0700 (PDT)
Local: Mon, Mar 23 2009 12:39 pm
Subject: Re: begin to short sp 500 again..
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You think it is time to short when the technicals indicate we are
breaking out of a downtrend.  Good luck amateur.  You're just guessing
at this point, hopefully you realize that you are guessing.

[new88]

感謝!一直不敢再進場,因為覺得已經漲了這麽久了,應該有個像樣的回調了,結果左等右等還沒見,嗬嗬.

[隨機行走]

謝謝！每日必讀，受益匪淺。