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Inflation vs Deflation

(2008-11-06 18:16:50) 下一個

There is a good discussion about inflation and deflation. Here is some my thoughts.

Reasons for deflation.

1) Unemployment rate will go higher;

2) Consumers do not have money to spend;

3) Deleveraging will reduce wealth among all kind of assets;

4) Economy is in recession;

5) This recession will be a bad one

6) Money velocity slows down significantly;

Reasons for Inflation:

1) Inflation is the only solution to solve US high debt issues;

2) Fed would print money to stimulate economy;

3) High Deficit effcts;

My personal opinions:

1) Cash could be a good choice in short term;

2) Investment better has cash flow incomes;

3) Gold could be a good choice in both inflation and deflation period.

4) We would have a deflation first, then inflation late.
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