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熊市的特征和我的打法

(2008-07-03 05:05:00) 下一個
Every bear market contains many powerful up and down hank shakings. That's how retail investors losing their shirts.

A typical bear market midterm bottoming and rallying process has the following symptoms:
1. weaker sectors stop sliding.
2. strong sectors start to follow the slide.
3. extreme bearish sentiment.
4. bottoming process always has up and down shaking. 把熊心振歪,把牛們嚇得尿褲.

看一下今天的盤, Financial 不大掉了, 強的 commodities sectors 大掉了. 牛們連站著撒尿的地方也沒了. 而偏偏在這時, 廁所就要蓋好了, 牛們舒服地撒尿的時後就要到了.

A typical bear market midterm topping process has the following symptoms:
1. all sectors, regardless strong or weak, keep moving higher and higher every day and disconnected from the FA
2. small and garbage stocks suddenly fly high like the sky has no limit.
3. indices kept penestrating resistances and 熊熊們要尿了. 牛牛們是每天高歌.

這時, 有腦的熊們發現, 主要的 200MA resistances 就是破不了. trendline 還是向下的. 於是, 這批熊的精英建空倉, 貼了"廁所跳水"貼,等著吃魚.

我這兩天先到熊窩睡睡, 找個熊廁所安穩的尿一尿. 時機到了, 再到牛棚渾.

熊市的打法是: 
1. short: 放心的擺著, 是大奶, 不用擔心.
2. long:  小心的扛著, 跟二奶一樣, 一不對, 就扔了. 
3. cash:  自己留著, 隨身用公文袋帶著, 牛棚和熊窩兩邊跑.

這就是我的打法.
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