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Dumb Money 逃亡, Smart Money 進駐

(2008-10-05 12:43:46) 下一個


牛經滄海

10/05/2008

Where is the market now? It is in an unknown territory. No doubts about it.

Last Friday at close, VXO was 52and QQV 50. These readings put the level of fear to among the highest in the last twenty years. Such numbers were reached previously only in the infamous 87 crashes, the 98 financial storm, the Sept 11 panic, and the Sept of 2002. At each such occurrence, the market bounced back smartly. Image that you bought some EBAY at 13 a share, CSCO at 10 or DIA at 84. You did not make a fortune, but you should certainly be fine. These are no-brainers. You may pick much better names to make ease doubles.

[RIGHT CLICK IMAGE & SELECT VIEW IMAGE TO ENLARGE]

VXO at its decade peak

I suspect that the dumb money is fleeing the market. I experienced extremely small odd lots when my order to buy was filled last Friday. Institutions will not sell in such odd batches in general. By the way, mutual funds and pension funds are considered as dumb money by my standards. The people drive them with little or no insight about market. There are also politics and publicity involved.


Simply by reading the sentiment on the DQ board, it is not hard to see both bears and bulls were toasted last week. It was painful, but a good sign of bottom.

It is evident that smart money is creeping into the market. The most obvious example is that Warren Buffet accelerated his buying binge recently. Understandably, he claims that he does not time the market. Uh, do you really believe that? Yes, he cut preferred deals that are beyond the reach of you and me, yet it is another indicator he smells the blood and the opportunity won’t last forever.

Another evidence is that the fight to swallow up WB between C and WFC. If it is far from the end of a mess, why WFC bother to jump on the deal with $15B while the market only give half of that value, and C only offered $1 (but for banking part)? Not to mention other participators are sniffing around to get a bite.

I have checked the alpha readings of 200 sectors including the top 100 stock group and the bottom 100 stock group. There are three or four sectors, food, cleaning product etc, are still bearing a positive alpha reading. What delighted me is that the Top 100 group has weakened sharply in the last two months, while the bottom 100 batch did not deteriorate much further this year. The bottom 100’s strength or alpha readings are –81 on Jan 25, -86 on Jun 27, -83 on Aug 29 and –87 on Oct 3. The variations are smaller than 10%, which implies that the bad cannot get much worse. On contrast, the top 100’s strength are 130 on Jan 25, 178 on Jun 27, 131 on Aug 29 and 63 on Oct 3, respectively. Its variation is greater than 50%, which means the good were shot down at a blink.

The readings fit into the profile of a bottom very well. During a typical downturn cycle, investors at first flee to “good” stocks, which will make the top stocks even stronger than a go-go market. Such a concentration of hot money soon inflates the hot stocks to a mini-bubble. As all bubbles will burst, this elite group of names finally got busted in the last few weeks. Once the last oasis is gone, a new cycle will start from ashes.

Are we precisely at the dividing moment of the transition? I do not know, as laways. I only know that it is very, very likely.

[ 機器翻譯版 ]

呆金錢逃亡,物有所值的進駐

牛經滄海

市場在哪裏呢?它是在一個未知的領域。沒有任何疑問。

上周五收盤時, VXO 是 52 , QQV 是 50 。讀了這些水平的恐懼中最高在過去的 20 年。這樣的讀數達到以前隻在臭名昭著的 87 機, 98 金融風暴,在 9 月 11 日的恐慌,以及 2002 年 9 月。在每一個此類事件,市場反彈強勁。試想, EBAY 你買在 $13 ,思科在 $10 或 DIA 在 $84 。你沒有發財,但你當然應該賺了。這些都是不費腦筋的買入 。您可以選擇更好的公司,輕鬆翻番。

我懷疑是阿呆的錢逃離市場。我上周五購買時體驗到非常散碎的賣單。機構一般不會出售這種奇怪的批次。順便說一下,共同基金和養老基金被視為呆錢,由我的標準。他們很少或根本沒有深入了解市場。也有政治和宣傳參與。

隻要通過閱讀大千板的情緒,人們不難看到熊和牛隊上周飽受煎烤。這是痛苦的,但一個良好的跡象的底部。

很顯然,聰明的錢是悄悄進入市場。最明顯的例子是,巴菲特加快他最近購買熱潮。可以理解的是,他聲稱,他並不在市場的時間。嗯,你真的相信嗎?是的,他的特權交易非你我能及,但卻是他的另一個指標的血液嗅覺和機會不會永遠持續下去。

另一個證據是,爭鬥吞掉 WB 之間的 C 和 WFC 。如非黎明即在,為什麽 WFC 會拿 $15B 跳出來爭 WB ,而市場隻能提供一半的價值,和 C 隻提供 1 美元的(但對銀行的一部分) ?更不用提其他參與者都在虎視眈眈,垂涎分得一杯羹。

我已經檢查了 200 部門 de 的 ALPHA 讀數,包括前 100 名股票組和 100 的底部股票組。有三個或四個部門,食品,清潔生產等,尚為正值。我高興的是,最強的 100 個小組的強度已在過去兩個月裏減弱,而底部 100 批次今年沒有進一步惡化。 100 底部的強度讀 : 1 月 25 日 -81 , 6 月 27 日 -86 , 8 月 29 日 -83, 10 月 3 日 -87 。這一變化小於 10 % ,這意味著壞得不能更糟。相反,排名前 100 位的是 1 月 25 日 130 , 6 月 27 日 178 , 8 月 29 日 131 和 10 月 3 日的 63 。它的變化大於 50 % ,這意味著好股票被擊落。

上述讀數非常好地切合股市的走低過程。在一個典型的衰退周期,投資者首先逃往“良好”的股市,這將使強股市更強。這樣一個集中的熱錢很快將熱門股票膨脹起來,以形成一個小泡沫。正如所有的泡沫將會破裂,這個精英集團的名字終於在過去幾個星期破裂。一旦最後的綠洲已經一去不複返了,一個新的周期將從灰燼開始。

我們正是在分裂的時刻過渡?我不知道。我隻知道,這是非常,非常可能。

Disclaim: The author is not a Registered Investment Advisor or a Broker/Dealer. The author ’ s discussions do not serve as recommendations or suggestions for buying or selling any stocks or other instruments. The information contained in the blog is provided as is without warranty of any kind, expressed or implied, including, but not limited to, any implied warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose.

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牛經滄海 回複 悄悄話 回複萬事達的評論:

Thanks for comments. QQV and VXN are not the best indicator this time since the main concern is centered outside the NASDAQ. IMO, VXO is the best measurement since OEX covers the majority of the companies at issue.
萬事達 回複 悄悄話 不錯,不過,QQN 和VXN 都遠沒有達到曆史高點,跟以前幾次熊市還有很多差距。
longtermInvestor 回複 悄悄話 good article, if ZT, please provide source.
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