Lights, camera

I am not sure that I should be happy that I made the decision to be off the market today. On the one hand, I was one of the majority, obviously, a lots of people make the same desicion, the volume was extremely low. On the other hand, I really do not want to be conventional in terms of trading :)  and I was too conventional today.

You can be guaranted tomorrow's volume will be way high and almost all of those volume will come after 1:30, I definitely will be watching and participating :)

So, What shouled we watch?  two things, how much is the cut, and what is the statement of the future (bias).

For the most part, the street has already decided that fed fund will be cut 25 bsp and future statement will be flexible, the discount rate could be cut as well as a caviar..  so, let's see whether that is right on the money.

If the cut is deep than that-- there is actually  high possibility as by Friday that possibilty is placed by bond trader at more than 50% according to barron -- then, we will see firework on the street, and it will be a nightmare for the shorts. 

If the cut is 25bsp, but the future statement is hawkish, we will be in for a rough ride..

Anyways,  this is the conventional wisdow of the street.  and in this case, you may want play by the convention, do not be too smart :)

It is a very dull day, so, just be prepared what do to tomorrow.  long or short, it is wise to not pre-condition into one way thinking, then, you will be for a big surprise.